Study: Buy ARVIND when there is Bullish Centerline Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ARVIND when there is Bullish Centerline Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ARVIND at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-23302.4685362.51931.33583.74-10986.32-20761.250.180.29-0.077-2912.81
2-31477.92826255781.758737.86-7173.57-26643.60.810.27-0.082-3934.74
3-30753.12826257661.3112014.56-7679.29-31141.8710.33-0.068-3844.14
4-29283.5783537.59164.3113106.8-11355.3-33217.990.810.48-0.055-3660.45
5-40341.8844507581.7515024.12-17667.2-40138.410.430.43-0.063-5042.72
6-44465.6683537.513607.2415384.62-17057.47-52249.130.80.48-0.054-5558.21
7-7111.583537.521564.4531612.22-14360.97-44290.661.50.9-0.0084-888.94
8-14189.228445015530.5222760.8-19077.83-32179.930.810.81-0.019-1773.65
9-15202.048445017540.1823393.05-21340.69-34256.060.820.82-0.019-1900.26
10-25344.558445017865.3829504.74-24201.52-34405.390.740.74-0.028-3168.07
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil37.4414400.1793633.3327465.2737631.72-11332.61-20264.122.421.210.0171600.02
atrnil25.789468.0294544.4417488.1625087.81-12096.92-20264.121.451.160.0141052
atrtrail36.331746.2294544.4414778.5537631.72-11473.6-20264.121.291.030.0024194.02
atrtrail25.44-4.8594544.4414340.7825087.81-11473.6-20264.121.251-7.6e-06-0.54
atrtrail-16.89-11732.3894544.4411408.924153.12-11473.6-20264.120.990.8-0.02-1303.6

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.21. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 33.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.8%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.017, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ARVIND Performance, Profit Factor:1.21

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2014120 Feb 2014 (-3.76%)
2011224 Jan 2011 (-5.75%), 01 Jul 2011 (13.6%)
2009203 Jul 2009 (-8.51%), 06 Jul 2009 (-10.13%)
2005103 Oct 2005 (-3.59%)
2004104 Nov 2004 (8.78%)
2003124 Sep 2003 (18.82%)
1995119 Jul 1995 (-2.25%)



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