Study: Sell AXISBANK when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell AXISBANK when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell AXISBANK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-56188.921541126.673033.977799.5-6211.35-15367.680.490.18-0.14-3745.93
2-68663.021541126.674125.7710446.12-7742.37-16899.660.530.19-0.14-4577.53
3-53981.861569403326.359884.71-8215.55-21067.820.40.27-0.1-3598.79
4-46173.821569406020.7510145.36-9144.26-15779.390.660.44-0.076-3078.25
5-37431.751569407330.4413253.13-9046.04-16162.390.810.54-0.06-2495.45
6-78081.831551033.336408.2811228.07-11012.32-19288.790.580.29-0.12-5205.46
7-75686.751541126.679219.1513226.73-10233.03-21595.620.90.33-0.1-5045.78
8-51887.321551033.3310061.6120267.76-10219.54-29561.780.980.49-0.06-3459.15
9-76957.191551033.335953.0711047.62-10672.25-312500.560.28-0.097-5130.48
10-60897.891541126.6711463.6727660.65-9704.78-21562.451.180.43-0.071-4059.86
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200nil31.67-20771.292141719.057502.4510907.82-2987.12-3933.622.510.59-0.051-989.11
atrnil25.88-58371.661741323.5316721.4728472.21-9635.19-17676.511.740.53-0.063-3433.63
200trail31.67-25246.192131814.298003.2610907.82-2736.44-3933.622.920.49-0.068-1202.2
atrnil37.29-76421.051721511.7630854.7742708.31-9208.71-17676.513.350.45-0.071-4495.36
200trail21.52-28365.482141719.055001.637271.88-2845.41-3933.621.760.41-0.093-1350.74
200nil21.52-30774.552141719.055001.637271.88-2987.12-3933.621.670.39-0.1-1465.45
atrtrail24.65-84643.441741323.537878.3912879.47-8935.15-17676.510.880.27-0.13-4979.03
200trail-12.19-35975.912131814.294426.697416.54-2736.44-3933.621.620.27-0.14-1713.14
atrtrail34.88-99194.81741323.534240.557034.89-8935.15-17676.510.470.15-0.2-5834.99
atrtrail-14.88-99194.81741323.534240.557034.89-8935.15-17676.510.470.15-0.2-5834.99

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.59. This strategy is not profitable and we advice you not to use it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
AXISBANK Performance, Profit Factor:0.591

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018201 Mar 2018 (3.41%), 09 Oct 2018 (-1.53%)
2016111 Nov 2016 (3.14%)
2013114 Jun 2013 (5.45%)
2012207 Feb 2012 (-1.6%), 20 Sep 2012 (-1.24%)
2008110 Mar 2008 (-1.83%)
2006225 May 2006 (-1.66%), 01 Aug 2006 (-1.26%)
20021019 Aug 2002 (-1.34%), 21 Aug 2002 (-1.14%), 29 Aug 2002 (-1.48%), 30 Aug 2002 (-1.45%), 20 Sep 2002 (-1.97%), 24 Sep 2002 (-1.9%), 04 Oct 2002 (-1.18%), 07 Oct 2002 (-1.58%), 08 Oct 2002 (-1.16%), 21 Nov 2002 (-1.76%)
2000116 Oct 2000 (-1.33%)
1999115 Sep 1999 (3.0%)



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