Study: Sell ASIANPAINT when RSI is above 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell ASIANPAINT when RSI is above 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell ASIANPAINT at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-874.26120655554.172264.3712347.47-2691.97-9788.40.840.99-0.00044-7.29
2-51098.03120556545.833104.6719752.07-3413.15-25197.870.910.77-0.018-425.82
3-91933.13120516942.53924.5924427.94-4233.15-32854.140.930.69-0.026-766.11
4-113539120526843.334534.9130108.39-5137.56-23344.040.880.68-0.028-946.16
5-110006120507041.675253.1527057.41-5323.77-33521.660.990.7-0.025-916.72
6-1651881204872405806.324608.59-6165.14-50261.560.940.63-0.031-1376.57
7-156013120507041.676290.1724049.38-6721.73-38752.880.940.67-0.028-1300.11
8-1731071205466456199.4426915.02-7695.1-42812.30.810.66-0.03-1442.56
9-193539120566446.676303.2131914.89-8539.36-39171.370.740.65-0.032-1612.82
10-253534120566446.675728.8833002.19-8974.24-34065.70.640.56-0.041-2112.78

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 0.99. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.17%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.0036%, we advise you not to use this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-11-874.26120655554.172264.3712347.47-2691.97-9788.40.840.99-0.00044-7.29
atrtrail24.48-72103147499833.337529.3219258.06-4500.41-9477.971.670.84-0.015-490.5
atrnil26.44-1351791444210229.1710952.3419258.06-5835.08-14103.621.880.77-0.024-938.75
atrtrail35.06-1319131454510031.036999.0928887.1-4468.72-9477.971.570.7-0.027-909.74
atrtrail-15.48-1583181444310129.866769.9634596.2-4449.76-9477.971.520.65-0.032-1099.43
atrnil38.7-3148021422311916.216346.0828887.1-5804.72-14103.622.820.54-0.053-2216.91

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.99. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.17%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.0036%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
ASIANPAINT Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:0.994

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019414 Jan 2019 (-1.25%), 13 Feb 2019 (1.75%), 22 Aug 2019 (-0.65%), 16 Oct 2019 (-2.64%)
2018426 Apr 2018 (-2.24%), 25 May 2018 (-2.28%), 02 Aug 2018 (0.46%), 07 Dec 2018 (3.37%)
2017713 Feb 2017 (0.4%), 24 Mar 2017 (2.01%), 18 May 2017 (2.45%), 08 Jun 2017 (-1.09%), 08 Aug 2017 (-0.71%), 22 Sep 2017 (1.34%), 15 Nov 2017 (0.17%)
2016618 Mar 2016 (1.79%), 03 May 2016 (-0.18%), 09 Jun 2016 (0.68%), 16 Aug 2016 (1.43%), 14 Sep 2016 (-0.86%), 17 Oct 2016 (0.66%)
2015112 Aug 2015 (-0.34%)
2014715 Apr 2014 (-0.07%), 10 Jul 2014 (3.09%), 08 Aug 2014 (0.67%), 22 Sep 2014 (2.75%), 17 Oct 2014 (-1.17%), 11 Nov 2014 (0.82%), 15 Dec 2014 (1.09%)
2013512 Feb 2013 (0.85%), 02 Apr 2013 (0.11%), 01 Aug 2013 (0.15%), 07 Oct 2013 (0.82%), 12 Nov 2013 (1.43%)
2012622 Feb 2012 (0.48%), 07 Mar 2012 (-2.58%), 18 May 2012 (-1.44%), 04 Jun 2012 (-0.94%), 04 Oct 2012 (1.62%), 14 Dec 2012 (0.73%)
2011504 Jan 2011 (-1.56%), 11 May 2011 (-2.93%), 10 Jun 2011 (1.15%), 11 Jul 2011 (1.93%), 07 Sep 2011 (1.23%)
2010721 Jan 2010 (2.59%), 16 Feb 2010 (1.17%), 16 Mar 2010 (-3.38%), 12 Apr 2010 (-0.68%), 29 Jun 2010 (2.49%), 16 Aug 2010 (0.38%), 30 Aug 2010 (-1.83%)
2009512 Jun 2009 (-0.99%), 09 Jul 2009 (0.51%), 07 Aug 2009 (0.61%), 10 Nov 2009 (-0.52%), 30 Dec 2009 (-1.8%)
2008513 Feb 2008 (-0.52%), 14 Mar 2008 (3.07%), 08 May 2008 (0.92%), 18 Jun 2008 (-0.55%), 20 Aug 2008 (0.17%)
2007602 Feb 2007 (1.17%), 24 Apr 2007 (-0.5%), 11 Jun 2007 (-3.06%), 27 Jul 2007 (1.08%), 22 Aug 2007 (-0.13%), 09 Nov 2007 (6.17%)
2006617 Feb 2006 (0.43%), 22 Aug 2006 (0.54%), 22 Sep 2006 (0.49%), 09 Oct 2006 (-0.45%), 08 Dec 2006 (-0.08%), 22 Dec 2006 (0.07%)
2005921 Feb 2005 (-2.66%), 04 Apr 2005 (0.01%), 03 Jun 2005 (-0.04%), 17 Jun 2005 (1.07%), 15 Jul 2005 (-3.59%), 09 Aug 2005 (-0.33%), 02 Sep 2005 (-0.37%), 23 Sep 2005 (-2.84%), 10 Oct 2005 (0.18%)
2004407 Jan 2004 (-2.36%), 07 Jul 2004 (-1.4%), 16 Aug 2004 (0.08%), 24 Dec 2004 (0.56%)
2003228 Jan 2003 (0.93%), 17 Jul 2003 (-1.41%)
2002501 Feb 2002 (0.11%), 11 Mar 2002 (0.31%), 03 Apr 2002 (0.08%), 26 Apr 2002 (0.12%), 17 Sep 2002 (-0.44%)
2001324 Aug 2001 (-0.06%), 05 Oct 2001 (0.89%), 20 Nov 2001 (-1.62%)
2000307 Feb 2000 (-1.37%), 07 Apr 2000 (0.36%), 26 Dec 2000 (-0.33%)
1999431 May 1999 (-2.11%), 01 Jul 1999 (-4.89%), 08 Sep 1999 (-1.52%), 22 Nov 1999 (-1.15%)
1998409 Jan 1998 (1.79%), 06 Aug 1998 (-0.26%), 27 Aug 1998 (1.26%), 27 Nov 1998 (0.32%)
1997314 Mar 1997 (1.16%), 16 May 1997 (0.07%), 15 Jul 1997 (0.76%)
1996510 Jan 1996 (-0.78%), 29 Jan 1996 (-0.2%), 01 Mar 1996 (5.25%), 07 May 1996 (-3.59%), 28 Jun 1996 (0.57%)
1995420 Apr 1995 (-0.83%), 29 May 1995 (-1.53%), 26 Jun 1995 (0.41%), 16 Aug 1995 (-0.92%)



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