Study: Buy CENTURYTEX when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy CENTURYTEX when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy CENTURYTEX at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
114570.94177859248.024613.4319294.99-4104.02-18847.151.121.040.002882.32
245719.22177908750.856292.4427759.3-5983.91-26832.331.051.090.0065258.3
355843.33177898850.288161.7737686.57-7619.93-24898.291.071.080.0061315.5
4197502177928551.9810483.1556716.42-9022.92-39411.411.161.260.0171115.83
5304322177839446.8914136.5381818.18-9244.79-35350.011.531.350.0211719.33
6266750177849347.4615041.8699626.87-10717.91-33906.071.41.270.0161507.06
7370098177918651.4115589.71123881-12192.63-42031.521.281.350.0212090.95
8511067177908750.8518318.51150000-13075.86-50666.671.41.450.0242887.38
9621964177898850.2820390.2177985-13554.13-62456.141.51.520.0283513.92
10769139177888949.7223175.22208209-14272.81-53052.631.621.610.0324345.42
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail-15.787864641988111740.9119479.78189577-6764.09-20043.822.881.990.0363972.04
atrnil25.816490331958411143.0819846.2565158.56-9171.64-20043.822.161.640.0433328.37
atrtrail35.034769011998211741.2115483.2488478.78-6775.42-20043.822.291.60.0342396.49
atrtrail24.374358462008311741.514917.1665158.56-6857.09-20043.822.181.540.0332179.23
atrnil38.955513281846012432.6128778.8388478.78-9479.05-32579.283.041.470.0312996.35

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.99. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 40.91%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.99%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.036, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
CENTURYTEX Performance, Profit Factor:1.99

