Study: Sell ASIANPAINT when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

home > technical-strategy > asianpaint > 27

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ASIANPAINT when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-9203.1799534653.542479.912347.47-3057.35-9788.40.810.93-0.0053-92.96
2-63420.5699465346.462875.89371.13-3692.59-25197.870.780.68-0.028-640.61
3-89928.3999445544.443680.2211713.35-4579.24-32854.140.80.64-0.029-908.37
4-12021899415841.414680.8718941.78-5381.61-22451.950.870.61-0.036-1214.32
5-14042399405940.44669.924918.15-5546.08-18957.020.840.57-0.041-1418.41
6-16831999435643.434563.8417633.68-6510.08-23526.140.70.54-0.047-1700.2
7-17752299386138.385708.4624049.38-6466.28-31723.470.880.55-0.043-1793.15
8-16291299435643.435846.9326915.02-7398.75-227750.790.61-0.039-1645.57
9-21474299435643.435529.622572.47-8080.61-22413.490.680.53-0.05-2169.11
10-28827199405940.45157.3122440.21-8382.43-37589.880.620.42-0.062-2911.83

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 0.93. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 53.54%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.046%, we advise you not to use this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-11-9203.1799534653.542479.912347.47-3057.35-9788.40.810.93-0.0053-92.96
atrnil26.77-140907118328627.1212290.5143800.61-6211.67-17324.611.980.74-0.027-1194.13
atrtrail24.73-115399119398032.777161.3720785.86-4933.66-16223.631.450.71-0.028-969.74
atrtrail35.22-147822117368130.776812.1531178.79-4852.59-16223.631.40.62-0.035-1263.44
atrnil39.26-254722115209517.3917109.5231178.79-6283.29-21900.312.720.57-0.047-2214.98
atrtrail-15.49-211103115348129.575265.8526316.55-4816.57-16223.631.090.46-0.062-1835.68

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.93. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 53.54%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.046%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:0.935

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019309 Apr 2019 (2.42%), 22 Aug 2019 (-0.65%), 16 Oct 2019 (-2.64%)
2018623 Jan 2018 (1.61%), 25 May 2018 (-2.28%), 02 Aug 2018 (0.46%), 03 Oct 2018 (2.16%), 23 Oct 2018 (-4.26%), 06 Dec 2018 (-1.82%)
2017413 Feb 2017 (0.4%), 24 Mar 2017 (2.01%), 18 May 2017 (2.45%), 22 Sep 2017 (1.34%)
2016409 Jun 2016 (0.68%), 16 Aug 2016 (1.43%), 14 Sep 2016 (-0.86%), 20 Dec 2016 (0.02%)
2015202 Feb 2015 (-0.82%), 12 Aug 2015 (-0.34%)
2014515 Apr 2014 (-0.07%), 10 Jul 2014 (3.09%), 08 Aug 2014 (0.67%), 22 Sep 2014 (2.75%), 15 Dec 2014 (1.09%)
2013412 Feb 2013 (0.85%), 02 Apr 2013 (0.11%), 04 Sep 2013 (-0.57%), 12 Nov 2013 (1.43%)
2012722 Feb 2012 (0.48%), 07 Mar 2012 (-2.58%), 18 May 2012 (-1.44%), 04 Jun 2012 (-0.94%), 04 Oct 2012 (1.62%), 16 Nov 2012 (1.88%), 14 Dec 2012 (0.73%)
2011604 Jan 2011 (-1.56%), 11 May 2011 (-2.93%), 10 Jun 2011 (1.15%), 11 Jul 2011 (1.93%), 21 Oct 2011 (-1.15%), 14 Nov 2011 (2.01%)
2010420 May 2010 (2.27%), 29 Jun 2010 (2.49%), 16 Aug 2010 (0.38%), 30 Aug 2010 (-1.83%)
2009504 Mar 2009 (1.03%), 12 Jun 2009 (-0.99%), 07 Aug 2009 (0.61%), 10 Nov 2009 (-0.52%), 30 Dec 2009 (-1.8%)
2008215 Jan 2008 (1.22%), 20 Aug 2008 (0.17%)
2007409 Jan 2007 (-0.08%), 02 Feb 2007 (1.17%), 11 Jun 2007 (-3.06%), 09 Nov 2007 (6.17%)
2006617 Feb 2006 (0.43%), 22 Aug 2006 (0.54%), 22 Sep 2006 (0.49%), 09 Oct 2006 (-0.45%), 20 Nov 2006 (-0.76%), 07 Dec 2006 (-0.41%)
2005502 Jun 2005 (-1.23%), 17 Jun 2005 (1.07%), 15 Jul 2005 (-3.59%), 09 Aug 2005 (-0.33%), 02 Sep 2005 (-0.37%)
2004619 Jan 2004 (0.34%), 26 Mar 2004 (1.12%), 11 May 2004 (0.61%), 11 Jun 2004 (-1.91%), 05 Nov 2004 (-0.12%), 24 Dec 2004 (0.56%)
2003428 Jan 2003 (0.93%), 31 Mar 2003 (0.38%), 17 Jul 2003 (-1.41%), 22 Aug 2003 (-0.48%)
2002319 Aug 2002 (-4.62%), 18 Sep 2002 (-0.25%), 23 Dec 2002 (0.8%)
2001419 Feb 2001 (0.02%), 18 Sep 2001 (1.86%), 05 Oct 2001 (0.89%), 19 Dec 2001 (-0.79%)
2000407 Feb 2000 (-1.37%), 06 Apr 2000 (-1.43%), 03 Aug 2000 (-3.3%), 13 Nov 2000 (-2.31%)
1999201 Jul 1999 (-4.89%), 08 Sep 1999 (-1.52%)
1998309 Jan 1998 (1.79%), 06 Aug 1998 (-0.26%), 27 Aug 1998 (1.26%)
1997214 Mar 1997 (1.16%), 15 Jul 1997 (0.76%)
1996107 May 1996 (-3.59%)
1995320 Apr 1995 (-0.83%), 26 Jun 1995 (0.41%), 16 Aug 1995 (-0.92%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play