Study: Sell BANKINDIA when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell BANKINDIA when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell BANKINDIA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
151736.8330201066.674572.0410802.92-3970.39-6667.771.152.30.0751724.56
293210.8630219707682.6917324.69-7569.51-14262.821.012.370.0793107.03
353500.96301812606611.4318215.03-5458.73-22115.381.211.820.0461783.37
463096.2830201066.677230.1716231.09-8150.72-17725.670.891.770.052103.21
527138.6330191163.336575.920265.93-8891.22-24947.250.741.280.019904.62
619804.9130131743.3312096.7527764.71-8085.46-30742.261.51.140.011660.16
717539.783015155010063.7930536.45-8894.48-40210.41.131.130.0095584.66
88481.293015155011753.1728060.52-11187.75-53535.941.051.050.0039282.71
918512.6330141646.6714891.0838712.41-11872.66-57042.671.251.10.0072617.09
102859.373015155016184.1546901.03-15993.53-59029.811.011.010.0009595.31

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is 2.37. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 70%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.55%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.079, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
BANKINDIA Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:2.37

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019122 Aug 2019 (-7.13%)
2018210 Jan 2018 (1.42%), 12 Jul 2018 (8.66%)
2016207 Jan 2016 (1.42%), 11 Feb 2016 (-4.93%)
2014216 Apr 2014 (-6.78%), 20 Nov 2014 (-4.06%)
2013220 Mar 2013 (2.06%), 25 Jul 2013 (6.0%)
2011126 Sep 2011 (-5.17%)
2010219 Mar 2010 (4.99%), 08 Dec 2010 (1.94%)
2008121 Feb 2008 (3.78%)
2006117 Jul 2006 (6.37%)
2005124 Mar 2005 (3.9%)
2004124 Jun 2004 (-0.85%)
2003115 Sep 2003 (-0.94%)
2002202 Sep 2002 (3.67%), 19 Sep 2002 (1.75%)
2001223 Feb 2001 (7.44%), 22 Jun 2001 (0.68%)
2000119 Jul 2000 (1.27%)
1999218 Jan 1999 (-3.85%), 17 Sep 1999 (3.43%)
1998312 Jan 1998 (4.23%), 19 Aug 1998 (-0.35%), 30 Oct 1998 (2.33%)
1997324 Oct 1997 (7.21%), 13 Nov 1997 (5.06%), 09 Dec 1997 (3.03%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1293210.8630219707682.6917324.69-7569.51-14262.821.012.370.0793107.03
atrtrail24.212502.7230131743.338325.4620073.34-5631.07-11020.461.481.130.01416.76
atrtrail34.49452.4830131743.338090.8221064.66-5631.07-11020.461.441.10.0078315.08
atrtrail-14.631121.1830131743.337449.9525708.8-5631.07-11020.461.321.010.0009437.37
atrnil27.83-25715.4130102033.3317611.1328512.42-10091.34-14646.891.750.87-0.013-857.18
atrnil39.72-52881.032962320.6928976.9442768.62-9858.38-14646.892.940.77-0.024-1823.48

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.37. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 70%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.55%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.079, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

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