Study: Buy ARVIND when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

home > technical-strategy > arvind > 29

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ARVIND when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ARVIND at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-65706.41988511342.934398.4520000-3890.04-13205.421.130.85-0.012-331.85
21245221989510347.986770.1538732.39-5035.36-16768.461.341.240.016628.9
31255941981019751.018323.7639914.16-7372.22-27353.461.131.180.012634.31
41048161989999508821.0630645.16-7762.31-30652.791.141.140.01529.37
52434741981019751.0110998.8472961.37-8942.36-42021.281.231.280.0181229.67
62987681989710148.9912754.8475536.48-9291.6-32446.811.371.320.021508.93
72412201981019751.0113714.7293562.23-11793.48-1319121.161.210.0131218.28
81481291989810049.4914461.2284978.54-12690.7-1356111.141.120.0076748.13
92374691989710148.9916074.176824.03-13086.33-1354861.231.180.0121199.34
1029144719899995016868.2999141.63-13924.38-1359871.211.210.0131471.96
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail-15.863648722319213939.8314801.21116369-7171.51-22650.12.061.370.021579.53
atrnil38.883953072156415129.7728641.7577577.75-9521.62-26536.73.011.270.021838.64
atrtrail35.132523722329214039.6613698.648882.3-7199.28-22650.11.91.250.0171087.81
atrnil26.462491422328514736.6419072.9151718.5-9333.71-26536.72.041.180.0151073.89
atrtrail24.681463332379414339.6612444.3432588.2-7156.89-22650.11.741.140.011617.44

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.37. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 39.83%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.79%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.02, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ARVIND Performance, Profit Factor:1.37

