Study: Buy ASIANPAINT when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ASIANPAINT when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
159495.49194959948.972862.416845.95-2145.78-12022.731.331.280.017306.68
21875241941068854.644334.3219867.55-3089.93-16777.111.41.690.038966.62
32278141941068854.645010.423977.03-3446.47-15048.921.451.750.041174.3
42997661941088655.675796.9138341.97-3794.19-26294.011.531.920.0441545.19
54312941941088655.677003.2834277.1-3779.78-17891.711.852.330.062223.16
65103251941088655.677792.9437795.28-3852.48-14211.712.022.540.0632630.54
75566991941058954.128652.2849978.31-3952.71-15570.382.192.580.0642869.58
86259881941098556.199132.4238467.1-4346.42-17698.222.12.690.0713226.74
95899841941197561.348599.7234475.78-5778.44-56364.521.492.360.0613041.15
107066321941187660.829761.2340341.77-5857.81-55680.431.672.590.0673642.44
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
ASIANPAINT Performance, X=8, Profit Factor:2.69

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019501 Feb 2019 (-2.27%), 12 Mar 2019 (2.06%), 22 May 2019 (6.64%), 15 Jul 2019 (10.55%), 20 Sep 2019 (4.66%)
2018916 Feb 2018 (-2.28%), 08 Mar 2018 (-1.87%), 27 Mar 2018 (2.27%), 30 Apr 2018 (7.05%), 03 Jul 2018 (5.88%), 28 Sep 2018 (-5.74%), 15 Oct 2018 (-4.8%), 30 Oct 2018 (6.9%), 18 Dec 2018 (1.28%)
2017823 Feb 2017 (1.34%), 26 Apr 2017 (5.49%), 01 Jun 2017 (-0.93%), 12 Jul 2017 (1.94%), 29 Aug 2017 (4.54%), 17 Oct 2017 (-1.22%), 10 Nov 2017 (-0.36%), 18 Dec 2017 (1.88%)
2016905 Jan 2016 (-2.38%), 01 Feb 2016 (-3.57%), 24 Feb 2016 (-0.69%), 04 Apr 2016 (-0.11%), 06 May 2016 (8.35%), 11 Jul 2016 (1.55%), 02 Sep 2016 (-1.06%), 06 Oct 2016 (-3.62%), 25 Nov 2016 (-1.4%)
2015808 Jan 2015 (2.3%), 03 Mar 2015 (-0.77%), 18 Mar 2015 (-0.83%), 06 Apr 2015 (-0.93%), 14 May 2015 (-4.14%), 22 Jun 2015 (2.03%), 16 Sep 2015 (2.14%), 19 Nov 2015 (3.02%)
2014901 Jan 2014 (-1.14%), 05 Feb 2014 (-2.31%), 26 Feb 2014 (0.74%), 13 May 2014 (0.04%), 10 Jun 2014 (6.0%), 24 Jul 2014 (3.31%), 04 Sep 2014 (2.29%), 10 Oct 2014 (-1.63%), 03 Nov 2014 (5.87%)
2013725 Jan 2013 (4.96%), 08 Mar 2013 (6.99%), 02 May 2013 (-0.59%), 15 May 2013 (0.03%), 28 Jun 2013 (3.16%), 02 Sep 2013 (4.72%), 11 Oct 2013 (7.51%)
2012903 Jan 2012 (3.17%), 28 Feb 2012 (0.41%), 30 Mar 2012 (1.82%), 31 May 2012 (-3.43%), 02 Aug 2012 (3.58%), 29 Aug 2012 (1.51%), 06 Nov 2012 (-5.34%), 27 Nov 2012 (4.65%), 20 Dec 2012 (-1.63%)
2011614 Feb 2011 (-7.26%), 03 Mar 2011 (-0.27%), 13 May 2011 (8.6%), 30 Jun 2011 (-2.84%), 10 Aug 2011 (3.79%), 29 Sep 2011 (0.66%)
20101104 Jan 2010 (5.2%), 01 Feb 2010 (3.24%), 04 Mar 2010 (-3.21%), 18 Mar 2010 (2.22%), 14 May 2010 (-2.58%), 04 Jun 2010 (7.96%), 16 Jul 2010 (4.53%), 20 Aug 2010 (-1.03%), 06 Sep 2010 (-0.09%), 29 Oct 2010 (2.22%), 01 Dec 2010 (0.63%)
