Study: Buy ASIANPAINT when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ASIANPAINT when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
131311.8879443555.72623.7716406.69-2403.83-12022.731.091.370.021396.35
265352.879483160.763782.7514644.65-3749.01-16777.111.011.560.033827.25
310364779473259.494639.3223977.03-3575.04-15048.921.31.910.0471311.98
410308879433654.435448.9921913.22-3644.96-12959.11.491.790.041304.91
512853679413851.96836.4234277.1-3993.62-17891.711.711.850.0421627.03
619734279443555.77737.6737795.28-4089.01-14211.711.892.380.0572498
720093079433654.438346.3233808.01-4387.82-10415.221.92.270.0582543.42
824915779433654.439917.2234444.63-4924.53-14511.542.012.410.0653153.89
928219579473259.499924.5430323.34-5758.07-14884.621.722.530.0713572.09
1034324479463358.2311287.540341.77-5332.75-15330.772.122.950.0784344.86
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
ASIANPAINT Performance, X=10, Profit Factor:2.95

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019322 May 2019 (4.39%), 15 Jul 2019 (11.83%), 23 Sep 2019 (-1.63%)
2018328 Sep 2018 (-3.32%), 15 Oct 2018 (-4.32%), 30 Oct 2018 (10.39%)
2017123 Feb 2017 (2.11%)
2016302 Sep 2016 (-0.21%), 06 Oct 2016 (-6.78%), 25 Nov 2016 (-0.39%)
2015308 Jan 2015 (5.7%), 14 May 2015 (-3.65%), 22 Jun 2015 (4.79%)
2014224 Jul 2014 (-0.35%), 04 Sep 2014 (4.3%)
2013102 Sep 2013 (4.57%)
2012603 Jan 2012 (3.63%), 28 Feb 2012 (0.89%), 30 Mar 2012 (2.66%), 31 May 2012 (-3.75%), 06 Nov 2012 (-4.28%), 20 Dec 2012 (-0.95%)
2011314 Feb 2011 (-7.67%), 13 May 2011 (8.6%), 30 Jun 2011 (-1.72%)
2010504 Jan 2010 (4.36%), 14 May 2010 (-1.9%), 16 Jul 2010 (5.23%), 20 Aug 2010 (1.53%), 06 Sep 2010 (-1.18%)
2009411 Feb 2009 (-2.12%), 18 Mar 2009 (4.09%), 13 May 2009 (15.02%), 16 Dec 2009 (1.12%)
2008218 Jul 2008 (15.29%), 31 Oct 2008 (1.81%)
2007315 Jan 2007 (2.04%), 19 Mar 2007 (7.43%), 13 Jun 2007 (-3.22%)
2006405 Oct 2006 (-4.57%), 01 Nov 2006 (3.23%), 01 Dec 2006 (0.87%), 29 Dec 2006 (5.91%)
2005524 Jan 2005 (6.71%), 07 Jun 2005 (1.8%), 21 Jun 2005 (4.21%), 19 Jul 2005 (4.45%), 31 Aug 2005 (3.52%)
2004509 Jan 2004 (0.77%), 08 Mar 2004 (-0.18%), 26 May 2004 (-1.07%), 15 Jun 2004 (4.86%), 01 Nov 2004 (-2.82%)
2003406 Jan 2003 (1.67%), 10 Mar 2003 (4.05%), 03 Jul 2003 (-0.25%), 11 Sep 2003 (-2.55%)
2002121 Aug 2002 (1.86%)
2001507 Feb 2001 (-2.36%), 03 Apr 2001 (9.0%), 31 Aug 2001 (0.21%), 27 Sep 2001 (-3.43%), 24 Oct 2001 (-0.13%)
2000411 Apr 2000 (-5.17%), 24 May 2000 (-2.72%), 24 Aug 2000 (-1.93%), 22 Nov 2000 (8.98%)
1999205 May 1999 (13.46%), 05 Jul 1999 (3.4%)
1998329 Jun 1998 (13.85%), 14 Aug 1998 (-2.92%), 26 Oct 1998 (-1.26%)
1997118 Jun 1997 (20.17%)
1996413 Feb 1996 (3.3%), 05 Aug 1996 (-2.88%), 16 Oct 1996 (1.6%), 11 Dec 1996 (2.75%)
1995221 Jun 1995 (-6.32%), 29 Nov 1995 (17.19%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail35.3698352.590345637.7810636.2928529.91-4701.45-10741.592.261.370.0231092.81
atrtrail-16.2798226.790335736.6710983.6636210.96-4635.69-10741.592.371.370.0221091.41
atrtrail24.6986245.6390355538.899949.4623717.53-4763.37-10741.592.091.330.023958.28
atrnil26.6399725.8589355439.3312889.7323717.53-6507.68-12584.231.981.280.0231120.52
atrnil38.9111096787266129.8919502.8635576.3-6493.57-12584.2331.280.0211275.48

