Study: Buy BANKINDIA when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy BANKINDIA when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy BANKINDIA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
113065273373650.686815.3968231.95-3375.47-8244.852.022.080.041789.76
220474473423157.539087.9974564.21-5708.12-19959.271.592.160.0472804.71
321544173373650.6813434.0859740.26-7822.77-29232.641.721.770.0412951.25
430784373393453.4216283.2964935.06-9623.7-30328.871.691.940.0494217.02
531238373373650.6818719.5971931.7-10562.27-30897.281.771.820.0484279.22
622422773353847.9518892.3576271.79-11500.14-49045.881.641.510.0333071.6
726240073383552.0518303.6776414.09-12375.42-44336.181.481.610.0363594.52
829432473383552.0518439.1886161.51-11610.42-51969.141.591.720.0394031.84
935839673413256.1619125.3592636.07-13304.48-50263.911.441.840.0474909.53
1032465873423157.5318158.8177694.77-14129.42-50507.511.291.740.0434447.37

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is 2.16. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 57.53%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.4%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.047, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
BANKINDIA Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:2.16

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019326 Feb 2019 (2.4%), 20 May 2019 (-0.28%), 16 Aug 2019 (-4.11%)
2018505 Jan 2018 (-1.16%), 22 Jan 2018 (4.96%), 15 Mar 2018 (-3.18%), 23 Jul 2018 (2.14%), 16 Oct 2018 (-4.06%)
2017304 Jan 2017 (2.65%), 21 Jun 2017 (-2.55%), 24 Oct 2017 (37.28%)
2016227 Jan 2016 (0.6%), 22 Feb 2016 (-1.21%)
2015525 Feb 2015 (2.86%), 01 Apr 2015 (0.61%), 19 Jun 2015 (3.77%), 14 Sep 2015 (1.95%), 21 Dec 2015 (-0.25%)
2014322 Jan 2014 (-7.59%), 28 Apr 2014 (-3.98%), 13 May 2014 (4.66%)
2013414 Mar 2013 (1.76%), 02 Apr 2013 (-4.09%), 09 Jul 2013 (0.22%), 12 Aug 2013 (2.07%)
2012405 Jan 2012 (1.73%), 24 May 2012 (4.46%), 21 Aug 2012 (1.28%), 04 Sep 2012 (-2.71%)
2011220 May 2011 (2.54%), 28 Sep 2011 (-0.57%)
2010526 Feb 2010 (3.82%), 30 Mar 2010 (1.06%), 13 Sep 2010 (-0.24%), 02 Dec 2010 (-7.04%), 20 Dec 2010 (1.75%)
2009219 Mar 2009 (1.65%), 14 Oct 2009 (4.31%)
2008318 Feb 2008 (-3.79%), 27 Mar 2008 (-3.67%), 07 Jul 2008 (6.91%)
2007120 Mar 2007 (16.16%)
2006421 Jun 2006 (0.66%), 24 Jul 2006 (6.92%), 14 Sep 2006 (-1.68%), 28 Sep 2006 (-1.1%)
2005105 May 2005 (0.2%)
2004330 Mar 2004 (5.47%), 22 Jun 2004 (-5.92%), 23 Dec 2004 (0.65%)
2003214 Jan 2003 (0.5%), 22 May 2003 (10.17%)
2002412 Apr 2002 (-1.87%), 07 Aug 2002 (-0.52%), 17 Sep 2002 (-2.28%), 25 Nov 2002 (2.32%)
2001403 Jan 2001 (-3.54%), 06 Feb 2001 (15.91%), 11 Apr 2001 (0.91%), 09 Oct 2001 (0.7%)
2000223 Aug 2000 (0.0%), 11 Dec 2000 (4.67%)
1998719 Mar 1998 (-0.54%), 07 Apr 1998 (2.71%), 01 Jul 1998 (-5.78%), 07 Sep 1998 (6.88%), 26 Oct 1998 (-9.98%), 10 Nov 1998 (1.8%), 28 Dec 1998 (13.24%)
1997422 Oct 1997 (-3.43%), 06 Nov 1997 (-0.6%), 01 Dec 1997 (-0.76%), 17 Dec 1997 (3.53%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1220474473423157.539087.9974564.21-5708.12-19959.271.592.160.0472804.71
atrtrail-15.6729285178374147.4416489.5970236.96-7738.15-13139.322.131.920.0473754.5
atrtrail34.8626876279374246.8415945.0835762.69-7647.76-13139.322.081.840.0513402.05
atrnil37.3938472279304937.9728258.1758229.08-9449.45-17322.642.991.830.0534869.9
atrtrail24.0224769986414547.6714329.5827296.71-7551.42-13139.321.91.730.0512880.22
atrnil25.1627645586394745.3518502.8938819.39-9471.45-17322.641.951.620.0463214.59

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.16. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 57.53%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.4%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.047, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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