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019521 May 2019 (-3.22%), 12 Jun 2019 (-4.35%), 02 Jul 2019 (-0.46%), 12 Jul 2019 (-6.24%), 05 Aug 2019 (-6.63%)
20181109 Jan 2018 (-1.17%), 21 Feb 2018 (1.7%), 27 Mar 2018 (-3.19%), 03 Apr 2018 (4.0%), 09 May 2018 (-2.99%), 07 Jun 2018 (-0.07%), 10 Jul 2018 (-0.91%), 23 Aug 2018 (-2.75%), 12 Oct 2018 (-4.28%), 16 Nov 2018 (-3.4%), 17 Dec 2018 (-6.15%)
20171209 Feb 2017 (-1.59%), 03 Mar 2017 (2.96%), 05 Apr 2017 (-2.29%), 25 Apr 2017 (-2.43%), 05 Jun 2017 (-2.86%), 06 Jul 2017 (-0.33%), 07 Aug 2017 (-2.39%), 08 Aug 2017 (-2.57%), 01 Sep 2017 (8.05%), 10 Oct 2017 (-2.79%), 11 Oct 2017 (1.07%), 20 Dec 2017 (-2.83%)
20161103 Mar 2016 (-0.09%), 11 Apr 2016 (-1.22%), 10 May 2016 (3.18%), 22 Jun 2016 (-2.95%), 28 Jun 2016 (2.34%), 09 Aug 2016 (-3.04%), 10 Aug 2016 (0.96%), 25 Oct 2016 (-0.34%), 09 Dec 2016 (-4.07%), 20 Dec 2016 (-3.7%), 30 Dec 2016 (3.07%)
20151315 Jan 2015 (-0.69%), 03 Mar 2015 (-3.68%), 04 Mar 2015 (-3.13%), 07 Apr 2015 (-2.13%), 04 May 2015 (-4.0%), 13 May 2015 (-3.92%), 01 Jun 2015 (-4.36%), 02 Jun 2015 (-4.64%), 18 Jun 2015 (8.53%), 30 Jul 2015 (-3.88%), 09 Sep 2015 (4.38%), 10 Nov 2015 (5.02%), 18 Dec 2015 (8.2%)
20141024 Feb 2014 (3.54%), 26 Mar 2014 (6.24%), 04 Jun 2014 (-0.28%), 23 Jul 2014 (-4.27%), 07 Aug 2014 (-5.19%), 20 Aug 2014 (28.63%), 27 Oct 2014 (0.76%), 20 Nov 2014 (-3.63%), 04 Dec 2014 (-3.54%), 23 Dec 2014 (2.28%)
20131306 Mar 2013 (-4.84%), 01 Apr 2013 (-3.2%), 07 May 2013 (-4.11%), 16 May 2013 (-4.02%), 30 May 2013 (1.06%), 15 Jul 2013 (-4.23%), 23 Jul 2013 (-4.21%), 24 Jul 2013 (2.06%), 20 Aug 2013 (0.83%), 04 Oct 2013 (12.11%), 08 Nov 2013 (7.6%), 03 Dec 2013 (-3.62%), 24 Dec 2013 (-2.74%)
20121303 Jan 2012 (22.12%), 10 Feb 2012 (-4.05%), 21 Mar 2012 (-5.44%), 03 Apr 2012 (-4.14%), 28 May 2012 (-2.72%), 07 Jun 2012 (-2.76%), 27 Jun 2012 (7.9%), 16 Aug 2012 (-3.46%), 06 Sep 2012 (7.65%), 26 Oct 2012 (-1.7%), 29 Nov 2012 (0.76%), 18 Dec 2012 (-3.41%), 27 Dec 2012 (0.75%)
2011903 Mar 2011 (-5.87%), 09 Mar 2011 (-4.8%), 23 Mar 2011 (26.83%), 24 May 2011 (-4.49%), 04 Jul 2011 (1.96%), 29 Aug 2011 (22.7%), 14 Oct 2011 (-1.85%), 07 Dec 2011 (-5.16%), 08 Dec 2011 (-5.64%)
20101418 Feb 2010 (-4.27%), 03 Mar 2010 (-3.62%), 18 Mar 2010 (-1.12%), 31 Mar 2010 (1.16%), 22 Apr 2010 (-0.47%), 04 Jun 2010 (-4.49%), 11 Jun 2010 (12.98%), 16 Jul 2010 (-3.32%), 04 Aug 2010 (13.54%), 07 Sep 2010 (-1.23%), 05 Oct 2010 (-3.0%), 13 Oct 2010 (-4.35%), 14 Oct 2010 (28.05%), 16 Dec 2010 (8.06%)
2009703 Feb 2009 (0.49%), 19 Mar 2009 (58.18%), 20 May 2009 (11.36%), 21 Jul 2009 (3.51%), 25 Aug 2009 (9.51%), 13 Nov 2009 (-1.81%), 02 Dec 2009 (-4.97%)
2008406 Feb 2008 (-11.33%), 28 Mar 2008 (37.7%), 09 Jul 2008 (-8.13%), 31 Oct 2008 (6.55%)
20071121 Mar 2007 (-4.45%), 03 May 2007 (-4.0%), 16 May 2007 (-0.63%), 04 Jun 2007 (-2.73%), 25 Jun 2007 (-2.97%), 02 Jul 2007 (4.31%), 27 Aug 2007 (13.92%), 26 Sep 2007 (-0.37%), 24 Oct 2007 (-4.51%), 30 Nov 2007 (1.13%), 27 Dec 2007 (-0.5%)
2006702 Feb 2006 (0.1%), 31 Mar 2006 (6.74%), 09 May 2006 (-4.8%), 19 Jun 2006 (-1.92%), 27 Jul 2006 (-4.32%), 06 Oct 2006 (-3.62%), 28 Nov 2006 (1.5%)
2005831 Jan 2005 (2.05%), 28 Feb 2005 (0.14%), 04 Apr 2005 (0.29%), 21 Apr 2005 (1.88%), 18 Jul 2005 (-1.66%), 31 Aug 2005 (1.68%), 04 Oct 2005 (-3.48%), 09 Nov 2005 (-0.17%)
20041016 Feb 2004 (-6.67%), 08 Mar 2004 (-4.52%), 06 May 2004 (0.69%), 07 Jun 2004 (-4.38%), 28 Jun 2004 (-3.68%), 12 Jul 2004 (0.88%), 30 Aug 2004 (-0.83%), 05 Oct 2004 (-2.16%), 05 Nov 2004 (2.16%), 23 Dec 2004 (4.96%)
20031113 Jan 2003 (5.81%), 19 Feb 2003 (1.73%), 03 Apr 2003 (9.35%), 02 Jul 2003 (2.97%), 29 Jul 2003 (-4.13%), 19 Aug 2003 (-5.25%), 29 Aug 2003 (9.83%), 01 Oct 2003 (10.1%), 10 Nov 2003 (-1.69%), 29 Dec 2003 (-3.64%), 30 Dec 2003 (-0.79%)
20021021 Jan 2002 (12.15%), 08 Apr 2002 (-6.41%), 29 Apr 2002 (0.31%), 05 Jun 2002 (12.71%), 05 Jul 2002 (0.8%), 07 Aug 2002 (-6.34%), 13 Sep 2002 (-4.99%), 10 Oct 2002 (-3.16%), 31 Oct 2002 (-3.57%), 01 Nov 2002 (-2.94%)
2001825 Jan 2001 (-6.69%), 31 Jan 2001 (7.17%), 22 Mar 2001 (-8.44%), 18 Apr 2001 (-7.36%), 11 Jul 2001 (-2.41%), 06 Aug 2001 (19.76%), 01 Oct 2001 (0.65%), 19 Nov 2001 (17.23%)
2000418 Feb 2000 (-7.75%), 10 May 2000 (-7.28%), 18 Aug 2000 (1.2%), 26 Oct 2000 (22.28%)
19991022 Jan 1999 (-5.26%), 18 Mar 1999 (-6.8%), 20 Apr 1999 (-6.24%), 29 Apr 1999 (6.92%), 04 Jun 1999 (3.45%), 30 Jun 1999 (16.68%), 17 Aug 1999 (2.28%), 06 Oct 1999 (-0.97%), 27 Oct 1999 (-4.59%), 25 Nov 1999 (5.24%)
1998912 Feb 1998 (-5.35%), 25 May 1998 (-5.99%), 29 Jun 1998 (-8.34%), 29 Jul 1998 (-5.33%), 20 Aug 1998 (-4.21%), 27 Oct 1998 (-4.91%), 06 Nov 1998 (6.36%), 14 Dec 1998 (-2.76%), 22 Dec 1998 (24.81%)
1997811 Feb 1997 (0.39%), 28 Feb 1997 (7.42%), 15 Apr 1997 (-3.15%), 19 May 1997 (-2.26%), 04 Jun 1997 (-2.24%), 12 Sep 1997 (-3.37%), 04 Nov 1997 (-1.78%), 23 Dec 1997 (3.17%)
1996902 Feb 1996 (4.6%), 08 Apr 1996 (-2.2%), 05 Jun 1996 (3.04%), 23 Aug 1996 (1.26%), 20 Sep 1996 (-3.35%), 23 Oct 1996 (-3.52%), 24 Oct 1996 (-0.29%), 09 Dec 1996 (-3.09%), 10 Dec 1996 (0.49%)
1995403 Apr 1995 (0.71%), 09 May 1995 (5.77%), 14 Sep 1995 (9.23%), 08 Dec 1995 (2.26%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play