2009711 Feb 2009 (-1.66%), 18 Mar 2009 (5.34%), 13 May 2009 (10.18%), 03 Jul 2009 (-1.96%), 21 Jul 2009 (12.87%), 30 Sep 2009 (12.82%), 16 Dec 2009 (-0.19%)
2008630 Jan 2008 (-2.55%), 04 Mar 2008 (-5.16%), 24 Mar 2008 (1.3%), 29 May 2008 (-0.22%), 18 Jul 2008 (13.36%), 31 Oct 2008 (-0.49%)
20071002 Jan 2007 (-3.63%), 16 Jan 2007 (1.48%), 19 Mar 2007 (9.63%), 18 May 2007 (1.07%), 13 Jun 2007 (-3.01%), 09 Jul 2007 (3.38%), 03 Aug 2007 (4.61%), 25 Sep 2007 (-3.73%), 24 Oct 2007 (3.82%), 19 Dec 2007 (13.08%)
2006928 Apr 2006 (4.28%), 02 Jun 2006 (-8.85%), 16 Jun 2006 (2.9%), 19 Jul 2006 (5.53%), 08 Sep 2006 (1.87%), 05 Oct 2006 (-3.32%), 01 Nov 2006 (0.86%), 01 Dec 2006 (-0.18%), 15 Dec 2006 (0.55%)
2005924 Jan 2005 (4.8%), 15 Mar 2005 (4.82%), 13 May 2005 (1.1%), 07 Jun 2005 (-1.26%), 21 Jun 2005 (2.24%), 19 Jul 2005 (3.67%), 30 Aug 2005 (2.01%), 05 Oct 2005 (-3.47%), 09 Nov 2005 (-0.62%)
2004901 Jan 2004 (1.58%), 08 Mar 2004 (0.35%), 26 May 2004 (-1.57%), 15 Jun 2004 (5.46%), 09 Jul 2004 (-1.6%), 29 Jul 2004 (0.06%), 03 Sep 2004 (-1.45%), 29 Sep 2004 (-4.67%), 01 Nov 2004 (-2.93%)
2003706 Jan 2003 (2.19%), 10 Mar 2003 (3.68%), 29 Apr 2003 (3.31%), 03 Jul 2003 (0.94%), 08 Aug 2003 (6.49%), 11 Sep 2003 (-1.82%), 04 Nov 2003 (6.89%)
2002814 Jan 2002 (-0.31%), 04 Feb 2002 (9.56%), 14 Mar 2002 (-0.09%), 01 Apr 2002 (-2.98%), 22 Apr 2002 (-3.98%), 05 Jun 2002 (2.66%), 21 Aug 2002 (1.54%), 15 Nov 2002 (0.61%)
2001907 Feb 2001 (-2.21%), 03 Apr 2001 (7.53%), 04 Jun 2001 (-0.79%), 04 Jul 2001 (-0.1%), 31 Aug 2001 (1.38%), 27 Sep 2001 (-1.04%), 24 Oct 2001 (-1.58%), 26 Nov 2001 (-1.94%), 11 Dec 2001 (-3.15%)
2000706 Jan 2000 (9.68%), 09 Mar 2000 (-1.74%), 11 Apr 2000 (-6.05%), 24 May 2000 (-2.27%), 12 Jul 2000 (5.42%), 24 Aug 2000 (-1.07%), 22 Nov 2000 (7.72%)
1999906 Jan 1999 (-1.86%), 05 May 1999 (12.47%), 02 Jun 1999 (11.46%), 05 Jul 1999 (3.59%), 18 Aug 1999 (19.23%), 22 Oct 1999 (-2.57%), 09 Nov 1999 (-1.37%), 25 Nov 1999 (-0.94%), 10 Dec 1999 (-2.85%)
1998519 Feb 1998 (3.68%), 25 Mar 1998 (-2.82%), 29 Jun 1998 (13.93%), 14 Aug 1998 (-0.42%), 26 Oct 1998 (-1.23%)
1997612 Feb 1997 (-0.52%), 22 Apr 1997 (1.85%), 18 Jun 1997 (17.22%), 08 Sep 1997 (-1.66%), 16 Oct 1997 (-5.71%), 27 Nov 1997 (0.33%)
1996716 Jan 1996 (0.88%), 12 Feb 1996 (-0.33%), 02 Apr 1996 (2.54%), 07 Jun 1996 (8.48%), 05 Aug 1996 (0.08%), 16 Oct 1996 (1.23%), 11 Dec 1996 (1.25%)
1995516 May 1995 (-0.69%), 21 Jun 1995 (-2.62%), 18 Jul 1995 (3.71%), 10 Oct 1995 (-3.21%), 29 Nov 1995 (9.48%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil39.74544362077413335.7517586.8340552.39-6368.34-14118.972.761.540.0372195.34
