Study: Buy DRREDDY when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy DRREDDY when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy DRREDDY at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
11342172091149554.553871.219508.93-3232.63-15869.071.21.440.026642.18
294034.412091159455.024842.4237319.61-4923.87-38068.270.981.20.013449.93
393248.682091119853.116110.3231535.72-5969.36-36895.841.021.160.01446.17
41245842091139654.077118.443087.87-7081.2-38476.181.011.180.012596.1
52772102091189156.468191.6855242.27-7575.91-46339.81.081.40.0231326.36
62431982091248559.338276.6942485.63-9213.08-44985.760.91.310.021163.62
72849342091238658.858886.4849687.05-9396.55-43622.480.951.350.0231363.32
83561032091208957.429516.1955464.61-8829.66-39815.711.081.450.0271703.84
93931052091199056.9410314.254646.12-9269.84-41237.331.111.470.0271880.88
104443642091288161.2410195.8657246.03-10626.01-44667.430.961.520.0292126.14
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 3 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil26.149810623810813045.3813238.0832318.14-7166.21-17891.121.851.530.0392092.88
atrnil39.825061722147114333.1821317.9548477.22-7044.77-17891.123.031.50.0332365.29
atrtrail-15.5820031123810213642.869356.8156873.06-5544.73-17891.121.691.270.016841.64
atrtrail24.2118059424510613943.278912.6832318.14-5497.49-17891.121.621.240.018737.12
atrtrail35.1113270523810213642.868694.0128998.89-5544.73-17891.121.571.180.013557.58

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.53. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 45.38%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.05%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.039, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
DRREDDY Performance, Profit Factor:1.53

