Study: Buy ADANIPOWER when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ADANIPOWER when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ADANIPOWER at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
121015.581881044.445631.9617058.82-2404.01-5186.392.341.870.0671167.53
211755.451871138.898247.6617000-4179.83-14992.51.971.260.027653.08
335199.541871138.8913276.4632333.33-5248.7-13793.12.531.610.0541955.53
47794.381861233.3316301.338666.67-7501.12-23487.542.171.090.0095433.02
53737.161861233.3321819.3329666.67-10598.24-39145.912.061.030.0035207.62
6-1746.051861233.3323959.7736697.25-12125.39-43890.871.980.99-0.0015-97
7-10551.761871138.8921442.7439780.02-14604.63-43890.871.470.93-0.0086-586.21
83970.361871138.8920476.6933027.52-12669.68-42230.131.621.030.0035220.58
9-11975.918995014436.6733394.5-15767.33-42941.870.920.92-0.011-665.33
10-20715.681881044.4417061.734862.39-15720.93-43179.121.090.87-0.018-1150.87

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.87. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.58%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.067, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil24.451058202010105019342.9737070.07-8761-17524.912.212.210.115290.99
atrnil36.891150481971236.8431537.9155605.11-8809.74-17524.913.582.090.0916055.18
nilnil-1121015.581881044.445631.9617058.82-2404.01-5186.392.341.870.0671167.53
atrtrail23.4558663.88208124017366.1237070.07-6688.76-17524.912.61.730.0682933.19
atrtrail-15.2146912.081981142.1115494.3529865.1-7003.88-17524.912.211.610.0582469.06
atrtrail34.2141430.151981142.1114809.1127575.74-7003.88-17524.912.111.540.0532180.53

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.21. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 50%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.65%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ADANIPOWER Performance, Profit Factor:2.21

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019215 Apr 2019 (-4.67%), 20 May 2019 (12.52%)
2018310 Oct 2018 (-8.76%), 11 Oct 2018 (18.54%), 29 Nov 2018 (-4.9%)
2017205 Apr 2017 (5.94%), 31 Aug 2017 (-4.38%)
2016317 Feb 2016 (12.21%), 26 May 2016 (-3.97%), 28 Nov 2016 (8.14%)
2014306 Feb 2014 (-3.49%), 31 Mar 2014 (7.93%), 14 May 2014 (9.19%)
2013103 Apr 2013 (-5.6%)
2012117 Feb 2012 (12.17%)
2011125 Jan 2011 (-2.58%)
2010429 Apr 2010 (-2.65%), 26 Jul 2010 (5.06%), 02 Aug 2010 (5.02%), 13 Sep 2010 (-2.81%)



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