Study: Buy BIOCON when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA

home > technical-strategy > biocon > 5

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy BIOCON when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy BIOCON at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-514.7446242252.172383.798046.35-2623.9-8787.290.910.99-0.00089-11.19
236966.4246222447.834393.2917634.56-2486.91-8341.991.771.620.043803.62
335053.3946242252.175052.3719405.1-3918.34-8557.681.291.410.033762.03
427405.15462323505911.3321317.28-4719.8-15538.951.251.250.022595.76
557914.81462323506668.9637702.24-4150.93-19080.771.611.610.0371259.02
672389.2346222447.838767.8648654.39-5020.99-19121.711.751.60.0361573.68
71117994623235010540.1470396.6-5679.31-20554.821.861.860.0442430.41
892644.3246222447.8311164.849787.54-6374.22-22335.961.751.610.042014.01
910705546192741.314342.8574150.14-6128.12-29440.072.341.650.0382327.28
1067460.7546222447.8311545.5159773.37-7772.52-38489.11.491.360.0251466.54
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil28.157070.6842142833.3316080.6635900.82-6002.09-9495.392.681.340.031358.83
200trail-13.44984.9560164426.677955.7948551.7-2779.72-3991.032.861.040.002583.08
200nil33.073724.2558154325.868862.1711223.91-3004.84-3991.032.951.030.003164.21
atrnil313.08-1477.153682822.2222402.9953851.23-6453.61-9543.653.470.99-0.00079-41.03
atrtrail-15.44-11177.8152163630.779957.4153381.62-4736.01-10910.332.10.93-0.0053-214.96
200trail32.72-8414.9161174427.876776.3211223.91-2809.37-3991.032.410.93-0.0074-137.95
atrtrail35.13-15189.3952163630.779706.6848460.45-4736.01-10910.332.050.91-0.0078-292.1
200trail22.31-12896.3362204232.265684.177482.6-3013.8-3991.031.890.9-0.013-208.01
atrtrail24.54-22957.8152163630.779221.1632306.96-4736.01-10910.331.950.87-0.014-441.5
200nil22.35-18453.2862204232.265684.177482.6-3146.11-3991.031.810.86-0.018-297.63

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.34. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 33.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.68%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.03, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
BIOCON Performance, Profit Factor:1.34

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019301 Mar 2019 (-2.31%), 18 Mar 2019 (-2.22%), 10 Apr 2019 (-2.1%)
2018307 Aug 2018 (6.46%), 05 Oct 2018 (-4.72%), 25 Oct 2018 (9.54%)
2017612 May 2017 (-3.75%), 06 Jun 2017 (-3.34%), 07 Jul 2017 (-2.66%), 28 Aug 2017 (-3.99%), 15 Sep 2017 (6.24%), 06 Oct 2017 (5.86%)
2016203 Feb 2016 (-3.48%), 17 Feb 2016 (7.51%)
2015629 May 2015 (-2.5%), 09 Jun 2015 (-2.94%), 16 Jun 2015 (5.57%), 28 Jul 2015 (5.6%), 14 Sep 2015 (-3.04%), 30 Sep 2015 (5.47%)
2014217 Oct 2014 (-3.18%), 02 Dec 2014 (-2.27%)
2013422 May 2013 (-2.42%), 23 May 2013 (-2.51%), 04 Jun 2013 (-2.26%), 28 Jun 2013 (5.14%)
2011627 Jan 2011 (-3.61%), 29 Apr 2011 (-2.87%), 04 May 2011 (-2.93%), 08 Jun 2011 (-2.96%), 18 Jul 2011 (-2.71%), 31 Oct 2011 (-2.62%)
2009222 Apr 2009 (17.95%), 14 May 2009 (16.15%)
2008224 Apr 2008 (-4.75%), 16 Jun 2008 (-3.23%)
2007116 Aug 2007 (-3.27%)
2006402 Feb 2006 (5.93%), 07 Mar 2006 (-2.75%), 14 Mar 2006 (-2.63%), 26 Apr 2006 (9.36%)
2005105 Sep 2005 (5.78%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play