Study: Buy BALRAMCHIN when RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy BALRAMCHIN when RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy BALRAMCHIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-4537.261046407604.9615996.34-5826.19-17572.461.310.87-0.011-453.73
23790.1310464013295.5230073.13-8231.99-21618.361.621.080.0058379.01
33697.8310555014632.4520475.32-13892.89-25422.711.051.050.005369.78
4-44646.810464012899.620840.95-16040.87-30761.260.80.54-0.055-4464.68
5-26510.5510464014036.3720658.14-13776-30968.411.020.68-0.035-2651.06
6-35301.781055507840.5122557.23-14900.87-36768.510.530.53-0.049-3530.18
78136.671064609460.1517755.44-12156.06-34386.330.781.170.012813.67
89974.4210646010200.8618090.45-12807.69-39668.570.81.190.013997.44
9-24553.8610464011766.4119672.13-11936.58-39564.990.990.66-0.032-2455.39
10-31116.881055501088220882.19-17105.38-41118.590.640.64-0.038-3111.69
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 6 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil33.85-23173.51331023.0824498.5428433.07-9666.91-14487.262.530.76-0.026-1782.58
atrtrail22.38-32602.31331023.0816332.3618955.38-8159.94-12520.0520.6-0.049-2507.87
atrtrail32.46-34350.621331023.0815749.5924200.86-8159.94-12520.051.930.58-0.049-2642.36
atrnil22.46-47672.031331023.0816332.3618955.38-9666.91-14487.261.690.51-0.069-3667.08
atrtrail-13-44059.831331023.0812513.1820301.99-8159.94-12520.051.530.46-0.073-3389.22

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.76. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 23.08%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.89%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
BALRAMCHIN Performance, Profit Factor:0.76

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2015121 Oct 2015 (-5.22%)
2013129 Nov 2013 (-5.44%)
2010210 Nov 2010 (-3.07%), 11 Nov 2010 (-3.32%)
2009120 May 2009 (-7.24%)
2006119 Jan 2006 (-4.62%)
2003105 Jun 2003 (14.22%)
2002101 Feb 2002 (10.43%)
2000218 Sep 2000 (-3.81%), 19 Sep 2000 (-4.01%)
1999115 Oct 1999 (12.1%)
1998222 Apr 1998 (-5.34%), 23 Apr 1998 (-6.26%)



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