Study: Buy BANKINDIA when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy BANKINDIA when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy BANKINDIA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
120427.9275271.434542.326776.47-1141.84-2093.663.989.950.192918.27
217978.0874357.145459.618094.12-1286.78-2586.074.245.660.152568.3
35756.473442.866250.4811388.24-3248.76-5183.161.921.440.031822.34
420136.9875271.435760.479245.98-4332.67-5430.741.333.320.122876.71
554647.837701007806.8325414.0900infinf0.217806.83
670633.3376185.7112040.1525957.97-1607.54-1607.547.4944.940.2510090.48
770108.4676185.7111772.5121409.15-526.61-526.6122.36134.130.3110015.49
863796.6275271.4314384.2433127.32-4062.3-4715.513.548.850.169113.8
969794.576185.7114425.3529567.37-16757.6-16757.60.865.160.159970.64
1084192.0676185.7117409.5130407.91-20265-202650.865.150.1612027.44
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 3 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.
BANKINDIA Performance, X=5, Profit Factor:inf

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019105 Mar 2019 (1.87%)
2016122 Jul 2016 (5.08%)
2014122 Mar 2014 (12.71%)
2010206 Apr 2010 (0.17%), 07 Jul 2010 (3.58%)
2009116 Apr 2009 (0.1%)
2008109 Apr 2008 (3.81%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail35.995443.2710737015684.6626821.92-4783.11-6953.183.287.650.179544.33
atrtrail-18.1170004.0496366.6713489.2124643.63-3643.75-5431.313.77.40.157778.23
atrtrail24.383805.3110737014022.0927087.71-4783.11-6953.182.936.840.178380.53
atrnil25.8878059.038627516081.2127087.71-9214.11-11475.051.755.240.179757.38
200trail-13.0923166.15114736.369927.8820271.94-2363.62-3048.944.22.40.0582106.01
200trail31.7319683.86114736.369057.3111945.03-2363.62-3048.943.832.190.0671789.44
atrnil310.6241058.838445020199.526821.92-9934.8-13543.862.032.030.075132.35
200nil31.8217866.97114736.369057.3111945.03-2623.18-3154.523.451.970.061624.27
200trail21.3614556.73115645.455952.137963.36-2533.98-3048.942.351.960.0651323.34
200nil21.3614202.28115645.455952.137963.36-2593.06-3154.522.31.910.0631291.12

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 7.65. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 70%, which is good. Average return per trade is 4.77%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
BANKINDIA Performance, Profit Factor:7.65

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019105 Mar 2019 (13.41%)
2016122 Jul 2016 (1.68%)
2014122 Mar 2014 (10.62%)
2010406 Apr 2010 (0.29%), 09 Apr 2010 (8.7%), 13 Apr 2010 (-3.48%), 07 Jul 2010 (8.48%)
2009216 Apr 2009 (-2.72%), 23 Apr 2009 (-0.98%)
2008109 Apr 2008 (11.71%)



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