Study: Sell BALRAMCHIN when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell BALRAMCHIN when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell BALRAMCHIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-77663.4342222052.383333.557976.07-7550.08-20675.110.440.49-0.058-1849.13
2-11419442192345.245458.1620638.09-9473.88-27702.70.580.48-0.058-2718.91
3-10240642192345.246699.7530309.07-9986.99-43243.240.670.55-0.043-2438.23
4-75735.7142192345.246705.8126719.84-8832.44-46621.620.760.63-0.032-1803.23
5-49150.0142182442.869559.4420970.7-9217.49-46846.851.040.78-0.019-1170.24
6-8509.242202247.6211109.3147955.9-10486.15-34909.911.060.96-0.0028-202.6
770802.0642241857.1413998.5777078.55-14731.31-33787.470.951.270.0181685.76
894390.6242202247.6217403.6366789.16-11531-36036.041.511.370.0252247.4
911650842231954.7615824.0363849.33-13023.42-42792.791.221.470.0292774
1011784742241857.1415456.8548901.1-14062.07-43918.921.11.470.0312805.88
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil38.83-70333.0342103223.8130879.5736921.15-11847.77-35778.852.610.81-0.019-1674.6
atrnil27.77-76987.4143142932.5619713.124614.1-12171.41-35778.851.620.78-0.024-1790.4
atrtrail34.72-54086.3643172639.5311392.8136921.15-9529.39-18746.351.20.78-0.02-1257.82
atrtrail24.44-7686543172639.5310052.8924614.1-9529.39-18746.351.050.69-0.033-1787.56
atrtrail-15.19-12448443172639.537251.7623439.49-9529.39-18746.350.760.5-0.062-2894.98

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.81. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 23.81%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.84%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
BALRAMCHIN Performance, Profit Factor:0.814

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2018318 Jan 2018 (11.76%), 06 Mar 2018 (17.72%), 28 Mar 2018 (-8.29%)
2017110 Aug 2017 (-3.83%)
2016104 Feb 2016 (-6.28%)
2015113 Aug 2015 (18.46%)
2013314 Jan 2013 (-4.74%), 28 Oct 2013 (-4.25%), 04 Dec 2013 (16.46%)
2012126 Jul 2012 (-4.28%)
2011325 Feb 2011 (-5.67%), 21 Jun 2011 (-4.01%), 14 Sep 2011 (13.29%)
2010619 Feb 2010 (-4.78%), 11 Mar 2010 (16.84%), 15 Jul 2010 (-3.59%), 16 Sep 2010 (-3.17%), 16 Nov 2010 (12.9%), 09 Dec 2010 (-5.53%)
2009113 Jan 2009 (-9.37%)
2008311 Jan 2008 (-8.1%), 01 Jul 2008 (-8.43%), 02 Jul 2008 (-8.02%)
2007230 May 2007 (-5.57%), 08 Oct 2007 (-8.3%)
2004115 Mar 2004 (-4.48%)
2002116 May 2002 (17.46%)
2001317 Aug 2001 (-3.4%), 03 Sep 2001 (-3.41%), 17 Sep 2001 (-3.91%)
2000415 Feb 2000 (-7.8%), 08 Mar 2000 (-7.34%), 25 Jul 2000 (-4.46%), 21 Dec 2000 (-2.55%)
1999221 Jan 1999 (14.7%), 28 May 1999 (-5.08%)
1998214 Jan 1998 (-4.57%), 13 May 1998 (-7.35%)
1997111 Mar 1997 (-5.15%)
1996211 Jan 1996 (-5.96%), 09 May 1996 (-17.89%)
1995119 Oct 1995 (14.8%)



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