atrnil27.323922552219812344.3411892.9527034.92-6286.62-14118.971.891.510.0381774.91
atrtrail-16.152940242279213540.539748.8551561.18-4465.7-14118.972.181.490.0271295.26
atrtrail35.312832672289313540.799575.2828529.91-4498.03-14118.972.131.470.0291242.4
atrtrail24.782216492329713541.818622.2923717.53-4553.43-14118.971.891.360.025955.38

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.54. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 35.75%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.1%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.037, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, Profit Factor:1.54

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019601 Feb 2019 (-2.2%), 12 Mar 2019 (5.63%), 22 May 2019 (-2.35%), 15 Jul 2019 (6.16%), 20 Sep 2019 (7.21%), 23 Sep 2019 (-2.66%)
2018916 Feb 2018 (-2.02%), 08 Mar 2018 (-1.83%), 27 Mar 2018 (5.62%), 30 Apr 2018 (6.09%), 03 Jul 2018 (5.82%), 28 Sep 2018 (-2.91%), 12 Oct 2018 (-3.35%), 30 Oct 2018 (10.65%), 18 Dec 2018 (7.5%)
2017923 Feb 2017 (6.06%), 26 Apr 2017 (5.84%), 01 Jun 2017 (-2.32%), 12 Jul 2017 (7.09%), 17 Oct 2017 (-1.82%), 18 Oct 2017 (-1.88%), 10 Nov 2017 (-2.09%), 16 Nov 2017 (-2.08%), 18 Dec 2017 (6.23%)
20161005 Jan 2016 (-1.77%), 06 Jan 2016 (-1.9%), 01 Feb 2016 (-2.49%), 24 Feb 2016 (-2.5%), 25 Feb 2016 (7.78%), 11 Jul 2016 (-1.82%), 02 Sep 2016 (-2.09%), 06 Oct 2016 (-2.08%), 13 Oct 2016 (-2.1%), 25 Nov 2016 (-3.81%)
20151008 Jan 2015 (8.54%), 03 Mar 2015 (-2.79%), 17 Mar 2015 (-2.45%), 18 Mar 2015 (-2.55%), 06 Apr 2015 (-2.53%), 14 May 2015 (-3.16%), 22 Jun 2015 (8.14%), 16 Sep 2015 (-3.25%), 30 Sep 2015 (-3.26%), 19 Nov 2015 (6.75%)
20141001 Jan 2014 (-2.03%), 02 Jan 2014 (-2.27%), 05 Feb 2014 (-2.39%), 26 Feb 2014 (5.89%), 13 May 2014 (-2.57%), 10 Jun 2014 (8.18%), 24 Jul 2014 (-2.6%), 04 Sep 2014 (6.45%), 10 Oct 2014 (-2.72%), 23 Oct 2014 (8.32%)
2013825 Jan 2013 (5.63%), 08 Mar 2013 (6.53%), 02 May 2013 (-2.14%), 15 May 2013 (-2.33%), 28 Jun 2013 (7.56%), 02 Sep 2013 (-4.57%), 05 Sep 2013 (13.89%), 11 Oct 2013 (10.22%)
2012903 Jan 2012 (9.6%), 28 Feb 2012 (-2.32%), 30 Mar 2012 (8.56%), 31 May 2012 (-2.66%), 01 Jun 2012 (-3.12%), 02 Aug 2012 (7.47%), 06 Nov 2012 (-1.9%), 27 Nov 2012 (6.08%), 20 Dec 2012 (-1.82%)
2011714 Feb 2011 (-3.18%), 03 Mar 2011 (-3.22%), 13 May 2011 (7.92%), 30 Jun 2011 (-2.69%), 10 Aug 2011 (-2.55%), 29 Sep 2011 (-2.21%), 10 Oct 2011 (-2.45%)
20101204 Jan 2010 (-2.89%), 13 Jan 2010 (-3.18%), 01 Feb 2010 (-3.33%), 04 Mar 2010 (-3.86%), 18 Mar 2010 (10.2%), 14 May 2010 (-2.75%), 04 Jun 2010 (8.76%), 16 Jul 2010 (7.77%), 20 Aug 2010 (-2.82%), 06 Sep 2010 (-2.58%), 29 Oct 2010 (-2.9%), 01 Dec 2010 (9.93%)
