Study: Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy ASIANPAINT when above 200 SMA and RSI is oversold" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
110935.65118372.733963.3411655.88-6923.69-13163.330.571.530.032994.15
225493.21118372.735466.5414796.61-6079.71-11239.920.92.40.0682317.56
336459.39118372.737623.1216179.17-8175.19-11596.270.932.490.083314.49
444585.83117463.6410964.3723191.88-8041.2-20816.531.362.390.0744053.26
528111.11116554.559893.0815900.88-6249.47-17691.531.581.90.0542555.56
629115.68116554.559525.5115522.29-5607.47-17036.291.72.040.0592646.88
746013.2116554.551203229503.66-5235.76-17691.532.32.760.0734183.02
843427.75115645.4515119.4529614.27-5361.58-17414.312.822.350.0643947.98
948130.3116554.5514264.2730969.17-7491.07-20413.311.92.290.0644375.48
1044598.04117463.6412186.9831549.84-10177.71-20114.031.22.10.0594054.37

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 7 trading days. Profit factor is 2.76. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.55%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.09%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.073, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
ASIANPAINT Performance, X=7, Profit Factor:2.76

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018104 Sep 2018 (1.72%)
2016128 Oct 2016 (-1.21%)
2015127 Apr 2015 (2.81%)
2013113 Jun 2013 (-1.15%)
2010127 Oct 2010 (7.45%)
2007102 Mar 2007 (-0.76%)
2005128 Apr 2005 (2.98%)
2002230 May 2002 (6.38%), 30 Oct 2002 (-1.14%)
1999129 Dec 1999 (14.75%)
1996117 Jul 1996 (-8.85%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1746013.2116554.551203229503.66-5235.76-17691.532.32.760.0734183.02
atrnil39.1250830.471761135.2919166.8826888.34-5833.71-9995.693.291.790.0492990.03
atrnil26.8831989.341771041.1812808.9417925.56-5767.32-9995.692.221.550.0411881.73
atrtrail33.88-3282.661771041.186327.2216826.62-4757.32-9995.691.330.93-0.0057-193.1
atrtrail23.18-3488.011771041.186297.8814632.59-4757.32-9995.691.320.93-0.0063-205.18
atrtrail-14.24-6867.781771041.185815.0617052.47-4757.32-9995.691.220.86-0.013-403.99

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.76. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.55%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 2.09%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.073, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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