Study: Buy GMRINFRA when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy GMRINFRA when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy GMRINFRA at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
185456.18502822566266.1922796.8-4090.78-12396.911.531.950.0681709.12
2-6812.56502327468527.3230808.45-7516.33-29268.291.130.97-0.0035-136.25
3-46713.865022284411507.4347997.09-10709.9-32366.411.070.84-0.018-934.28
4-1471345018323613439.7369618.06-12157.78-38148.441.110.62-0.046-2942.68
5-2635545019313811278.9542361.11-15414.66-47778.660.730.45-0.084-5271.09
6-2438345017333412877.7937354.09-14022.92-43309.390.920.47-0.081-4876.68
7-2393895020304011175.7138455.94-15430.11-50145.770.720.48-0.079-4787.79
8-1865435022284410795.0736562.27-15144.09-52478.130.710.56-0.065-3730.86
9-1335975021294213759.1742455.24-14570.32-60641.40.940.68-0.041-2671.93
10-1497975019313817102.9355061.91-15314.59-57725.951.120.68-0.041-2995.93

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.95. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 56%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.85%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.068, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1185456.18502822566266.1922796.8-4090.78-12396.911.531.950.0681709.12
atrnil25.78-44574.863204331.7521787.4954870.12-11170.34-20699.791.950.91-0.012-707.54
atrtrail24.06-75721.9263204331.7515921.5854870.12-9166.36-18995.811.740.81-0.024-1201.94
atrtrail-15.35-1001016018423015900.0145567.19-9197.66-18995.811.730.74-0.032-1668.36
atrtrail34.89-11854961184329.5115072.1740805.93-9066.23-18995.811.660.7-0.04-1943.42
atrnil38.48-18155161134821.3128723.2140569.34-11561.51-27435.062.480.67-0.048-2976.25

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.95. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 56%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.85%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.068, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
GMRINFRA Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.95

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019519 Feb 2019 (0.32%), 27 Mar 2019 (2.56%), 23 May 2019 (5.99%), 18 Jun 2019 (-0.34%), 17 Oct 2019 (8.83%)
2018516 Jan 2018 (7.11%), 30 May 2018 (-0.55%), 21 Jun 2018 (0.31%), 20 Aug 2018 (-1.5%), 15 Oct 2018 (-0.6%)
2017216 Mar 2017 (-2.91%), 21 Apr 2017 (3.99%)
2016309 Feb 2016 (-2.44%), 23 Feb 2016 (4.0%), 29 Nov 2016 (4.35%)
2015317 Jun 2015 (0.78%), 09 Sep 2015 (-0.41%), 31 Dec 2015 (0.3%)
2014619 Feb 2014 (1.27%), 31 Jul 2014 (7.29%), 18 Aug 2014 (2.28%), 09 Oct 2014 (3.8%), 10 Dec 2014 (-1.56%), 30 Dec 2014 (0.88%)
2013222 Jul 2013 (0.29%), 14 Aug 2013 (-4.49%)
2012317 Feb 2012 (-0.46%), 25 May 2012 (0.98%), 05 Sep 2012 (-1.28%)
2011824 Jan 2011 (-1.7%), 14 Feb 2011 (4.45%), 29 Mar 2011 (1.56%), 31 May 2011 (-2.81%), 14 Jun 2011 (-1.97%), 10 Aug 2011 (-3.24%), 06 Sep 2011 (4.21%), 02 Dec 2011 (-0.71%)
2010416 Feb 2010 (0.53%), 31 May 2010 (-4.1%), 16 Jun 2010 (1.34%), 02 Dec 2010 (-1.42%)
2009118 May 2009 (11.4%)
2008405 Feb 2008 (-6.2%), 27 Mar 2008 (4.13%), 07 Jul 2008 (-2.88%), 04 Nov 2008 (4.25%)
2007403 Jan 2007 (-1.81%), 16 Mar 2007 (0.45%), 10 Apr 2007 (-1.64%), 24 Jul 2007 (0.06%)



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