Study: Buy BANKINDIA when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy BANKINDIA when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy BANKINDIA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-7032.730141646.673448.346367.04-3456.84-14220.1810.87-0.011-234.42
211610.54301812604984.4615995.71-6509.15-11503.270.771.150.012387.02
3-22767.4130141646.676233.2520386.33-6877.06-19550.650.910.79-0.019-758.91
4-29831.3530141646.676500.1217830.61-7552.06-20260.150.860.75-0.025-994.38
5-22646.46301515506969.3223120.36-8479.09-15425.250.820.82-0.017-754.88
6-51906.2830131743.338106.0122109.96-9252.02-25212.460.880.67-0.034-1730.21
7-35716.530131743.339911.6623476.97-9680.47-22265.471.020.78-0.021-1190.55
8-73054.1730102033.3312266.4927267.85-9785.96-25846.631.250.63-0.04-2435.14
9-36767.1830141646.6712941.9236538.46-13622.13-34565.980.950.83-0.016-1225.57
10-59330.63015155011528.8136731.05-15484.18-38614.250.740.74-0.024-1977.69
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail-16.4948911.9535152042.8612203.0963387.72-6706.72-12585.241.821.360.021397.48
atrtrail35.7134201.0435152042.8611222.3639021.83-6706.72-12585.241.671.250.017977.17
atrtrail25.1414161.3635152042.869886.3826014.55-6706.72-12585.241.471.110.0085404.61
50trail-12.79885.0342113126.198023.3527314.06-2818.45-3972.482.851.010.0007421.07
50trail31.84-783.7543123127.917323.711519.37-2860.26-3972.482.560.99-0.00081-18.23
50nil31.88-10478.7542113126.197926.6911519.37-3150.72-3972.482.520.89-0.011-249.49
50trail21.63-13276.5543133030.235545.767679.58-2845.71-3972.481.950.84-0.017-308.76
50nil21.67-18594.5542132930.955545.767679.58-3127.22-3972.481.770.79-0.023-442.73
atrnil39.06-50415.183272521.8824613.9739021.83-8908.52-14191.722.760.77-0.023-1575.47
atrnil26.94-50805.513292328.1216988.1526014.55-8856.47-14191.721.920.75-0.028-1587.67

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.36. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 42.86%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.7%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.02, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
BANKINDIA Performance, Profit Factor:1.36

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019215 Mar 2019 (3.82%), 31 May 2019 (-2.53%)
2017411 Jan 2017 (-1.08%), 23 Jan 2017 (2.73%), 13 Sep 2017 (2.03%), 21 Sep 2017 (-3.01%)
2016121 Nov 2016 (-0.59%)
2014205 Sep 2014 (-0.03%), 27 Oct 2014 (4.69%)
2013119 Feb 2013 (-3.91%)
2012330 Mar 2012 (0.35%), 06 Jun 2012 (0.45%), 18 Jun 2012 (0.97%)
2011216 Feb 2011 (-2.66%), 28 Feb 2011 (2.75%)
2009303 Aug 2009 (-4.12%), 02 Sep 2009 (17.63%), 31 Dec 2009 (0.97%)
2007222 Mar 2007 (-6.29%), 11 Apr 2007 (12.74%)
2006103 Apr 2006 (0.17%)
2005509 Feb 2005 (31.69%), 25 May 2005 (-2.02%), 19 Sep 2005 (-4.73%), 05 Oct 2005 (-5.39%), 17 Nov 2005 (-4.41%)
2003324 Feb 2003 (-4.89%), 24 Jul 2003 (-1.46%), 04 Dec 2003 (-3.19%)
2002128 Oct 2002 (5.2%)
1999427 Aug 1999 (-2.14%), 03 Sep 1999 (5.35%), 15 Oct 1999 (-4.22%), 29 Oct 1999 (-5.98%)
1998121 May 1998 (-4.4%)



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