Study: Buy AXISBANK when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy AXISBANK when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy AXISBANK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-22756.57146842.862383.627147.97-4632.29-14681.110.510.39-0.071-1625.47
2-26538.971441028.573675.739202.25-4124.19-9626.960.890.36-0.09-1895.64
35119.251477504522.519864.28-3791.19-9691.631.191.190.016365.66
452.29146842.866705.7811271.17-5022.8-10317.361.3410.000123.73
5-8893.84148657.144902.2314440.43-8018.62-11837.170.610.82-0.019-635.27
6-24898.23145935.714950.698581.28-5516.85-11927.340.90.5-0.063-1778.45
7-11172.131477506339.3511741.12-7935.36-20950.820.80.8-0.02-798.01
8-364.5146842.869842.2524491.54-7427.25-19975.931.330.99-0.00051-26.04
9-3031.15146842.868625.6715730.34-6848.15-11981.521.260.94-0.0056-216.51
10-12703.68146842.866886.1916441.47-6752.6-11606.21.020.76-0.025-907.41
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil310.655859.361741323.5327931.643380.27-8143.62-13727.453.431.060.0047344.67
atrnil27.881630.351761135.2916082.1728920.18-8623.88-13727.451.861.020.001795.9
atrtrail34.59-33521.091741323.5314415.4843380.27-7014.08-13727.452.060.63-0.034-1971.83
atrtrail24.29-38075.041741323.531327728920.18-7014.08-13727.451.890.58-0.047-2239.71
atrtrail-14.71-60882.361741323.537575.1716019.01-7014.08-13727.451.080.33-0.1-3581.32

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.06. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 23.53%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.17%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.0047, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Average holding period is on the higher side, note this before entering the trade that you you may need to hold the positions for a longer time.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
AXISBANK Performance, Profit Factor:1.06

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018116 Aug 2018 (-2.97%)
2017208 Jun 2017 (-2.13%), 01 Nov 2017 (9.13%)
2016130 May 2016 (-2.54%)
2014131 Jan 2014 (-3.17%)
2012420 Mar 2012 (-4.14%), 27 Aug 2012 (-2.78%), 30 Aug 2012 (-2.8%), 19 Oct 2012 (10.01%)
2009101 Jun 2009 (-6.86%)
2006118 Sep 2006 (-3.51%)
2004104 Nov 2004 (15.04%)
2002318 Feb 2002 (-5.84%), 19 Feb 2002 (21.69%), 18 Dec 2002 (-5.19%)
1999217 Sep 1999 (-5.41%), 20 Sep 1999 (-5.6%)



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