Study: Buy ASIANPAINT when RSI is above 50 and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ASIANPAINT when RSI is above 50 and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1118371912763.162591.447702.33-2751.47-6411.040.941.610.039623
2-299.581910952.634276.0914098.36-4784.5-11901.840.890.99-0.00052-15.77
3-37640.791981142.113640.5810240.14-6069.59-19745.140.60.44-0.061-1981.09
4-14389.331991047.375967.9516231.54-6810.09-20877.850.880.79-0.019-757.33
5-8163.71910952.636269.2914112-7872.96-19822.370.80.88-0.01-429.67
6-12807.81910952.635666.7411248.37-7719.47-12691.470.730.82-0.018-674.09
7-16836.21910952.635468.259798.84-7946.52-15950.920.690.76-0.023-886.12
81452.081911857.895218.1512651.43-6993.45-16503.070.751.030.002176.43
911633.41910952.637042.0116241.41-6531.85-18036.811.081.20.015612.28
10-74531.831981142.117016.4612668.91-11878.5-73191.190.590.43-0.044-3922.73

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.61. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.16%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.31%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.039, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-11118371912763.162591.447702.33-2751.47-6411.040.941.610.039623
atrnil36.45-24532.112251722.7316730.7921343.65-6363.89-8858.682.630.77-0.023-1115.1
atrtrail34.23-17993.442271531.828484.5316721.8-5159.01-8858.681.640.77-0.022-817.88
atrtrail23.77-19801.072271531.828226.314229.1-5159.01-8858.681.590.74-0.026-900.05
atrnil24.86-52416.752251722.7311153.8614229.1-6363.89-8858.681.750.52-0.064-2382.58
atrtrail-14.76-38914.872171433.335325.0510188.81-5442.16-8858.680.980.49-0.065-1853.09

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.61. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.16%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.31%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.039, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.61

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018115 May 2018 (0.69%)
2017125 Apr 2017 (0.61%)
2013103 Nov 2013 (1.87%)
2012128 Mar 2012 (2.71%)
2011130 May 2011 (1.66%)
2009112 Jun 2009 (0.99%)
2008111 Sep 2008 (-0.14%)
2006125 Aug 2006 (0.83%)
2005107 Jan 2005 (0.55%)
2003119 May 2003 (-0.59%)
2001127 Sep 2001 (-0.49%)
2000119 Jul 2000 (1.06%)
1999109 Jul 1999 (3.85%)
1998305 May 1998 (-3.21%), 16 Sep 1998 (0.08%), 15 Dec 1998 (-1.35%)
1997102 Jul 1997 (-1.67%)
1996114 Feb 1996 (-2.18%)
1995115 Dec 1995 (0.66%)



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