Study: Sell ASHOKLEY when there is Bearish Centerline Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ASHOKLEY when there is Bearish Centerline Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ASHOKLEY at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
16898.7897277.781575.055169.44-2063.3-3928.570.762.670.068766.53
218603.9197277.783538.227466.97-3081.82-50001.154.020.122067.1
310140.5595455.567004.9114653.47-6221-112001.131.410.0281126.73
4-1731.0395455.566512.6913465.35-8573.63-21785.710.760.95-0.004-192.34
51707.7795455.566621.7817623.76-7850.28-25357.140.841.050.0036189.75
6-6453.3995455.565336.4514455.45-8283.91-26071.430.640.81-0.014-717.04
7-1141.9596366.675212.1410099.01-10804.92-21071.430.480.96-0.0028-126.88
8-24408.4195455.564960.398108.11-12302.59-20714.290.40.5-0.059-2712.05
9-28453.4694544.449388.7214189.19-13201.67-28214.290.710.57-0.046-3161.5
10-37449.3795455.567901.2817690.98-19238.94-34327.270.410.51-0.05-4161.04

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is 4.02. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 77.78%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 1.03%, which is not very high, but percentage of profitable trades compensates for it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
ASHOKLEY Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:4.02

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019105 Jul 2019 (3.73%)
2011115 Jun 2011 (2.38%)
2009113 Jan 2009 (2.7%)
2007109 May 2007 (0.53%)
2005110 Nov 2005 (-2.5%)
2003126 Mar 2003 (0.15%)
2002229 Jan 2002 (-0.58%), 12 Nov 2002 (2.04%)
1996110 Sep 1996 (0.85%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1218603.9197277.783538.227466.97-3081.82-50001.154.020.122067.1
atrtrail-17-4860.4410373016504.7735486.81-7767.82-12083.732.120.91-0.0073-486.04
atrnil36.6-9017.210373019537.8320589.14-9661.53-14610.772.020.87-0.013-901.72
atrtrail36-9891.210373014827.8620589.14-7767.82-12083.731.910.82-0.018-989.12
atrnil26.1-28555.0310373013025.2213726.09-9661.53-14610.771.350.58-0.054-2855.5
atrtrail25.6-23367.3810373010335.7913726.09-7767.82-12083.731.330.57-0.054-2336.74

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 4.02. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 77.78%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 1.03%, which is not very high, but percentage of profitable trades compensates for it.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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