Study: Sell ASIANPAINT when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ASIANPAINT when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-45751.6242162638.12667.064844.79-3400.94-9247.310.780.48-0.058-1089.32
2-62132.3842182442.862709.026750.55-4620.61-10821.730.590.44-0.067-1479.34
3-79833.0842162638.13419.5611713.35-5174.85-21076.120.660.41-0.067-1900.79
4-78527.4242142833.335903.1818941.78-5756.14-20481.031.030.51-0.053-1869.7
5-11114042123028.575915.8824918.15-6071.02-18957.020.970.39-0.071-2646.19
6-14134342142833.334533.4817633.68-7314.71-23526.140.620.31-0.09-3365.31
7-17586542113126.195006.6415178.25-7449.62-24484.410.670.24-0.11-4187.27
8-17899842123028.575044.2714394.76-7984.3-22026.250.630.25-0.11-4261.85
9-2264394283419.055557.9510197.45-7967.74-21804.040.70.16-0.14-5391.42
10-2666084273516.674617.110221.57-8540.8-37589.880.540.11-0.14-6347.81
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 3 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil27.69-116438459362015230.3843800.61-7042-17324.612.160.54-0.05-2587.52
atrtrail26.18-10921345123326.676902.720785.86-5819.57-16223.631.190.43-0.07-2426.96
atrtrail36.49-11169945113424.447487.4931178.79-5707.67-16223.631.310.42-0.065-2482.19
atrnil310.07-1687894463813.6417760.0731178.79-7246.05-21900.312.450.39-0.082-3836.12
atrtrail-16.58-13261545113424.445585.9719589.14-5707.67-16223.630.980.32-0.096-2947.01

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.54. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, Profit Factor:0.541

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019109 Apr 2019 (-2.05%)
2018523 Jan 2018 (3.69%), 03 Oct 2018 (5.98%), 23 Oct 2018 (-3.96%), 24 Oct 2018 (-3.89%), 06 Dec 2018 (-2.48%)
2017125 Sep 2017 (3.69%)
2016120 Dec 2016 (-3.14%)
2015102 Feb 2015 (-3.49%)
2014211 Jul 2014 (-2.71%), 23 Sep 2014 (-2.72%)
2013104 Sep 2013 (-4.82%)
2012205 Oct 2012 (-2.74%), 16 Nov 2012 (-2.09%)
2011312 Jul 2011 (-2.78%), 21 Oct 2011 (-3.37%), 14 Nov 2011 (6.32%)
2010120 May 2010 (-2.94%)
2009104 Mar 2009 (-3.86%)
2008115 Jan 2008 (-5.51%)
2007209 Jan 2007 (-2.68%), 12 Nov 2007 (-5.38%)
2006220 Nov 2006 (-3.5%), 07 Dec 2006 (-3.57%)
2005202 Jun 2005 (-2.44%), 20 Jun 2005 (-2.0%)
2004526 Mar 2004 (-2.85%), 11 May 2004 (5.46%), 11 Jun 2004 (-3.34%), 05 Nov 2004 (-2.73%), 08 Nov 2004 (-2.75%)
2003329 Jan 2003 (5.33%), 31 Mar 2003 (-2.48%), 22 Aug 2003 (-8.66%)
2002219 Aug 2002 (-5.33%), 23 Dec 2002 (-2.66%)
2001419 Feb 2001 (-3.72%), 18 Sep 2001 (-3.75%), 08 Oct 2001 (-3.95%), 19 Dec 2001 (5.78%)
2000406 Apr 2000 (-4.76%), 19 Apr 2000 (10.39%), 03 Aug 2000 (21.9%), 13 Nov 2000 (-5.59%)
1998112 Jan 1998 (-2.05%)



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