Study: Sell ASIANPAINT when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ASIANPAINT when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-74473.04107466142.992560.949768.86-3152.07-16527.320.810.61-0.036-696.01
2-87804.3107495845.793037.7412877.46-4080.23-23060.470.740.63-0.034-820.6
3-88320.35107466142.99405512156.41-4505.74-21076.120.90.68-0.029-825.42
4-108533107495845.794824.1120762.43-5946.8-20481.030.810.69-0.03-1014.33
5-108740107456242.065827.3324918.15-5983.39-18957.020.970.71-0.027-1016.26
6-133030107476043.935841.1220762.43-6792.71-23526.140.860.67-0.031-1243.27
7-160985107476043.936227.9424909.24-7561.64-24484.410.820.65-0.033-1504.53
8-186210107436440.197368.828595.36-7860.44-31902.310.940.63-0.034-1740.28
9-261395107367133.648025.1537028.76-7750.71-349171.040.52-0.046-2442.94
10-351779107327529.918413.7936107.23-8280.28-37589.881.020.43-0.059-3287.66
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail25.13-189528121368529.757278.4220785.86-5312.37-16223.631.370.58-0.046-1566.35
atrtrail-15.84-208745121358628.936994.8933334.21-5274.03-16223.631.330.54-0.047-1725.17
atrnil26.71-288151119279222.6912125.9144519.59-6690.76-17324.611.810.53-0.056-2421.43
atrtrail35.56-212455121358628.936888.8831178.79-5274.03-16223.631.310.53-0.05-1755.83
atrnil311.37-327305107179015.8916145.7431178.79-6686.47-22259.792.410.46-0.069-3058.92

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.58. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, Profit Factor:0.58

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019314 Feb 2019 (-0.73%), 09 Apr 2019 (0.29%), 18 Jun 2019 (0.59%)
2018723 Jan 2018 (3.69%), 20 Feb 2018 (0.34%), 21 Mar 2018 (-1.98%), 03 Oct 2018 (0.32%), 23 Oct 2018 (-3.96%), 24 Oct 2018 (-3.89%), 06 Dec 2018 (-0.98%)
2017614 Jul 2017 (-2.31%), 11 Aug 2017 (-0.48%), 25 Sep 2017 (3.69%), 03 Nov 2017 (0.72%), 14 Nov 2017 (-2.11%), 20 Nov 2017 (4.15%)
2016711 Feb 2016 (-0.8%), 29 Feb 2016 (-2.66%), 21 Mar 2016 (-0.65%), 07 Apr 2016 (-1.44%), 02 May 2016 (-1.96%), 18 Oct 2016 (1.82%), 20 Dec 2016 (-3.02%)
2015702 Feb 2015 (-2.06%), 10 Mar 2015 (-2.52%), 23 Mar 2015 (5.31%), 20 Apr 2015 (0.22%), 08 Jun 2015 (5.54%), 23 Sep 2015 (-3.31%), 26 Oct 2015 (-0.12%)
2014722 Jan 2014 (-2.25%), 14 Feb 2014 (0.24%), 27 May 2014 (0.9%), 11 Jul 2014 (-2.71%), 23 Sep 2014 (-0.57%), 16 Oct 2014 (-2.96%), 12 Nov 2014 (-2.32%)
2013311 May 2013 (-2.09%), 03 Jun 2013 (4.59%), 04 Sep 2013 (-4.82%)
2012424 Aug 2012 (-1.56%), 31 Aug 2012 (-2.27%), 05 Oct 2012 (-2.74%), 16 Nov 2012 (0.4%)
2011624 Feb 2011 (-2.75%), 12 Jul 2011 (-2.78%), 08 Sep 2011 (4.95%), 05 Oct 2011 (-2.45%), 21 Oct 2011 (-3.37%), 14 Nov 2011 (6.32%)
2010322 Jan 2010 (-3.29%), 20 May 2010 (-0.68%), 16 Nov 2010 (5.75%)
2009327 Jan 2009 (-4.71%), 28 Jan 2009 (-1.64%), 03 Mar 2009 (0.5%)
2008415 Jan 2008 (0.52%), 07 Mar 2008 (-5.82%), 13 Mar 2008 (-3.09%), 09 May 2008 (-1.71%)
2007309 Jan 2007 (-2.67%), 30 Jul 2007 (-3.37%), 12 Nov 2007 (-4.52%)
2006716 May 2006 (7.81%), 08 Jun 2006 (-7.17%), 09 Jun 2006 (-4.16%), 17 Jul 2006 (-4.31%), 18 Jul 2006 (-3.55%), 20 Nov 2006 (-3.5%), 07 Dec 2006 (-3.57%)
2005302 Jun 2005 (-2.44%), 20 Jun 2005 (-2.0%), 22 Sep 2005 (-2.85%)
2004926 Mar 2004 (-0.51%), 11 May 2004 (5.46%), 11 Jun 2004 (-3.34%), 14 Jul 2004 (-2.29%), 15 Sep 2004 (-1.48%), 16 Sep 2004 (-1.44%), 07 Oct 2004 (4.72%), 05 Nov 2004 (-2.73%), 08 Nov 2004 (-2.17%)
2003429 Jan 2003 (2.45%), 31 Mar 2003 (-1.86%), 22 Aug 2003 (-8.11%), 23 Oct 2003 (-3.43%)
2002531 Jan 2002 (-3.0%), 17 Jul 2002 (-2.76%), 19 Aug 2002 (-5.33%), 20 Nov 2002 (-2.65%), 23 Dec 2002 (-1.84%)
20011019 Feb 2001 (-2.28%), 14 May 2001 (-3.27%), 15 May 2001 (-0.48%), 08 Jun 2001 (-3.01%), 02 Jul 2001 (-3.22%), 05 Jul 2001 (-2.61%), 17 Sep 2001 (-3.49%), 18 Sep 2001 (-1.82%), 08 Oct 2001 (-3.01%), 19 Dec 2001 (5.78%)
2000506 Apr 2000 (-4.76%), 19 Apr 2000 (10.39%), 12 Jun 2000 (-3.82%), 02 Aug 2000 (5.24%), 10 Nov 2000 (-2.16%)
1999419 Jan 1999 (6.07%), 29 Oct 1999 (-0.88%), 26 Nov 1999 (0.57%), 17 Dec 1999 (5.71%)
1998312 Jan 1998 (-2.05%), 17 Mar 1998 (-0.41%), 27 Apr 1998 (-4.76%)
1997417 Jan 1997 (5.86%), 22 Sep 1997 (-1.24%), 28 Oct 1997 (-3.58%), 29 Oct 1997 (7.61%)
1996311 Mar 1996 (-0.31%), 23 Sep 1996 (4.1%), 19 Nov 1996 (4.63%)
1995120 Oct 1995 (3.76%)



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