Study: Buy BAJAJFINSV when below 200 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy BAJAJFINSV when below 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy BAJAJFINSV at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
122414.123121152.173694.4213290.48-1992.63-5713.191.852.020.073974.53
231690.1823111247.835904.1810990.57-2771.32-6952.192.131.950.0821377.83
325086.7623131056.524866.8811721.7-3818.27-14170.071.271.660.0541090.73
434733.662315865.225135.3412547.17-5287.06-11670.870.971.820.071510.16
557359.122315865.227328.8919095.23-6571.78-14682.071.122.090.0892493.87
672291.892315865.227788.4919285.83-5566.94-16035.861.42.620.113143.13
761469.632315865.228495.6521094.73-8245.65-19442.231.031.930.082672.59
858502.922315865.229040.0819618.87-9637.29-18207.170.941.760.0722543.61
9640462314960.8710922.3320295.5-9874.07-16593.631.111.720.0732784.61
1078753.562315865.2211793.5223380.42-12268.65-31075.70.961.80.0763424.07

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 6 trading days. Profit factor is 2.62. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 65.22%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
BAJAJFINSV Performance, X=6, Profit Factor:2.62

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019328 Jan 2019 (-0.56%), 18 Feb 2019 (9.64%), 25 Jul 2019 (4.15%)
2018230 Jan 2018 (2.8%), 22 Oct 2018 (2.68%)
2016211 Feb 2016 (-1.38%), 20 May 2016 (1.9%)
2013913 Feb 2013 (6.73%), 19 Mar 2013 (0.82%), 04 Apr 2013 (-0.9%), 30 Apr 2013 (2.04%), 16 May 2013 (-7.36%), 31 May 2013 (-1.88%), 17 Jun 2013 (0.56%), 26 Jul 2013 (-1.16%), 20 Aug 2013 (3.91%)
2011510 Jan 2011 (-1.02%), 31 Jan 2011 (1.59%), 16 Nov 2011 (-8.02%), 30 Nov 2011 (0.13%), 20 Dec 2011 (9.54%)
2010222 Mar 2010 (5.74%), 16 Apr 2010 (6.19%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1672291.892315865.227788.4919285.83-5566.94-16035.861.42.620.113143.13
atrtrail24.5984340.3837191851.3510234.0420470.25-6117.02-11117.621.671.770.0722279.47
atrnil26.9177176.0133141942.4214897.6220470.25-6915.3-11117.622.151.590.0632338.67
atrnil310.1648925.033192229.0322292.0830676.42-6895.62-11117.623.231.320.0351578.23
atrtrail-16.148362.7837162143.247896.7433141.93-5618.34-11117.621.411.070.0077226.02
atrtrail35.387700.7737162143.247855.3724563.4-5618.34-11117.621.41.070.0075208.13

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.62. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 65.22%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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