Study: Buy CIPLA when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy CIPLA when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy CIPLA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
181789.5592484452.173927.2713339.69-2425.44-9098.241.621.770.042889.02
213019692543858.75454.5719657.53-4325.02-30683.31.261.790.0421415.18
318947792573561.966230.3427336.72-4732.93-26922.361.322.140.0562059.53
418858991543759.347373.0831673.76-5663.73-31068.081.31.90.0472072.4
522960591543759.348661.4531951.51-6435.5-26885.121.351.960.052523.13
610367791523957.1410116.7646930-10830.62-1282780.931.250.0131139.31
714817291504154.9512118.771529.14-11164.94-1306771.091.320.0161628.27
814402491504154.9512058.0762684.76-11192.18-1347211.081.310.0161582.68
977554.3191444748.3513733.0357215.49-11206.36-1327871.231.150.0082852.25
1099496.8391444748.3513695.1463976.16-10704.02-1381631.281.20.011093.37

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 3 trading days. Profit factor is 2.14. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 61.96%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.03%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.056, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
CIPLA Performance, X=3, Profit Factor:2.14

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019330 Jan 2019 (0.75%), 30 Aug 2019 (1.26%), 11 Oct 2019 (1.23%)
2018302 Apr 2018 (-2.76%), 17 Aug 2018 (1.71%), 07 Sep 2018 (-1.25%)
2017303 Feb 2017 (-0.77%), 10 May 2017 (1.42%), 05 Jun 2017 (2.87%)
2016525 Feb 2016 (-0.51%), 13 Apr 2016 (3.93%), 09 Jun 2016 (0.75%), 19 Sep 2016 (1.89%), 22 Nov 2016 (2.64%)
2015119 Jun 2015 (2.49%)
2014405 Mar 2014 (-2.62%), 31 Jul 2014 (-3.5%), 18 Aug 2014 (4.63%), 27 Oct 2014 (3.58%)
2013409 Jan 2013 (-2.82%), 05 Mar 2013 (2.48%), 04 Dec 2013 (-1.19%), 18 Dec 2013 (3.16%)
2012615 Mar 2012 (-0.8%), 29 Mar 2012 (4.11%), 31 Jul 2012 (3.34%), 03 Oct 2012 (-3.58%), 01 Nov 2012 (5.74%), 20 Dec 2012 (-1.08%)
2011225 Feb 2011 (1.38%), 06 Sep 2011 (4.09%)
2010216 Feb 2010 (-1.97%), 24 Aug 2010 (-4.36%)
2009226 Mar 2009 (5.54%), 24 Apr 2009 (0.19%)
2008304 Feb 2008 (-2.38%), 21 Feb 2008 (6.81%), 04 Nov 2008 (0.66%)
2007520 Mar 2007 (4.53%), 23 May 2007 (0.19%), 13 Aug 2007 (-3.54%), 04 Sep 2007 (0.36%), 26 Sep 2007 (10.52%)
2006602 Feb 2006 (4.34%), 23 Mar 2006 (4.04%), 24 Apr 2006 (-0.96%), 21 Jun 2006 (3.0%), 01 Sep 2006 (1.4%), 21 Dec 2006 (5.0%)
2005731 Jan 2005 (-0.21%), 22 Jun 2005 (-0.56%), 13 Jul 2005 (3.42%), 17 Aug 2005 (1.97%), 06 Sep 2005 (-0.4%), 29 Sep 2005 (0.01%), 09 Nov 2005 (1.67%)
2004316 Feb 2004 (-1.33%), 01 Jun 2004 (-4.09%), 26 Aug 2004 (-1.77%)
2003521 Feb 2003 (-2.91%), 19 Mar 2003 (0.34%), 14 May 2003 (1.02%), 06 Oct 2003 (1.72%), 30 Oct 2003 (-1.98%)
2002302 Jul 2002 (0.94%), 03 Oct 2002 (0.81%), 07 Nov 2002 (0.92%)
2001222 Mar 2001 (0.49%), 18 Apr 2001 (8.81%)
2000319 May 2000 (-13.46%), 28 Nov 2000 (-3.54%), 13 Dec 2000 (-5.95%)
1999603 Mar 1999 (0.15%), 08 Apr 1999 (-0.78%), 04 Aug 1999 (10.63%), 14 Sep 1999 (-0.7%), 11 Oct 1999 (-0.51%), 11 Nov 1999 (4.45%)
1998121 May 1998 (-0.97%)
1997409 Apr 1997 (1.25%), 09 Sep 1997 (0.72%), 27 Nov 1997 (-2.76%), 19 Dec 1997 (4.15%)
1996422 Mar 1996 (2.17%), 16 Apr 1996 (4.82%), 05 Jun 1996 (5.66%), 11 Oct 1996 (-0.56%)
1995529 Mar 1995 (2.17%), 22 May 1995 (-1.87%), 21 Jun 1995 (-4.37%), 13 Jul 1995 (5.61%), 29 Nov 1995 (13.67%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1318947792573561.966230.3427336.72-4732.93-26922.361.322.140.0562059.53
atrnil313.4745326293365738.7124269.54127319-7376.16-33334.473.292.080.054873.79
atrnil210.3427212896435344.7915548.2484879.55-7480.11-33334.472.081.690.042834.67
atrtrail-15.9518310498435543.8811227.2160512.35-5448.47-33320.922.061.610.0291868.41
atrtrail35.1117860210045554510597.3931656.42-5423.28-33320.921.951.60.0341786.02
atrtrail24.5159725103475645.6310057.9438453.56-5589.25-33320.921.81.510.0311550.73

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.14. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 61.96%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.03%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.056, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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