Study: Sell ACC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ACC when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and RSI is below 50 and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ACC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-1295.23137653.852262.836537.91-2855.84-7063.060.790.92-0.0062-99.63
2-22016.23135838.464251.835858.62-5409.42-18234.230.790.49-0.053-1693.56
3-14768.38136746.154654.428640.14-6099.28-12756.760.760.65-0.035-1136.03
4-9792.28137653.855829.9111723.19-8433.6-24792.790.690.81-0.016-753.25
5-10886.73134930.7711780.0120582.8-6445.2-25873.871.830.81-0.015-837.44
6-54708.1135838.466882.7420004.71-11140.22-43963.960.620.39-0.061-4208.32
7-13989.21135838.4610342.1825039.49-8212.51-36972.971.260.79-0.016-1076.09
8-30157.69136746.158463.0923923.64-11562.32-40936.940.730.63-0.032-2319.82
9-14107.63135838.4612222.4528958.42-9402.49-38918.921.30.81-0.015-1085.2
10-15889.5138561.547563.1426168.79-15278.92-41585.590.50.79-0.016-1222.27

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 0.92. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 53.85%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.05%, we advise you not to use this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-11-1295.23137653.852262.836537.91-2855.84-7063.060.790.92-0.0062-99.63
atrnil310.23-8277.16134930.7714832.9920914.38-7512.12-11054.71.970.88-0.012-636.7
atrnil26.15-28054.48134930.779888.6613942.92-7512.12-11054.71.320.59-0.053-2158.04
atrtrail33.86-25189.611431121.439153.213191.46-4786.29-11054.71.910.52-0.055-1799.26
200trail21.59-17648.921741323.534439.35118.63-2723.55-3414.141.630.5-0.068-1038.17
200nil21.59-18718.71741323.534439.35118.63-2805.84-3976.251.580.49-0.072-1101.1
200trail31.87-21008.891521313.337131.287677.95-2713.19-3414.142.630.4-0.084-1400.59
200nil31.87-22174.621521313.337131.287677.95-2802.86-3976.252.540.39-0.088-1478.31
atrtrail23.86-33405.211431121.436414.668794.31-4786.29-11054.71.340.37-0.089-2386.09
atrtrail-14.14-41015.771421214.296359.439906.06-4477.89-11054.71.420.24-0.12-2929.7
200trail-12.4-30250.571521313.332510.444413.26-2713.19-3414.140.930.14-0.21-2016.7

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.92. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 53.85%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.05%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ACC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:0.924

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018331 Jan 2018 (-1.27%), 05 Sep 2018 (-0.61%), 21 Sep 2018 (0.79%)
2016107 Nov 2016 (-1.36%)
2015111 May 2015 (3.27%)
2013131 Jan 2013 (0.33%)
2011209 Feb 2011 (-1.63%), 25 May 2011 (-0.17%)
2010224 May 2010 (1.58%), 07 Jun 2010 (1.1%)
2004128 Jun 2004 (0.21%)
2001127 Dec 2001 (-3.53%)
1995122 Nov 1995 (0.64%)



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