Study: Sell GODREJCP when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell GODREJCP when there is Bearish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell GODREJCP at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
123992.15168917754.172770.4614454.58-2962.59-10844.880.941.110.0088142.81
214652.071688484504118.116102.88-3943.67-23360.661.041.040.003787.21
3-26779.77168858350.65051.6220799.55-5495.99-28911.250.920.94-0.0054-159.4
4-227747167739443.715367.7214664.83-6591.38-46543.970.810.63-0.039-1363.75
5-197425167709741.926593.8719779.36-6793.77-37472.120.970.7-0.032-1182.19
6-283292167779046.116150.3122998.05-8409.63-38810.410.730.63-0.041-1696.36
7-326849167719642.517291.3126865.67-8797.2-34944.240.830.61-0.045-1957.18
8-480759167689940.727084.0438654.84-9721.96-42081.780.730.5-0.061-2878.8
9-4659211676310437.728218.1548189.21-9458.32-48327.140.870.53-0.055-2789.95
10-4729281676610139.527978.931116.04-9896.4-52342.010.810.53-0.057-2831.91

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.11. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.17%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.071%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.0088, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1123992.15168917754.172770.4614454.58-2962.59-10844.880.941.110.0088142.81
atrtrail24.69-3725332005114925.59581.9428380.18-5779.95-12963.751.660.57-0.055-1862.67
atrnil26.77-5267951954315222.0515315.5228380.18-7798.44-13282.641.960.56-0.064-2701.51
atrtrail34.99-4644651985014825.257740.6937768.04-5753.38-12963.751.350.45-0.072-2345.78
atrnil39.07-7761941842316112.521629.4937768.04-7911.01-14190.092.730.39-0.098-4218.44
atrtrail-15.15-5849191974715023.865916.0135383.17-5753.14-12963.751.030.32-0.11-2969.13

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.11. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 54.17%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.071%, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.0088, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
GODREJCP Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.11