2009711 Feb 2009 (-5.3%), 18 Mar 2009 (-3.74%), 13 May 2009 (9.99%), 03 Jul 2009 (-3.59%), 21 Jul 2009 (11.03%), 30 Sep 2009 (8.62%), 16 Dec 2009 (-2.3%)
2008530 Jan 2008 (-6.98%), 04 Mar 2008 (-5.95%), 24 Mar 2008 (-5.44%), 18 Jul 2008 (11.43%), 31 Oct 2008 (-6.29%)
20071015 Jan 2007 (-3.76%), 19 Mar 2007 (15.54%), 18 May 2007 (9.56%), 13 Jun 2007 (-3.78%), 09 Jul 2007 (-2.9%), 03 Aug 2007 (-3.13%), 06 Aug 2007 (9.59%), 25 Sep 2007 (-2.6%), 24 Oct 2007 (-4.1%), 19 Dec 2007 (7.76%)
2006728 Apr 2006 (-3.4%), 02 Jun 2006 (-6.21%), 12 Jun 2006 (-7.06%), 16 Jun 2006 (-6.63%), 19 Jun 2006 (20.28%), 05 Oct 2006 (-2.63%), 01 Nov 2006 (12.0%)
20051024 Jan 2005 (7.71%), 15 Mar 2005 (-2.81%), 13 May 2005 (7.14%), 21 Jun 2005 (-2.3%), 22 Jun 2005 (7.24%), 19 Jul 2005 (-2.54%), 30 Aug 2005 (-2.5%), 08 Sep 2005 (-2.54%), 05 Oct 2005 (-3.2%), 09 Nov 2005 (14.22%)
20041001 Jan 2004 (-2.39%), 09 Jan 2004 (-3.37%), 08 Mar 2004 (-3.85%), 26 May 2004 (-4.15%), 15 Jun 2004 (9.66%), 03 Sep 2004 (-1.7%), 29 Sep 2004 (-2.11%), 01 Nov 2004 (-2.49%), 02 Nov 2004 (-2.61%), 11 Nov 2004 (7.69%)
2003706 Jan 2003 (6.03%), 10 Mar 2003 (6.57%), 29 Apr 2003 (6.2%), 03 Jul 2003 (-2.26%), 08 Aug 2003 (7.14%), 11 Sep 2003 (-4.6%), 04 Nov 2003 (9.16%)
2002814 Jan 2002 (-3.06%), 04 Feb 2002 (-2.87%), 14 Mar 2002 (-3.95%), 01 Apr 2002 (-3.33%), 22 Apr 2002 (-3.55%), 05 Jun 2002 (12.88%), 21 Aug 2002 (-5.08%), 15 Nov 2002 (8.17%)
20011107 Feb 2001 (-4.19%), 03 Apr 2001 (-4.45%), 04 Jun 2001 (-3.02%), 13 Jun 2001 (-3.09%), 04 Jul 2001 (-3.87%), 31 Aug 2001 (-2.35%), 27 Sep 2001 (-4.43%), 10 Oct 2001 (-3.67%), 24 Oct 2001 (-3.05%), 26 Nov 2001 (-2.32%), 11 Dec 2001 (-2.36%)
2000806 Jan 2000 (11.98%), 09 Mar 2000 (-6.15%), 10 Mar 2000 (-6.57%), 24 May 2000 (-4.63%), 12 Jul 2000 (7.36%), 24 Aug 2000 (-5.73%), 22 Nov 2000 (-4.48%), 23 Nov 2000 (14.26%)
1999806 Jan 1999 (5.92%), 05 May 1999 (15.27%), 02 Jun 1999 (11.14%), 05 Jul 1999 (-3.78%), 18 Aug 1999 (9.19%), 22 Oct 1999 (-4.12%), 09 Nov 1999 (-4.1%), 10 Dec 1999 (-2.79%)
1998619 Feb 1998 (6.88%), 25 Mar 1998 (-2.25%), 26 Mar 1998 (-2.59%), 29 Jun 1998 (17.79%), 14 Aug 1998 (-4.23%), 26 Oct 1998 (-3.0%)
1997712 Feb 1997 (7.36%), 22 Apr 1997 (-2.28%), 18 Jun 1997 (5.07%), 08 Sep 1997 (-4.13%), 16 Oct 1997 (8.3%), 27 Nov 1997 (-2.88%), 28 Nov 1997 (9.0%)
1996816 Jan 1996 (-2.61%), 19 Jan 1996 (8.11%), 12 Feb 1996 (-2.82%), 02 Apr 1996 (9.62%), 07 Jun 1996 (-2.67%), 05 Aug 1996 (-3.0%), 16 Oct 1996 (-3.27%), 11 Dec 1996 (-3.21%)
1995516 May 1995 (-2.95%), 18 Jul 1995 (5.12%), 10 Oct 1995 (-1.67%), 29 Nov 1995 (-3.65%), 30 Nov 1995 (12.61%)



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