Study: Sell CIPLA when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and ADX is Trending

home > technical-strategy > cipla > 19

In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell CIPLA when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell CIPLA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
1-14766.98157846.671732.563029.67-3361.87-8821.660.520.45-0.061-984.47
2-10087.13157846.673347.427315.03-4189.88-11480.320.80.7-0.029-672.48
3-10330.521596603072.19357.21-6329.91-14440.430.490.73-0.025-688.7
4-14394.41157846.674662.419307-5878.91-15247.40.790.69-0.029-959.63
514313.44158753.337555.915587.17-6590.54-10384.871.151.310.024954.23
616039.93158753.337424.3420811.21-6193.54-11407.291.21.370.0251069.33
721065.9157846.678337.3920598.85-4661.98-11567.951.791.560.0361404.39
826132.23158753.337716.2715374.81-5085.42-11290.441.521.730.0491742.15
926158.86158753.338753.1217498.41-6266.59-13218.431.41.60.0411743.92
1029006.52158753.339653.3220344.02-6888.58-14956.551.41.60.0421933.77
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
50nil22.47-1764.661961331.586446.647259.13-3111.12-3887.532.070.96-0.0042-92.88
50nil33.61-4610.931841422.229697.2410888.69-3099.99-3887.533.130.89-0.0097-256.16
atrnil27.67-9622.951541126.6712950.4819148.76-5584.08-9722.962.320.84-0.015-641.53
50trail22.37-14204.371941521.056377.56994.91-2647.62-3887.532.410.64-0.04-747.6
atrtrail24.81-16323.971651131.255617.6310738.78-4037.47-6025.051.390.63-0.04-1020.25
50trail33.06-17354.41831516.677453.329207.37-2647.62-3887.532.820.56-0.05-964.13
atrnil39.86-37040.361421214.2916886.3617664.54-5901.09-9722.962.860.48-0.066-2645.74
50trail-13.28-22189.211831516.675841.7210612.32-2647.62-3887.532.210.44-0.07-1232.73
atrtrail35.33-28767.11551033.333105.237430.62-4429.32-6025.050.70.35-0.098-1917.81
atrtrail-15.33-28767.11551033.333105.237430.62-4429.32-6025.050.70.35-0.098-1917.81

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.96. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 31.58%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.046%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
CIPLA Performance, Profit Factor:0.956

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017312 Jun 2017 (3.07%), 15 Jun 2017 (3.45%), 20 Jun 2017 (2.96%)
2016218 Apr 2016 (-1.63%), 30 Jun 2016 (-1.13%)
2013220 Dec 2013 (-1.51%), 24 Dec 2013 (-1.75%)
2011429 Mar 2011 (-1.05%), 13 May 2011 (-1.46%), 20 Jun 2011 (-1.29%), 23 Jun 2011 (-1.78%)
2007223 Mar 2007 (-1.94%), 20 Apr 2007 (-1.5%)
2005102 Feb 2005 (3.5%)
2003130 May 2003 (-1.56%)
2002214 Nov 2002 (-1.71%), 03 Dec 2002 (3.63%)
1998121 Jan 1998 (2.73%)
1997130 Dec 1997 (-1.9%)



View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

Get Clearnifty's Android App.

Get clearnifty on Google Play
Get clearnifty on Google Play