Study: Sell GLENMARK when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell GLENMARK when there is Dead Cross (50 DMA < 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell GLENMARK at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
113557.451266505656.123244.13-3396.52-6468.211.671.670.0341129.79
241243.53125741.6713120.4758590.93-3479.83-6486.73.772.690.0463436.96
375659.99124833.3325261.6886859.64-3173.34-10290.727.963.980.0586305
485259.91128466.6714917.6397520.48-8520.28-14636.751.753.50.0587104.99
592996.1912665022211.1787252.87-6711.81-15766.263.313.310.0687749.68
677456.87125741.6726061.1776679.41-7549.85-30171.873.452.470.0576454.74
748098.0112665019190.1964926.27-11173.85-35773.391.721.720.0384008.17
812135.42128466.6715417.9266455.49-27801.98-75875.240.551.110.00731011.29
911823.09127558.3319266.8168312.4-24608.91-95989.820.781.10.0061985.26
104231.3125741.6727777.4266673.95-19236.54-1003181.441.030.0021352.61

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 3 trading days. Profit factor is 3.98. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 33.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 3.15%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.058, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
GLENMARK Performance, X=3, Profit Factor:3.98

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019128 Mar 2019 (-0.06%)
2017105 May 2017 (-5.15%)
2015124 Dec 2015 (-0.09%)
2013228 Nov 2013 (-2.88%), 12 Dec 2013 (-0.37%)
2011216 Mar 2011 (2.13%), 23 Dec 2011 (-3.31%)
2008122 Oct 2008 (43.43%)
2006112 Jul 2006 (-0.02%)
2003120 Nov 2003 (1.65%)
2002119 Sep 2002 (3.31%)
2000128 Nov 2000 (-0.83%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1375659.99124833.3325261.6886859.64-3173.34-10290.727.963.980.0586305
atrtrail-15.1420949.721431121.4331147.8674385.98-6590.35-21567.554.731.290.0161496.41
atrtrail34.7917294.181431121.4329929.3464398.66-6590.35-21567.554.541.240.0141235.3
atrnil37.93552.521431121.4333546.0564398.66-9098.69-29095.493.691.010.0004339.47
atrtrail24.57-2958.621431121.4323178.4142932.44-6590.35-21567.553.520.96-0.0033-211.33
atrnil27.36-13744.861441028.5719981.1442932.44-9366.94-29095.492.130.85-0.014-981.78

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.98. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 33.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 3.15%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.058, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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