Study: Buy BPCL when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy BPCL when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA and RSI is above 50 and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy BPCL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
110513.591688503881.146303.47-2566.94-6694.561.511.510.037657.1
210561.09169756.255041.613794.79-4973.33-9055.71.011.30.023660.07
34892.621661037.57653.8913794.79-4103.07-7264.551.871.120.0099305.79
45373.261688507585.5314869.71-6913.87-15037.381.11.10.0082335.83
5-8583.281688508537.8519174.06-9610.76-23388.350.890.89-0.01-536.45
6-9342.43167943.759588.0715716.61-8495.43-15359.961.130.88-0.012-583.9
7-20406.72167943.7510408.1519366.14-10362.64-20996.3910.78-0.022-1275.42
8-22141.13167943.7510294.7818270.15-10467.18-18699.080.980.76-0.024-1383.82
9-14377.471661037.514072.1121072.26-9881.01-16241.491.420.85-0.014-898.59
102417.211661037.513563.7920507.32-7896.55-18084.681.721.030.0025151.08

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.51. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 50%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.33%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.037, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Maximum losing trade is greater than maximum winning trade which is not good and there can be a huge drawdown before profitability.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
200trail31.72315331881044.447606.1911927.29-2931.65-3643.82.592.080.0591751.83
200nil21.4421591.841881044.446363.557951.53-2931.65-3643.82.171.740.0521199.55
200trail21.4421591.841881044.446363.557951.53-2931.65-3643.82.171.740.0521199.55
200trail-13.2821440.861881044.446344.6817228.41-2931.65-3643.82.161.730.0421191.16
200nil31.7824885.541861233.339957.0311927.29-2904.72-3643.83.431.710.0461382.53
nilnil-1110513.591688503881.146303.47-2566.94-6694.561.511.510.037657.1
atrtrail33.41-581.231761135.2910375.2120096.82-5712.04-14096.71.820.99-0.00076-34.19
atrtrail22.76-889.211761135.2910323.8813397.88-5712.04-14096.71.810.99-0.0013-52.31
atrtrail-14.59-22288.121761135.296757.416571.4-5712.04-14096.71.180.65-0.038-1311.07
atrnil34.4-31654.47153122017284.9720096.82-6959.11-14096.72.480.62-0.043-2110.3
atrnil23.73-31751.461541126.6711507.1513397.88-7070.91-14096.71.630.59-0.051-2116.76

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.08. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.88%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.059, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
BPCL Performance, Profit Factor:2.08

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019114 Aug 2019 (-1.01%)
2018231 Jan 2018 (-1.36%), 21 Dec 2018 (-1.82%)
2016107 Apr 2016 (5.96%)
2013201 Jul 2013 (-1.44%), 03 Nov 2013 (-1.65%)
2012221 Feb 2012 (4.48%), 13 Dec 2012 (-1.36%)
2011106 May 2011 (-1.22%)
2010126 May 2010 (5.93%)
2008126 Nov 2008 (-1.81%)
2007103 May 2007 (-1.38%)
2006406 Oct 2006 (-1.62%), 09 Oct 2006 (3.64%), 20 Oct 2006 (0.15%), 27 Oct 2006 (4.3%)
1998106 Jan 1998 (0.41%)
1996119 Mar 1996 (5.54%)



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