Study: Sell CADILAHC when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell CADILAHC when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell CADILAHC at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
124299.451210283.332651.876285.71-1109.64-1543.812.3911.950.222024.95
215500.07128466.674038.049591.84-4201.06-8104.980.961.920.061291.67
3196931266506415.0216489.8-3132.85-8568.122.052.050.061641.08
423518127558.335106.9213142.86-2446.09-47182.092.920.091959.83
536674.52127558.336802.5511959.18-2188.67-62503.114.350.133056.21
631538.54127558.336845.1910497.88-3275.56-5504.342.092.930.12628.21
724244.1127558.338039.8114897.96-6406.91-14909.221.251.760.0522020.34
8-5658.091266507592.4813894.25-8535.49-19795.920.890.89-0.011-471.51
9992.48127558.336738.0417522.19-9234.76-18283.510.731.020.001982.71
1014536.89127558.338543.7321767.66-9053.85-21162.660.941.320.0251211.41

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 11.95. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 83.33%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 1.01%, which is not very high, but percentage of profitable trades compensates for it.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
CADILAHC Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:11.9

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017129 Nov 2017 (2.48%)
2016120 Jan 2016 (1.72%)
2013106 Mar 2013 (1.03%)
2011105 Oct 2011 (1.17%)
2008121 Nov 2008 (3.14%)
2007207 May 2007 (0.87%), 13 Sep 2007 (1.3%)
2006126 Jul 2006 (0.04%)
2005207 Apr 2005 (0.91%), 28 Nov 2005 (-0.34%)
2002123 Sep 2002 (0.6%)
2001126 Mar 2001 (-0.77%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1124299.451210283.332651.876285.71-1109.64-1543.812.3911.950.222024.95
atrnil316.316793.56134930.7720313.6724502.07-8273.46-13599.242.461.090.0088522.58
atrnil210.461367.56135838.4613721.8116334.72-8405.19-13599.241.631.020.0022105.2
atrtrail25.46-20267.811331023.089564.5314439.26-4896.14-9419.341.950.59-0.051-1559.06
atrtrail36.77-28073.711331023.086962.5610315.93-4896.14-9419.341.420.43-0.086-2159.52
atrtrail-16.77-28073.711331023.086962.5610315.93-4896.14-9419.341.420.43-0.086-2159.52

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 11.95. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 83.33%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 1.01%, which is not very high, but percentage of profitable trades compensates for it.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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