Study: Sell ACC when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ACC when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ACC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
17912.1523111247.834026.2914156.32-3031.42-7044.261.331.220.015344.01
224788.6623131056.524664.3411257.83-3584.77-9714.241.31.690.0421077.77
343609.3823131056.526765.2721628.12-4433.91-10800.61.531.980.0551896.06
446826.552314960.876213.9719178.14-4463.23-8013.141.392.170.0662035.94
574761.162316769.57668618554.05-4602.13-8772.911.453.320.0993250.49
694155.42317673.917650.2422542.77-5983.11-120341.283.620.0994093.71
71213932218481.827636.6729386.11-4016.89-7111.111.98.560.135517.84
81160962216672.738951.1928694.91-4520.43-9333.331.985.280.125277.11
995742.422214863.6410667.6728518.42-6700.63-13632.481.592.790.0844351.93
101373492215768.1812439.7128324.44-7035.29-13259.261.773.790.16243.12
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
ACC Performance, X=7, Profit Factor:8.56

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019111 Feb 2019 (-1.04%)
2018206 Mar 2018 (-0.49%), 15 Nov 2018 (4.52%)
2016105 Dec 2016 (1.98%)
2015115 Jun 2015 (-2.95%)
2013106 Mar 2013 (0.37%)
2012119 Jun 2012 (0.37%)
2011124 Jun 2011 (0.72%)
2010107 Jul 2010 (4.67%)
2008129 Jan 2008 (2.57%)
2007126 Mar 2007 (1.61%)
2004119 Jul 2004 (0.04%)
2003125 Mar 2003 (-3.56%)
2002123 Jul 2002 (7.82%)
2001207 Jun 2001 (4.87%), 27 Jun 2001 (1.72%)
2000102 Mar 2000 (14.69%)
1999111 Jun 1999 (1.44%)
1998131 Jul 1998 (8.99%)
1997114 Oct 1997 (3.55%)
1996111 Jul 1996 (8.38%)
1995124 Nov 1995 (0.41%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail25.4443087.44251312528462.1318935.99-5576.69-7681.661.521.640.0421723.5
atrtrail36.235067.89251312527845.2428403.98-5576.69-7681.661.411.520.0321402.72
atrtrail-16.4830335.84251312527481.2424455.19-5576.69-7681.661.341.450.0291213.43
atrnil210.79-87750.132481633.3313412.5318935.99-12190.65-68836.31.10.55-0.043-3656.26
atrnil315.79-1290522442016.6722434.0128403.98-10939.42-68836.32.050.41-0.061-5377.19

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.64. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 52%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.86%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.042, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ACC Performance, Profit Factor:1.64

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019211 Feb 2019 (0.0%), 07 Oct 2019 (-2.77%)
2018206 Mar 2018 (4.63%), 15 Nov 2018 (2.29%)
2016105 Dec 2016 (-2.92%)
2015115 Jun 2015 (-2.8%)
2013106 Mar 2013 (-2.79%)
2012219 Jun 2012 (-2.84%), 20 Jun 2012 (6.25%)
2011124 Jun 2011 (0.24%)
2010107 Jul 2010 (5.02%)
2008129 Jan 2008 (2.99%)
2007126 Mar 2007 (-1.34%)
2004119 Jul 2004 (-3.4%)
2003125 Mar 2003 (-3.24%)
2002123 Jul 2002 (6.19%)
2001207 Jun 2001 (0.71%), 27 Jun 2001 (-3.02%)
2000102 Mar 2000 (-1.3%)
1999111 Jun 1999 (-3.2%)
1998131 Jul 1998 (9.47%)
1997214 Oct 1997 (-3.84%), 15 Oct 1997 (7.51%)
1996111 Jul 1996 (8.3%)
1995124 Nov 1995 (1.39%)



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