Study: Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-15181.4148232547.923091.369851.19-3451.3-110590.90.82-0.015-316.28
2-11257.248222645.834907.4516636.9-4585.42-23830.711.070.91-0.007-234.52
34085.6948262254.175272.5520863.1-6045.49-20686.250.871.030.002385.12
4-5131.98482424506502.3834188.66-6716.22-20816.530.970.97-0.0023-106.92
5-19293.7448252352.086307.5330168.29-7694.87-20389.60.820.89-0.0086-401.95
6-10876.348272156.256597.245532.93-9000.04-23079.240.730.94-0.0041-226.59
721612.4148262254.177652.958913.36-8061.96-22088.160.951.120.0075450.26
812312.27482424508604.6343091.63-8091.62-19453.921.061.060.0046256.51
950856.8148252352.089904.748504.05-8554.81-23303.311.161.260.0171059.52
1014079048291960.4210517.2652732.18-8642.64-21803.771.221.860.0472933.13
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil36.6518226272254734.7218302.1146764.36-5857.24-12606.143.121.660.0412531.42
atrnil24.7510274873304341.111908.5231176.24-5918.79-12606.142.011.40.031407.5
atrtrail-15.2993382.1577284936.3611873.8461180.27-4879.29-9752.792.431.390.0221212.76
atrtrail34.4782408.2777294837.6611066.2346764.36-4969.01-9752.792.231.350.0221070.24
atrtrail23.744557.4677304738.969165.531176.24-4902.29-9752.791.871.190.015578.67

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.66. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 34.72%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.27%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.041, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, Profit Factor:1.66

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019310 Apr 2019 (-2.19%), 07 May 2019 (-2.25%), 05 Sep 2019 (6.13%)
2018530 Aug 2018 (-1.9%), 04 Sep 2018 (-2.24%), 10 Sep 2018 (-2.19%), 24 Sep 2018 (-3.01%), 10 Dec 2018 (7.92%)
2017424 May 2017 (7.41%), 28 Jun 2017 (-2.09%), 28 Sep 2017 (6.48%), 07 Nov 2017 (-1.97%)
2016621 Oct 2016 (-2.14%), 24 Oct 2016 (-2.27%), 27 Oct 2016 (-2.74%), 02 Nov 2016 (-2.62%), 03 Nov 2016 (-2.78%), 10 Nov 2016 (-3.45%)
2015406 Feb 2015 (-3.4%), 27 Mar 2015 (8.19%), 27 Apr 2015 (9.35%), 08 Jun 2015 (-2.77%)
2014421 Jan 2014 (-2.19%), 25 Apr 2014 (-2.48%), 28 Apr 2014 (7.97%), 25 Aug 2014 (7.23%)
2013916 Jan 2013 (5.26%), 26 Feb 2013 (-1.87%), 28 Feb 2013 (6.44%), 09 Apr 2013 (7.57%), 06 Jun 2013 (-2.2%), 11 Jun 2013 (-2.21%), 24 Jun 2013 (7.08%), 27 Nov 2013 (-2.79%), 13 Dec 2013 (-2.29%)
2012306 Jul 2012 (-2.55%), 19 Jul 2012 (-2.25%), 25 Jul 2012 (7.7%)
2011525 Jan 2011 (-2.73%), 02 Aug 2011 (6.78%), 13 Sep 2011 (-2.41%), 16 Sep 2011 (-2.53%), 21 Nov 2011 (-3.54%)
2010330 Sep 2010 (8.17%), 19 Oct 2010 (-2.89%), 27 Oct 2010 (8.41%)
2008322 Jan 2008 (23.38%), 25 Jun 2008 (-3.62%), 30 Jun 2008 (-3.98%)
2007223 Feb 2007 (-4.05%), 01 Mar 2007 (-4.87%)
2006313 Apr 2006 (-3.4%), 18 May 2006 (-4.15%), 19 May 2006 (-4.88%)
2005306 Jan 2005 (7.36%), 27 Apr 2005 (-1.86%), 28 Apr 2005 (6.62%)
2002220 May 2002 (-3.53%), 30 May 2002 (13.44%)
2000216 Feb 2000 (-6.3%), 29 Feb 2000 (18.29%)
1999403 Aug 1999 (12.23%), 24 Dec 1999 (-2.89%), 27 Dec 1999 (-3.09%), 29 Dec 1999 (10.97%)
1997229 Jul 1997 (8.17%), 05 Aug 1997 (-4.31%)
1996521 May 1996 (-3.55%), 28 May 1996 (10.21%), 17 Jul 1996 (-2.49%), 18 Jul 1996 (-2.77%), 19 Jul 1996 (-2.93%)



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