Study: Sell CEATLTD when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell CEATLTD when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell CEATLTD at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
127106.031912763.163863.578936.38-2750.97-6574.561.42.410.111426.63
227617.771912763.165103.0614094-4802.71-9085.621.061.820.0691453.57
344012.451912763.166671.1221560.77-5148.72-11272.681.32.220.0892316.44
444124.821910952.639030.3727100.53-5130.98-10802.921.761.960.0692322.36
547021.671981142.1111699.932678.24-4234.32-14987.832.762.010.0692474.82
614823.11910952.6310381.8443846.59-9888.37-21661.241.051.170.016780.16
7-18241.441981142.1112655.0340106.85-10861.97-29226.361.170.85-0.018-960.08
8-30827.351991047.3712566.0138631.3-14392.14-42693.410.870.79-0.027-1622.49
9-19479.081912763.1610836.2441162.63-21359.14-62464.180.510.87-0.014-1025.21
10-25272.061911857.8913895.1741620.56-22264.87-60744.990.620.86-0.017-1330.11

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 2.41. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.16%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.71%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
CEATLTD Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:2.41

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019314 Jan 2019 (1.84%), 12 Mar 2019 (-0.3%), 08 Apr 2019 (1.04%)
2018224 Apr 2018 (1.22%), 05 Sep 2018 (-1.95%)
2016222 Jul 2016 (-2.41%), 25 Aug 2016 (-0.8%)
2015201 Jun 2015 (4.41%), 03 Jul 2015 (1.47%)
2013113 Jun 2013 (-3.29%)
2012106 Mar 2012 (1.54%)
2011429 Mar 2011 (0.97%), 01 Aug 2011 (4.47%), 14 Dec 2011 (1.01%), 28 Dec 2011 (2.18%)
2010223 Jun 2010 (-0.87%), 29 Jul 2010 (0.26%)
2009124 Mar 2009 (-0.0%)
2008124 Dec 2008 (2.78%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1127106.031912763.163863.578936.38-2750.97-6574.561.42.410.111426.63
50trail-12.734215.09306242015992.5836889.14-2572.52-3986.36.221.550.0371140.5
atrtrail-15.610732.97205152517909.4434330.58-5254.28-8825.43.411.140.014536.65
atrtrail34.63144.53205152516391.7525172.82-5254.28-8825.43.121.040.0046157.23
atrtrail24.1-4285.43205152514905.7619120.43-5254.28-8825.42.840.95-0.0072-214.27
50trail21.26-9653.663192229.035441.537074.59-2664.88-3986.32.040.84-0.025-311.41
50trail31.67-11271.8130624208411.4310611.88-2572.52-3986.33.270.82-0.025-375.73
atrnil37.53-26191.271741323.5320778.1325172.82-8407.98-14099.982.470.76-0.037-1540.66
50nil21.29-16978.573192229.035441.537074.59-2997.83-3986.31.820.74-0.042-547.7
atrnil25.5-34042.67206143014305.6319120.43-8562.61-14099.981.670.72-0.048-1702.13
50nil31.7-20242.130624208411.4310611.88-2946.28-3986.32.850.71-0.044-674.74

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.41. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 63.16%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.71%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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