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019626 Mar 2019 (0.3%), 26 Apr 2019 (0.21%), 14 Jun 2019 (0.77%), 22 Aug 2019 (1.22%), 27 Oct 2019 (-1.71%), 11 Nov 2019 (0.44%)
2018802 Feb 2018 (1.2%), 15 Mar 2018 (1.58%), 05 Apr 2018 (-0.37%), 04 May 2018 (0.32%), 20 Jun 2018 (-0.38%), 27 Jul 2018 (-0.18%), 05 Sep 2018 (2.45%), 28 Dec 2018 (0.02%)
20171123 Jan 2017 (0.61%), 07 Feb 2017 (0.84%), 02 Mar 2017 (0.49%), 27 Mar 2017 (-1.1%), 18 May 2017 (-1.44%), 28 Jun 2017 (-0.95%), 02 Aug 2017 (-5.42%), 26 Sep 2017 (0.52%), 23 Oct 2017 (0.59%), 13 Nov 2017 (0.47%), 18 Dec 2017 (-0.25%)
20161007 Jan 2016 (1.32%), 17 Feb 2016 (-2.49%), 11 Apr 2016 (0.6%), 19 May 2016 (-0.44%), 13 Jun 2016 (-0.09%), 27 Jun 2016 (-0.46%), 13 Jul 2016 (1.15%), 22 Sep 2016 (0.48%), 13 Oct 2016 (-0.53%), 27 Oct 2016 (-1.84%)
20151030 Jan 2015 (-0.96%), 23 Feb 2015 (-2.39%), 12 Mar 2015 (3.27%), 22 Apr 2015 (3.39%), 26 May 2015 (-4.09%), 09 Jul 2015 (-2.17%), 28 Jul 2015 (-3.86%), 13 Aug 2015 (0.24%), 16 Oct 2015 (-0.05%), 16 Nov 2015 (-1.08%)
2014707 Jan 2014 (-2.05%), 07 Mar 2014 (2.14%), 17 Apr 2014 (1.37%), 26 May 2014 (-1.01%), 18 Jun 2014 (-0.56%), 15 Sep 2014 (-0.05%), 11 Dec 2014 (3.03%)
20131421 Jan 2013 (1.27%), 11 Feb 2013 (0.23%), 26 Feb 2013 (-0.99%), 18 Mar 2013 (0.29%), 03 Apr 2013 (1.39%), 08 May 2013 (-0.76%), 21 May 2013 (1.5%), 11 Jun 2013 (3.96%), 29 Jul 2013 (3.24%), 19 Aug 2013 (0.38%), 23 Sep 2013 (-1.62%), 11 Oct 2013 (0.51%), 28 Oct 2013 (-1.79%), 05 Dec 2013 (1.98%)
20121202 Jan 2012 (-2.83%), 14 Feb 2012 (-0.0%), 13 Apr 2012 (0.9%), 10 May 2012 (2.06%), 25 May 2012 (-2.79%), 10 Jul 2012 (0.76%), 07 Aug 2012 (-1.94%), 06 Sep 2012 (2.49%), 11 Oct 2012 (-1.22%), 05 Nov 2012 (0.89%), 14 Dec 2012 (0.7%), 31 Dec 2012 (-0.27%)
20111025 Jan 2011 (0.05%), 15 Mar 2011 (-1.21%), 25 Apr 2011 (1.19%), 16 May 2011 (1.14%), 16 Jun 2011 (-0.71%), 15 Jul 2011 (-0.13%), 26 Aug 2011 (-0.75%), 22 Sep 2011 (1.51%), 11 Nov 2011 (0.15%), 08 Dec 2011 (-0.95%)
20101020 Jan 2010 (0.35%), 26 Feb 2010 (-2.98%), 23 Mar 2010 (-0.93%), 27 Apr 2010 (1.75%), 24 May 2010 (-5.11%), 16 Jun 2010 (0.01%), 26 Jul 2010 (-5.31%), 31 Aug 2010 (-2.44%), 23 Sep 2010 (-1.7%), 16 Nov 2010 (-0.02%)
2009707 Jan 2009 (-0.27%), 13 Mar 2009 (0.42%), 10 Jun 2009 (1.85%), 10 Aug 2009 (0.59%), 14 Sep 2009 (-1.62%), 17 Oct 2009 (0.31%), 16 Nov 2009 (2.43%)
2008709 Jan 2008 (3.55%), 18 Mar 2008 (-0.27%), 22 May 2008 (0.81%), 25 Jun 2008 (1.3%), 01 Sep 2008 (1.16%), 17 Oct 2008 (-2.9%), 12 Dec 2008 (0.84%)
20071105 Feb 2007 (1.08%), 02 Mar 2007 (7.23%), 19 Mar 2007 (-1.32%), 25 Apr 2007 (3.26%), 04 Jun 2007 (-0.07%), 01 Aug 2007 (1.44%), 22 Aug 2007 (-0.22%), 18 Sep 2007 (0.25%), 04 Oct 2007 (1.07%), 28 Nov 2007 (-2.37%), 18 Dec 2007 (1.74%)
2006930 Jan 2006 (-2.95%), 23 Feb 2006 (-4.44%), 13 Mar 2006 (-1.02%), 17 Apr 2006 (1.52%), 21 Jul 2006 (4.34%), 01 Sep 2006 (-1.56%), 13 Oct 2006 (0.37%), 01 Nov 2006 (1.15%), 19 Dec 2006 (-0.76%)
2005706 Jan 2005 (2.22%), 07 Apr 2005 (0.93%), 06 Jun 2005 (-0.83%), 22 Aug 2005 (-0.71%), 13 Oct 2005 (1.08%), 07 Nov 2005 (-0.65%), 20 Dec 2005 (0.51%)
2004708 Jan 2004 (2.1%), 18 Feb 2004 (0.78%), 17 May 2004 (-3.15%), 31 May 2004 (2.5%), 07 Sep 2004 (1.56%), 15 Oct 2004 (-0.91%), 18 Nov 2004 (-0.88%)
20031130 Jan 2003 (0.05%), 14 Feb 2003 (-0.35%), 07 Mar 2003 (0.8%), 21 Apr 2003 (-1.54%), 21 May 2003 (-1.9%), 20 Jun 2003 (-1.13%), 04 Jul 2003 (-0.38%), 28 Jul 2003 (0.98%), 15 Oct 2003 (0.5%), 12 Nov 2003 (0.59%), 01 Dec 2003 (-1.54%)
2002929 Jan 2002 (3.13%), 13 Feb 2002 (2.01%), 24 Apr 2002 (-0.97%), 17 May 2002 (4.14%), 03 Jul 2002 (2.9%), 19 Jul 2002 (-5.07%), 12 Sep 2002 (-0.75%), 30 Oct 2002 (-1.14%), 14 Nov 2002 (0.09%)
2001206 Nov 2001 (3.05%), 19 Dec 2001 (1.71%)



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