Study: Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
122302.9674393552.72013.788177.17-1606.7-60961.251.40.025301.39
261426.7374403454.053674.3914098.36-2516.15-9004.381.461.720.041830.09
37004574423256.764190.5418957.11-3311.17-7070.841.271.660.038946.55
466581.38743737504944.816771.82-3145.3-8848.111.571.570.034899.75
579694.27743737505760.819602.38-3606.9-17558.341.61.60.0341076.95
610947574383651.356858.6422280.45-4198.71-12745.321.631.720.0421479.39
711920374433158.116535.6825714-5220.34-12837.681.251.740.0391610.86
811773474403454.057423.5326151.86-5270.82-14435.481.411.660.0361591
976546.474393552.77760.8226699.17-6460.74-16397.851.21.340.0231034.41
1010284174403454.058267.8227067.37-6702.11-23342.051.231.450.0281389.75
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil27.615867272324044.4411840.0822292.8-5505.26-11888.962.151.720.0492203.78
atrnil310.2812886467224532.8417230.0733439.2-5559.94-11888.963.11.520.0351923.35
atrtrail25.0992719.1391365539.568474.5721649.95-3861.19-10860.762.191.440.0291018.89
50nil22.8587265.17116486841.3860227986.57-2967.51-3952.932.031.430.034752.29
50nil33.7653021.51104307428.859024.7411929.15-2942.17-3935.23.071.240.019509.82
50trail22.4233337.5123447935.775419.167986.57-2596.27-3935.22.091.160.014271.04
atrtrail35.6931253.9590325835.567805.5724979.62-3767.66-10860.762.071.140.0099347.27
50trail32.9222095.42117338428.217028.1911929.15-2498.03-3935.22.811.110.0082188.85
50trail-14.111505.68116308625.867545.729858.4-2498.43-3935.23.021.050.003599.19
atrtrail-16.21-5480.6489315834.836892.727721.03-3778.52-10860.761.820.97-0.0019-61.58

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.72. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.1%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.049, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, Profit Factor:1.72

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019206 Jun 2019 (-2.49%), 16 Jul 2019 (4.07%)
2018112 Nov 2018 (6.41%)
2017618 Jul 2017 (-2.23%), 29 Aug 2017 (3.62%), 18 Oct 2017 (3.77%), 26 Oct 2017 (-2.15%), 09 Nov 2017 (-1.99%), 29 Dec 2017 (-1.81%)
2016629 Jan 2016 (-2.56%), 23 Feb 2016 (-2.61%), 01 Mar 2016 (-2.63%), 31 Mar 2016 (-2.31%), 13 Apr 2016 (-2.04%), 26 Apr 2016 (3.95%)
2015716 Mar 2015 (-2.46%), 19 Mar 2015 (-2.6%), 06 Apr 2015 (-2.53%), 01 Jul 2015 (5.0%), 05 Oct 2015 (-3.01%), 30 Nov 2015 (4.32%), 09 Dec 2015 (4.71%)
2014407 Feb 2014 (-2.27%), 07 Mar 2014 (3.68%), 09 Jun 2014 (5.47%), 17 Oct 2014 (5.79%)
2013406 Mar 2013 (4.25%), 26 Apr 2013 (4.47%), 14 May 2013 (-2.39%), 01 Jul 2013 (-2.52%)
2012309 Aug 2012 (-2.19%), 28 Aug 2012 (-1.97%), 06 Sep 2012 (4.22%)
2011329 Jul 2011 (-2.1%), 10 Oct 2011 (-2.45%), 31 Oct 2011 (-3.23%)
2010302 Jun 2010 (6.13%), 08 Nov 2010 (-2.87%), 01 Dec 2010 (6.62%)
2008105 Mar 2008 (-5.94%)
2007203 Apr 2007 (8.33%), 05 Dec 2007 (6.88%)
2006205 May 2006 (5.68%), 30 Jun 2006 (-5.43%)
2005313 May 2005 (4.76%), 30 May 2005 (5.07%), 01 Nov 2005 (11.15%)
2004330 Aug 2004 (-1.58%), 01 Sep 2004 (-1.75%), 01 Oct 2004 (-2.25%)
2003307 Jan 2003 (3.86%), 13 Jan 2003 (-2.55%), 28 Jan 2003 (-2.67%)
2002803 Jan 2002 (-3.21%), 18 Jan 2002 (-3.02%), 01 Feb 2002 (-2.99%), 14 Jun 2002 (7.06%), 13 Aug 2002 (9.01%), 14 Aug 2002 (10.82%), 11 Sep 2002 (8.19%), 13 Dec 2002 (-2.72%)
2001223 Oct 2001 (6.13%), 31 Dec 2001 (-3.2%)
2000222 Mar 2000 (-5.64%), 15 Jun 2000 (7.55%)
1999211 Nov 1999 (-3.96%), 13 Dec 1999 (-2.78%)
1998126 Oct 1998 (5.99%)
1997121 Oct 1997 (5.36%)
1996202 Jul 1996 (-2.75%), 16 Sep 1996 (-2.23%)
1995115 Dec 1995 (7.11%)



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