Study: Buy CHOLAFIN when ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

home > technical-strategy > cholafin > 55

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy CHOLAFIN when ADX is Trending and there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy CHOLAFIN at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-26052.28113827.272270.83149-4108.08-9039.550.550.21-0.13-2368.39
2-38135.34112918.182222.253033.79-4731.09-15496.370.470.1-0.12-3466.85
3-40157.6113827.272894.63640.63-6105.17-160000.470.18-0.12-3650.69
4-38032.36114736.364987.4417381.09-8283.16-28470.590.60.34-0.069-3457.49
51423.55114736.3612146.2141926.01-6737.32-25647.061.81.030.0018129.41
615931.22114736.3615995.5456136.23-6864.42-26117.652.331.330.0161448.29
71945.15114736.3615008.6751849.68-8298.5-30117.651.811.030.002176.83
8-6939.5115645.4511238.1642806.81-10521.71-30588.241.070.89-0.0077-630.86
9-6360.67116554.5512203.6447210.8-15916.5-31294.120.770.92-0.006-578.24
10-3847.01116554.5514149.1760129.18-17748.41-34823.530.80.96-0.0031-349.73
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrtrail-16.1424388.34145935.7118220.4445519.03-7412.65-13767.782.461.370.0241742.02
atrtrail35.7110127.58145935.7115368.2925194.01-7412.65-13767.782.071.150.013723.4
atrtrail24.298390.88145935.7115020.9516796-7412.65-13767.782.031.130.011599.35
atrnil24.293026.15145935.7115020.9516796-8008.73-13767.781.881.040.004216.15
atrnil36.93-17383.341431121.4323061.925194.01-7869.91-13767.782.930.8-0.02-1241.67

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.37. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 35.71%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.87%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.024, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
CHOLAFIN Performance, Profit Factor:1.37

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019115 Apr 2019 (-2.12%)
2017131 May 2017 (5.13%)
2014110 Jan 2014 (-2.77%)
2012114 Mar 2012 (4.87%)
2009128 Jul 2009 (-6.88%)
2007102 Jul 2007 (22.76%)
2004201 Nov 2004 (-3.6%), 02 Nov 2004 (8.66%)
2000221 Dec 2000 (-3.28%), 22 Dec 2000 (-3.57%)
1999120 Jul 1999 (-4.27%)
1998203 Sep 1998 (-3.11%), 04 Sep 1998 (4.14%)
1997119 Sep 1997 (-3.75%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play