Study: Sell FEDERALBNK when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and RSI is below 50

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell FEDERALBNK when below 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and below 50 SMA and RSI is below 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell FEDERALBNK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
135785.952314960.874492.2810522.74-3011.77-5779.151.492.320.071555.91
265225.742318578.264997.1517777.78-4944.61-10283.321.013.640.12835.9
375427.322316769.576413.218002.47-3883.41-9443.861.653.770.13279.45
41019042317673.91884025579.2-8062.61-26246.991.13.110.0864430.63
51252842317673.9111388.9935035.46-11388.19-38630.8912.830.0825447.12
61119692315865.2211644.0830212.77-7836.48-38837.291.492.790.0754868.23
71068582315865.2212475.6129929.08-10034.47-41486.071.242.330.0664646.02
81442822215768.1815398.9239243.5-12385.93-38149.291.242.660.0796558.29
974384.362213959.0916019.0939810.87-14873.76-40897.911.081.560.0373381.11
101079402213959.0918767.7944349.88-15115.75-38868.391.241.790.054906.34

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 3 trading days. Profit factor is 3.77. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 69.57%, which is good. Average return per trade is 1.64%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
FEDERALBNK Performance, X=3, Profit Factor:3.77

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019201 Oct 2019 (3.25%), 05 Nov 2019 (2.67%)
2016115 Mar 2016 (-4.72%)
2015208 Jun 2015 (0.6%), 31 Dec 2015 (0.45%)
2013104 Jun 2013 (1.84%)
2011311 Mar 2011 (-0.77%), 15 Nov 2011 (0.6%), 13 Dec 2011 (0.64%)
2009121 Jan 2009 (4.62%)
2008209 May 2008 (2.42%), 01 Oct 2008 (7.71%)
2005324 Mar 2005 (-2.15%), 22 Apr 2005 (0.84%), 27 Jun 2005 (2.8%)
2004128 Oct 2004 (-4.35%)
2002104 Jan 2002 (2.77%)
1999227 Jan 1999 (9.0%), 18 Mar 1999 (7.26%)
1998228 Jan 1998 (-0.92%), 13 Aug 1998 (3.86%)
1996224 May 1996 (-0.55%), 07 Jun 1996 (-0.14%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1375427.322316769.576413.218002.47-3883.41-9443.861.653.770.13279.45
atrtrail37.2217112927141351.8516823.2740626.84-4953.62-9370.953.43.660.0986338.1
atrnil27.131729102314960.8717541.4227084.56-8074.45-10847.42.173.380.127517.82
atrtrail25.5214942427141351.8515272.9227084.56-4953.62-9370.953.083.320.15534.22
atrtrail-1814388927141351.8514877.6136353.13-4953.62-9370.9533.230.0915329.24
atrnil310.1418108921101147.6226981.9240626.84-8066.4-10847.43.343.040.0988623.28
50trail-12.8553894.333392427.2712817.5727894.09-2560.99-3823.2251.880.041633.16
50trail31.661501.4435102528.576866.4610202.22-2686.53-3823.222.561.020.001942.9
50trail21.49-687.0835112431.435865.797143.2-2717.12-3823.222.160.99-0.001-19.63
50nil31.67-6349.163382524.248562.6710202.22-2994.02-3823.222.860.92-0.008-192.4
50nil21.59-7398.1234112332.355688.357143.2-3042.17-3823.221.870.89-0.011-217.59

In the table above, row 3 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.38. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 60.87%, which is good. Average return per trade is 3.76%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
FEDERALBNK Performance, Profit Factor:3.38

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019101 Oct 2019 (9.88%)
2016215 Mar 2016 (-4.13%), 29 Mar 2016 (8.06%)
2015208 Jun 2015 (-3.14%), 31 Dec 2015 (5.0%)
2013104 Jun 2013 (6.03%)
2011311 Mar 2011 (-4.11%), 15 Nov 2011 (7.13%), 13 Dec 2011 (8.3%)
2009121 Jan 2009 (13.06%)
2008209 May 2008 (9.7%), 01 Oct 2008 (9.91%)
2005324 Mar 2005 (-4.89%), 22 Apr 2005 (-5.42%), 27 Jun 2005 (-3.62%)
2004128 Oct 2004 (-3.38%)
2002104 Jan 2002 (-4.18%)
1999227 Jan 1999 (10.22%), 18 Mar 1999 (13.54%)
1998228 Jan 1998 (8.69%), 13 Aug 1998 (7.06%)
1996224 May 1996 (6.22%), 29 May 1996 (-3.46%)



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