Study: Sell AXISBANK when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell AXISBANK when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell AXISBANK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-36035.9836132336.114177.6812881.36-3928.08-13209.031.060.6-0.039-1001
2-58346.1736132336.115402.5826137.45-5590.42-27358.190.970.55-0.042-1620.73
3-49990.6336171947.226185.8433333.33-8165.78-25271.910.760.68-0.029-1388.63
4-54461.7836162044.447242.7237216.83-8517.26-34239.690.850.68-0.029-1512.83
5-48878.9636171947.229543.7945631.07-11111.76-35214.450.860.77-0.02-1357.75
6-61326.6236152141.6711644.7543327.62-11238-46396.841.040.74-0.024-1703.52
7-76915.3436152141.6713058.1448638.87-12989.88-39189.191.010.72-0.027-2136.54
8-77524.1136142238.8913727.4156634.3-12259.45-35103.651.120.71-0.027-2153.45
9-12318436132336.1115439.3746011.8-14082.44-46777.241.10.62-0.041-3421.79
10-10142536142238.8914224.7744469.83-13662.34-54461.471.040.66-0.033-2817.35
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil25.03-206477406341521278.2527310.91-9827.84-23522.132.170.38-0.094-5161.92
atrtrail23.42-1777554073317.511925.4527310.91-7916.15-19343.591.510.32-0.099-4443.87
atrtrail-14.08-2042984073317.58133.5425195.12-7916.15-19343.591.030.22-0.13-5107.45
atrtrail33.98-2073734073317.57694.2522120.11-7916.15-19343.590.970.21-0.14-5184.33
atrnil39.05-281107373348.1123716.6632353.29-10360.49-23522.132.290.2-0.16-7597.48

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.38. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
AXISBANK Performance, Profit Factor:0.382

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019217 Jun 2019 (-2.3%), 19 Sep 2019 (-2.97%)
2018226 Mar 2018 (-2.99%), 03 Apr 2018 (-2.98%)
2017101 Dec 2017 (-2.63%)
2016607 Jan 2016 (-2.47%), 04 Feb 2016 (-3.93%), 21 Jul 2016 (-2.38%), 26 Oct 2016 (-3.37%), 07 Dec 2016 (-2.97%), 23 Dec 2016 (-2.87%)
2014114 Feb 2014 (-2.72%)
2013423 May 2013 (5.56%), 17 Jul 2013 (-3.54%), 18 Jul 2013 (7.37%), 19 Aug 2013 (-5.64%)
2012127 Feb 2012 (-4.57%)
2010125 Jan 2010 (-3.38%)
2009105 Aug 2009 (-5.68%)
2008322 Jan 2008 (-8.07%), 04 Apr 2008 (-9.34%), 12 Nov 2008 (-11.76%)
2007113 Feb 2007 (-5.8%)
2006223 Mar 2006 (-5.1%), 18 Jul 2006 (-7.15%)
2004203 Feb 2004 (-9.67%), 26 Oct 2004 (-5.69%)
2003327 Jan 2003 (-5.98%), 05 Mar 2003 (-7.21%), 22 Oct 2003 (-5.57%)
2002626 Jun 2002 (-6.32%), 17 Jul 2002 (-6.63%), 18 Jul 2002 (13.66%), 18 Sep 2002 (-3.77%), 31 Oct 2002 (-3.71%), 14 Nov 2002 (-3.52%)
2001131 Jan 2001 (10.78%)
1999322 Feb 1999 (-4.39%), 15 Mar 1999 (13.45%), 28 Oct 1999 (13.01%)



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