Study: Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
12075.21135838.463471.548177.17-1910.31-4536.861.821.140.01159.63
214814.51137653.853780.778139.31-1941.81-4773.161.952.270.0651139.58
3-5286.1136746.152352.316177.67-2771.42-5961.250.850.73-0.024-406.62
49769.28139469.232586.836646.86-3378.04-6450.850.771.720.042751.48
59959.67137653.853141.168314.51-2004.74-3686.21.571.830.046766.13
617970.84137653.854797.216191.79-2601.6-5181.971.842.150.0521382.37
734680.3139469.235636.0618006.27-4011.05-6739.551.413.160.0872667.72
831771.05139469.234999.4222465.93-3305.92-4193.51.513.40.0752443.93
926535.94138561.546039.0520542.16-4355.3-7820.731.392.220.0582041.23
1031392.31138561.546116.1719886.32-3507.41-5062.151.742.790.0742414.79
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 3 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
ASIANPAINT Performance, X=8, Profit Factor:3.4

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019116 Jul 2019 (11.23%)
2018112 Nov 2018 (2.78%)
2011131 Oct 2011 (-1.94%)
2005230 May 2005 (0.18%), 13 Jun 2005 (2.94%)
2003207 Jan 2003 (1.06%), 28 Jan 2003 (-1.35%)
2002313 Aug 2002 (0.72%), 20 Sep 2002 (0.79%), 13 Dec 2002 (-2.1%)
2001123 Oct 2001 (2.39%)
2000131 Mar 2000 (0.41%)
1998126 Oct 1998 (-1.23%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil28.6774908.4215966012978.0821649.95-6982.39-9938.711.862.790.0974993.89
50nil33.2724121.182271531.829898.8211896.52-3011.37-3856.833.291.530.0361096.42
atrtrail24.8326288.011861233.331270721649.95-4162.83-9938.713.051.530.0321460.45
atrnil315.5419716.74135838.4615323.1819227.24-7112.39-9938.712.151.350.0281516.67
50nil22.5713825.562391439.136290.87931.01-3056.55-3856.832.061.320.026601.11
50trail22.33-2330.612471729.176047.17931.01-2627.08-3856.832.30.95-0.0048-97.11
50trail32.96-3335.132351821.748451.7811896.52-2533-3856.833.340.93-0.0059-145.01
atrtrail36-31564.731741323.535312.4211585.37-4062.65-9938.711.310.4-0.074-1856.75
50trail-13.73-33836.062231913.644719.587808.65-2526.04-3856.831.870.3-0.11-1538
atrtrail-16.38-43780.181631318.753221.445834.37-4111.12-9938.710.780.18-0.14-2736.26

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.79. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 60%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.5%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.097, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, Profit Factor:2.79

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019116 Jul 2019 (4.07%)
2018112 Nov 2018 (6.41%)
2011131 Oct 2011 (-3.23%)
2005130 May 2005 (5.07%)
2003307 Jan 2003 (3.86%), 13 Jan 2003 (-2.55%), 28 Jan 2003 (-2.67%)
2002413 Aug 2002 (9.01%), 14 Aug 2002 (10.82%), 20 Sep 2002 (7.03%), 13 Dec 2002 (-2.72%)
2001123 Oct 2001 (6.13%)
2000231 Mar 2000 (-4.97%), 13 Apr 2000 (-4.81%)
1998126 Oct 1998 (5.99%)



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