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.37. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 37.78%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.55%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.023, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, Profit Factor:1.37

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019322 May 2019 (-1.18%), 15 Jul 2019 (1.07%), 23 Sep 2019 (-2.66%)
2018328 Sep 2018 (-2.91%), 12 Oct 2018 (-2.67%), 30 Oct 2018 (10.65%)
2017123 Feb 2017 (0.32%)
2016402 Sep 2016 (0.91%), 06 Oct 2016 (-2.08%), 13 Oct 2016 (-2.1%), 25 Nov 2016 (-1.09%)
2015308 Jan 2015 (8.54%), 14 May 2015 (-3.16%), 22 Jun 2015 (-1.52%)
2014224 Jul 2014 (1.07%), 04 Sep 2014 (6.45%)
2013202 Sep 2013 (-4.57%), 05 Sep 2013 (13.89%)
2012803 Jan 2012 (9.6%), 28 Feb 2012 (0.12%), 06 Mar 2012 (-2.37%), 30 Mar 2012 (0.64%), 31 May 2012 (-2.66%), 01 Jun 2012 (-3.12%), 06 Nov 2012 (0.08%), 20 Dec 2012 (-1.82%)
2011314 Feb 2011 (-2.88%), 13 May 2011 (7.92%), 30 Jun 2011 (1.15%)
2010504 Jan 2010 (0.24%), 14 May 2010 (-1.93%), 16 Jul 2010 (-0.3%), 20 Aug 2010 (-2.74%), 06 Sep 2010 (-2.18%)
2009411 Feb 2009 (-1.9%), 18 Mar 2009 (-3.74%), 13 May 2009 (9.99%), 16 Dec 2009 (-0.58%)
2008218 Jul 2008 (11.43%), 31 Oct 2008 (-3.09%)
2007315 Jan 2007 (-0.15%), 19 Mar 2007 (5.13%), 13 Jun 2007 (-2.55%)
2006405 Oct 2006 (-2.63%), 01 Nov 2006 (-0.16%), 01 Dec 2006 (-3.05%), 29 Dec 2006 (-0.88%)
2005824 Jan 2005 (7.71%), 07 Jun 2005 (-2.27%), 15 Jun 2005 (-2.03%), 21 Jun 2005 (-2.3%), 22 Jun 2005 (3.35%), 19 Jul 2005 (0.57%), 31 Aug 2005 (-2.45%), 08 Sep 2005 (0.59%)
2004609 Jan 2004 (-1.96%), 08 Mar 2004 (-2.81%), 26 May 2004 (-3.56%), 15 Jun 2004 (2.69%), 01 Nov 2004 (-2.49%), 02 Nov 2004 (-2.61%)
2003406 Jan 2003 (6.03%), 10 Mar 2003 (6.57%), 03 Jul 2003 (-1.09%), 11 Sep 2003 (-3.6%)
2002121 Aug 2002 (1.01%)
2001607 Feb 2001 (-0.92%), 03 Apr 2001 (-1.63%), 31 Aug 2001 (-0.87%), 27 Sep 2001 (-4.43%), 10 Oct 2001 (-3.67%), 24 Oct 2001 (-2.99%)
2000511 Apr 2000 (-4.62%), 24 May 2000 (-4.31%), 24 Aug 2000 (-5.37%), 22 Nov 2000 (-4.48%), 23 Nov 2000 (14.26%)
1999205 May 1999 (9.02%), 05 Jul 1999 (-0.65%)
1998329 Jun 1998 (9.71%), 14 Aug 1998 (1.53%), 26 Oct 1998 (-0.99%)
1997118 Jun 1997 (5.07%)
1996413 Feb 1996 (8.59%), 05 Aug 1996 (-1.33%), 16 Oct 1996 (2.28%), 11 Dec 1996 (-0.33%)
1995321 Jun 1995 (-1.57%), 29 Nov 1995 (-3.65%), 30 Nov 1995 (12.61%)



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