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019517 Jan 2019 (3.83%), 01 Mar 2019 (7.54%), 26 Jun 2019 (5.47%), 23 Aug 2019 (5.29%), 18 Oct 2019 (4.4%)
2018821 Feb 2018 (-3.25%), 26 Feb 2018 (-3.38%), 02 Apr 2018 (-2.66%), 28 May 2018 (-2.69%), 16 Oct 2018 (-3.4%), 30 Oct 2018 (-3.49%), 31 Oct 2018 (-3.79%), 16 Nov 2018 (6.01%)
2017802 Jan 2017 (3.67%), 27 Jan 2017 (3.52%), 31 Mar 2017 (3.52%), 03 Apr 2017 (-1.9%), 05 Jun 2017 (5.13%), 07 Jul 2017 (-2.02%), 24 Aug 2017 (-3.65%), 14 Dec 2017 (4.85%)
20161320 Jan 2016 (-2.53%), 25 Jan 2016 (5.55%), 18 Feb 2016 (-3.38%), 13 Apr 2016 (-2.39%), 18 Apr 2016 (-2.42%), 17 May 2016 (4.8%), 24 Jun 2016 (3.74%), 18 Aug 2016 (4.28%), 24 Oct 2016 (3.21%), 25 Oct 2016 (3.51%), 10 Nov 2016 (-2.78%), 01 Dec 2016 (-2.42%), 08 Dec 2016 (-2.35%)
20151112 Jan 2015 (4.78%), 12 Feb 2015 (-2.61%), 24 Mar 2015 (-2.42%), 01 Apr 2015 (4.99%), 13 May 2015 (-2.9%), 22 Jun 2015 (4.18%), 31 Jul 2015 (4.87%), 28 Sep 2015 (-2.54%), 29 Sep 2015 (5.45%), 03 Nov 2015 (-2.34%), 03 Dec 2015 (-3.73%)
2014909 Jan 2014 (3.6%), 20 Feb 2014 (4.0%), 25 Apr 2014 (4.26%), 30 May 2014 (-2.7%), 25 Jul 2014 (4.33%), 20 Aug 2014 (-1.92%), 18 Sep 2014 (3.51%), 28 Oct 2014 (-2.52%), 29 Oct 2014 (5.32%)
20131104 Jan 2013 (3.29%), 25 Jan 2013 (-1.66%), 07 Mar 2013 (-2.15%), 01 Apr 2013 (4.46%), 29 May 2013 (-2.39%), 01 Jul 2013 (-2.42%), 29 Aug 2013 (6.64%), 30 Oct 2013 (-2.31%), 31 Oct 2013 (-2.54%), 02 Dec 2013 (-2.09%), 19 Dec 2013 (3.75%)
20121131 Jan 2012 (-2.5%), 29 Feb 2012 (4.3%), 29 Mar 2012 (3.66%), 30 Mar 2012 (-1.95%), 16 Apr 2012 (-2.32%), 25 May 2012 (-2.36%), 22 Jun 2012 (4.59%), 03 Aug 2012 (-2.14%), 07 Sep 2012 (3.44%), 05 Oct 2012 (5.8%), 29 Nov 2012 (4.17%)
2011920 Jan 2011 (-2.74%), 18 Feb 2011 (-3.42%), 01 Jun 2011 (-2.54%), 29 Jun 2011 (-2.33%), 30 Jun 2011 (4.77%), 30 Aug 2011 (-3.19%), 10 Oct 2011 (4.79%), 13 Dec 2011 (-2.94%), 23 Dec 2011 (5.34%)
2010612 Jan 2010 (-3.36%), 22 Feb 2010 (6.31%), 28 Apr 2010 (-3.04%), 13 May 2010 (7.03%), 16 Aug 2010 (-2.86%), 06 Oct 2010 (4.82%)
20091006 Jan 2009 (-4.52%), 06 Feb 2009 (-4.53%), 13 Mar 2009 (10.57%), 20 May 2009 (11.39%), 09 Jun 2009 (-5.01%), 30 Jul 2009 (-4.13%), 26 Aug 2009 (-3.06%), 10 Sep 2009 (6.43%), 29 Oct 2009 (7.87%), 17 Dec 2009 (6.37%)
20081314 Feb 2008 (-6.1%), 24 Mar 2008 (12.42%), 16 Apr 2008 (10.29%), 14 May 2008 (-3.9%), 15 May 2008 (-4.14%), 22 May 2008 (8.54%), 16 Jun 2008 (-4.42%), 18 Jul 2008 (-4.12%), 08 Aug 2008 (-4.85%), 01 Oct 2008 (-5.87%), 20 Oct 2008 (-8.94%), 10 Nov 2008 (-8.44%), 22 Dec 2008 (-5.94%)
2007704 Jun 2007 (-2.83%), 18 Jun 2007 (5.96%), 23 Aug 2007 (5.18%), 01 Oct 2007 (-2.51%), 03 Oct 2007 (-2.62%), 24 Oct 2007 (-3.12%), 16 Nov 2007 (-2.91%)
2006817 Feb 2006 (7.47%), 22 Mar 2006 (-3.21%), 23 Mar 2006 (-3.46%), 02 May 2006 (-4.14%), 19 Jun 2006 (13.83%), 28 Aug 2006 (11.23%), 05 Dec 2006 (-2.8%), 06 Dec 2006 (6.11%)
20051004 Feb 2005 (-3.81%), 06 May 2005 (-3.79%), 09 May 2005 (8.74%), 15 Jun 2005 (-2.64%), 29 Jun 2005 (4.65%), 26 Jul 2005 (4.94%), 14 Sep 2005 (-2.75%), 27 Sep 2005 (5.43%), 08 Nov 2005 (8.74%), 20 Dec 2005 (5.84%)
20041028 Jan 2004 (-3.63%), 26 Feb 2004 (-3.89%), 19 Mar 2004 (-4.36%), 18 May 2004 (-5.35%), 11 Jun 2004 (-4.38%), 30 Jun 2004 (-4.13%), 01 Sep 2004 (6.1%), 04 Oct 2004 (-2.62%), 03 Nov 2004 (5.61%), 03 Dec 2004 (4.61%)
2003908 Jan 2003 (4.5%), 05 Mar 2003 (-2.71%), 21 Mar 2003 (5.9%), 29 May 2003 (6.94%), 21 Aug 2003 (-3.55%), 07 Oct 2003 (8.46%), 31 Oct 2003 (9.33%), 03 Nov 2003 (9.69%), 02 Dec 2003 (8.42%)
20021113 Feb 2002 (-3.39%), 14 Feb 2002 (7.87%), 14 Mar 2002 (-3.77%), 17 May 2002 (-2.71%), 04 Jun 2002 (-3.31%), 04 Jul 2002 (-2.57%), 06 Aug 2002 (-3.56%), 20 Aug 2002 (-3.33%), 26 Sep 2002 (-3.31%), 11 Oct 2002 (-2.81%), 07 Nov 2002 (8.29%)
20011310 Jan 2001 (6.63%), 12 Feb 2001 (-2.76%), 15 Feb 2001 (-2.76%), 22 Feb 2001 (5.33%), 19 Apr 2001 (13.75%), 26 Jun 2001 (-3.52%), 27 Jun 2001 (-4.0%), 01 Aug 2001 (-5.02%), 29 Aug 2001 (-4.31%), 06 Sep 2001 (-4.17%), 10 Oct 2001 (8.34%), 12 Nov 2001 (-4.67%), 31 Dec 2001 (7.79%)
20001303 Jan 2000 (11.08%), 18 Feb 2000 (-5.31%), 15 Mar 2000 (-7.4%), 16 Mar 2000 (16.16%), 11 Apr 2000 (-8.33%), 09 May 2000 (-8.95%), 20 Jun 2000 (-5.33%), 21 Jun 2000 (-6.27%), 29 Jun 2000 (-5.61%), 04 Aug 2000 (12.34%), 06 Oct 2000 (-4.1%), 06 Nov 2000 (7.32%), 11 Dec 2000 (-3.44%)
19991005 Feb 1999 (-4.49%), 08 Feb 1999 (9.67%), 01 Mar 1999 (8.39%), 23 Apr 1999 (-6.1%), 26 Apr 1999 (12.54%), 22 Jun 1999 (8.35%), 05 Aug 1999 (8.19%), 22 Sep 1999 (8.7%), 11 Nov 1999 (-7.51%), 07 Dec 1999 (11.46%)
19981016 Jan 1998 (-2.83%), 09 Feb 1998 (-2.46%), 26 Feb 1998 (4.61%), 27 Feb 1998 (-2.44%), 18 Mar 1998 (5.66%), 19 Mar 1998 (5.93%), 20 Apr 1998 (8.25%), 25 Jun 1998 (13.3%), 15 Sep 1998 (-5.29%), 12 Nov 1998 (-4.03%)
1997814 Feb 1997 (-3.13%), 28 Feb 1997 (7.02%), 17 Apr 1997 (7.71%), 16 May 1997 (-3.41%), 03 Jun 1997 (-3.06%), 04 Jul 1997 (6.17%), 26 Sep 1997 (6.12%), 17 Dec 1997 (6.35%)
19961023 Jan 1996 (4.58%), 18 Apr 1996 (3.89%), 19 Apr 1996 (-2.1%), 04 Jun 1996 (-2.14%), 05 Jul 1996 (-2.86%), 08 Aug 1996 (-3.66%), 09 Aug 1996 (-4.02%), 27 Aug 1996 (7.34%), 15 Oct 1996 (8.83%), 17 Dec 1996 (-4.01%)
1995522 Mar 1995 (-2.94%), 23 Mar 1995 (-3.05%), 17 May 1995 (-2.93%), 13 Jul 1995 (5.96%), 18 Sep 1995 (4.6%)



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