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019620 Feb 2019 (12.5%), 20 May 2019 (3.65%), 03 Jul 2019 (-2.87%), 17 Jul 2019 (-3.03%), 08 Aug 2019 (-1.23%), 05 Sep 2019 (6.05%)
2018628 Feb 2018 (-3.33%), 08 Jun 2018 (-4.2%), 16 Oct 2018 (-4.62%), 17 Oct 2018 (-5.1%), 25 Oct 2018 (14.95%), 17 Dec 2018 (-2.09%)
2017825 Jan 2017 (-0.78%), 15 Mar 2017 (-2.43%), 11 May 2017 (-2.58%), 16 Jun 2017 (-1.02%), 01 Sep 2017 (2.86%), 10 Oct 2017 (1.66%), 27 Nov 2017 (-2.27%), 11 Dec 2017 (-1.33%)
2016922 Feb 2016 (-4.86%), 02 Mar 2016 (14.86%), 01 Jun 2016 (-1.51%), 08 Jun 2016 (-2.76%), 29 Jun 2016 (3.79%), 25 Jul 2016 (-2.71%), 29 Aug 2016 (15.73%), 02 Nov 2016 (-3.28%), 30 Nov 2016 (-5.15%)
2015728 Feb 2015 (2.59%), 27 Mar 2015 (14.26%), 22 May 2015 (-4.44%), 16 Jun 2015 (0.88%), 14 Sep 2015 (-2.62%), 17 Nov 2015 (0.23%), 18 Dec 2015 (4.5%)
2014822 Jan 2014 (-3.9%), 20 Feb 2014 (6.99%), 07 May 2014 (29.34%), 01 Jul 2014 (-1.46%), 22 Jul 2014 (-2.49%), 01 Sep 2014 (1.61%), 22 Oct 2014 (7.58%), 26 Dec 2014 (0.89%)
20131404 Jan 2013 (-2.49%), 20 Feb 2013 (-2.95%), 11 Mar 2013 (-3.88%), 01 Apr 2013 (-2.46%), 18 Jun 2013 (-1.16%), 15 Jul 2013 (-4.33%), 16 Jul 2013 (-4.48%), 22 Jul 2013 (-3.16%), 13 Aug 2013 (-4.38%), 04 Oct 2013 (-0.52%), 21 Oct 2013 (-1.49%), 05 Nov 2013 (-2.09%), 24 Dec 2013 (-3.7%), 26 Dec 2013 (3.27%)
2012621 Mar 2012 (-5.24%), 22 Mar 2012 (3.29%), 25 May 2012 (-3.87%), 08 Aug 2012 (4.16%), 08 Sep 2012 (5.03%), 29 Nov 2012 (2.16%)
2011414 Feb 2011 (0.46%), 27 May 2011 (0.81%), 07 Dec 2011 (-4.37%), 30 Dec 2011 (-3.3%)
2010817 Feb 2010 (-4.53%), 05 Apr 2010 (1.65%), 27 Apr 2010 (-3.07%), 22 Jul 2010 (-2.74%), 09 Aug 2010 (6.59%), 07 Sep 2010 (-1.7%), 05 Oct 2010 (-0.04%), 04 Nov 2010 (-0.61%)
2009930 Jan 2009 (1.34%), 26 Feb 2009 (-6.0%), 04 May 2009 (-2.46%), 17 Jul 2009 (5.38%), 27 Aug 2009 (-2.31%), 16 Oct 2009 (-0.96%), 12 Nov 2009 (-3.06%), 02 Dec 2009 (-1.96%), 24 Dec 2009 (8.99%)
2008918 Feb 2008 (-5.02%), 11 Mar 2008 (-8.53%), 25 Mar 2008 (13.16%), 25 Jun 2008 (-7.26%), 08 Jul 2008 (-3.92%), 18 Jul 2008 (1.88%), 04 Sep 2008 (-5.37%), 29 Oct 2008 (19.99%), 03 Dec 2008 (31.26%)
2007712 Jan 2007 (-1.83%), 12 Mar 2007 (-7.91%), 16 May 2007 (-1.44%), 19 Jun 2007 (11.64%), 24 Aug 2007 (4.41%), 13 Nov 2007 (-4.24%), 28 Dec 2007 (2.0%)
20061017 Jan 2006 (-0.52%), 07 Feb 2006 (-4.23%), 27 Feb 2006 (-3.5%), 28 Feb 2006 (19.13%), 31 Mar 2006 (7.87%), 19 Jun 2006 (-4.87%), 27 Jul 2006 (10.4%), 04 Sep 2006 (3.65%), 30 Oct 2006 (-1.95%), 27 Dec 2006 (-0.14%)
20051403 Jan 2005 (-3.78%), 31 Jan 2005 (23.74%), 25 Feb 2005 (-4.74%), 28 Feb 2005 (2.07%), 04 Apr 2005 (-4.45%), 21 Apr 2005 (-1.81%), 04 Jun 2005 (-1.46%), 21 Jun 2005 (-3.2%), 22 Jun 2005 (-0.21%), 30 Jun 2005 (1.3%), 04 Aug 2005 (-4.1%), 09 Sep 2005 (5.78%), 30 Sep 2005 (0.19%), 08 Nov 2005 (-0.66%)
2004911 Feb 2004 (-2.93%), 08 Mar 2004 (-4.37%), 31 Mar 2004 (24.15%), 30 Jun 2004 (-3.89%), 09 Aug 2004 (-4.58%), 07 Oct 2004 (-3.99%), 09 Nov 2004 (-2.29%), 16 Dec 2004 (-3.48%), 21 Dec 2004 (-0.83%)
2003824 Feb 2003 (0.03%), 03 Apr 2003 (3.03%), 20 Jun 2003 (-4.75%), 23 Jun 2003 (11.71%), 28 Jul 2003 (16.31%), 01 Oct 2003 (3.88%), 11 Nov 2003 (6.25%), 08 Dec 2003 (14.43%)
20021121 Jan 2002 (-6.29%), 13 Feb 2002 (2.52%), 01 Apr 2002 (-4.57%), 02 Apr 2002 (3.25%), 02 May 2002 (7.69%), 04 Jun 2002 (49.39%), 05 Jul 2002 (-6.11%), 21 Aug 2002 (-7.15%), 07 Oct 2002 (-4.95%), 25 Oct 2002 (21.0%), 30 Dec 2002 (3.74%)
2001602 Jan 2001 (-2.72%), 24 Jan 2001 (-2.51%), 29 Mar 2001 (-10.02%), 21 May 2001 (6.07%), 28 Sep 2001 (6.01%), 08 Nov 2001 (66.59%)
2000525 May 2000 (-5.9%), 03 Jul 2000 (-2.51%), 16 Aug 2000 (-0.58%), 19 Oct 2000 (3.88%), 07 Dec 2000 (-2.39%)
19991023 Feb 1999 (0.0%), 18 Mar 1999 (-6.92%), 19 Mar 1999 (7.49%), 16 Apr 1999 (-6.37%), 05 May 1999 (94.79%), 09 Jun 1999 (-6.7%), 28 Jun 1999 (-5.9%), 17 Aug 1999 (-6.49%), 20 Oct 1999 (1.74%), 25 Nov 1999 (8.23%)
1998619 Mar 1998 (15.14%), 06 Apr 1998 (12.17%), 25 Jun 1998 (-5.53%), 07 Sep 1998 (-4.25%), 10 Nov 1998 (-4.73%), 14 Dec 1998 (-0.19%)
1997701 Mar 1997 (3.92%), 25 Apr 1997 (13.86%), 02 Jun 1997 (3.78%), 04 Aug 1997 (-0.48%), 20 Oct 1997 (-3.05%), 21 Oct 1997 (-2.48%), 17 Dec 1997 (25.99%)
1996505 Jun 1996 (-1.27%), 25 Jul 1996 (-3.08%), 16 Aug 1996 (-2.95%), 19 Aug 1996 (-3.22%), 22 Aug 1996 (1.95%)
1995629 Mar 1995 (0.27%), 19 May 1995 (-2.36%), 19 Sep 1995 (1.37%), 23 Oct 1995 (-2.41%), 24 Oct 1995 (1.73%), 29 Nov 1995 (0.04%)



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