Study: Buy GODREJCP when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy GODREJCP when there is Bullish Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy GODREJCP at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
172942.6165808548.483877.6529288.7-2791.4-15630.161.391.310.021442.08
270005.45165838250.34666.9618866.49-3870.15-13854.931.211.220.018424.28
3152869165917455.155579.3726491.18-4795.33-17889.911.161.430.032926.48
4248651165848150.917498.3134802.7-4706.26-28440.371.591.650.0411506.98
5282433165917455.157484.6941166.01-5387.48-31559.631.391.710.0431711.71
6216333165858051.528298.2438747.1-6112.73-25963.31.361.440.0311311.11
7253428165927355.768542.9160324.83-7294.8-30825.691.171.480.0311535.92
8303984165887753.339153.9455626.45-6513.8-32844.041.411.610.0381842.33
9378446165887753.3310429.8649825.99-7004.95-30458.721.491.70.0452293.61
10390896165927355.7610091.6149129.93-7363.46-31559.631.371.730.0472369.07
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 2 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil26.393331341917611539.7915483.4332375.12-7335.71-12244.212.111.390.0351744.16
atrnil310.763435421685311531.5522897.4644755.01-7565.42-16187.563.031.390.0332044.89
atrtrail35.061854191937611739.3811137.6835738.05-5649.95-12244.211.971.280.022960.72
atrtrail24.561836041967811839.810997.2623825.37-5713.4-12244.211.921.270.023936.76
atrtrail-15.5857787.691897411539.159322.5446859.34-5496.35-12244.211.71.090.0076305.75

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.39. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 39.79%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.87%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.035, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
GODREJCP Performance, Profit Factor:1.39

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019716 Apr 2019 (-2.09%), 15 May 2019 (4.52%), 06 Aug 2019 (5.96%), 09 Sep 2019 (6.41%), 11 Oct 2019 (5.88%), 30 Oct 2019 (-2.68%), 07 Nov 2019 (-2.84%)
2018816 Jan 2018 (-1.95%), 17 Jan 2018 (4.03%), 21 Feb 2018 (4.83%), 26 Mar 2018 (-2.53%), 18 Apr 2018 (-2.37%), 24 May 2018 (5.18%), 20 Aug 2018 (-2.48%), 16 Oct 2018 (-5.28%)
20171101 Feb 2017 (-2.33%), 16 Feb 2017 (4.69%), 16 Mar 2017 (-2.25%), 25 Apr 2017 (4.69%), 08 Jun 2017 (5.27%), 03 Jul 2017 (-2.59%), 25 Jul 2017 (4.32%), 29 Aug 2017 (7.25%), 04 Oct 2017 (-2.77%), 02 Nov 2017 (-2.53%), 23 Nov 2017 (5.06%)
20161201 Feb 2016 (-3.65%), 22 Feb 2016 (-3.65%), 01 Mar 2016 (7.21%), 11 May 2016 (-2.87%), 25 May 2016 (5.52%), 22 Jun 2016 (-2.6%), 30 Jun 2016 (-2.66%), 30 Aug 2016 (-2.5%), 31 Aug 2016 (5.44%), 07 Oct 2016 (-2.66%), 25 Oct 2016 (-2.6%), 30 Oct 2016 (-2.46%)
20151012 Feb 2015 (-4.1%), 04 Mar 2015 (-3.79%), 07 Apr 2015 (8.09%), 14 May 2015 (8.07%), 08 Jun 2015 (8.24%), 17 Jul 2015 (-3.12%), 01 Oct 2015 (8.67%), 05 Oct 2015 (-4.4%), 23 Oct 2015 (7.1%), 11 Dec 2015 (6.5%)
2014805 Feb 2014 (7.94%), 21 Mar 2014 (7.78%), 15 May 2014 (-3.39%), 05 Jun 2014 (-3.72%), 22 Jul 2014 (-2.49%), 30 Oct 2014 (-3.87%), 23 Dec 2014 (-3.89%), 24 Dec 2014 (8.09%)
20131717 Jan 2013 (-2.81%), 04 Feb 2013 (-2.93%), 18 Feb 2013 (-2.84%), 04 Mar 2013 (-2.99%), 07 Mar 2013 (-3.49%), 25 Mar 2013 (-3.87%), 23 Apr 2013 (7.51%), 25 Apr 2013 (-4.44%), 15 May 2013 (-3.53%), 04 Jun 2013 (-3.27%), 01 Jul 2013 (-3.64%), 13 Aug 2013 (-4.4%), 10 Sep 2013 (-3.66%), 25 Sep 2013 (6.93%), 22 Oct 2013 (-3.49%), 12 Nov 2013 (5.8%), 27 Dec 2013 (-2.91%)
20121107 Jan 2012 (5.81%), 20 Mar 2012 (-2.93%), 18 Apr 2012 (7.22%), 22 May 2012 (-4.54%), 29 Jun 2012 (7.05%), 21 Aug 2012 (-3.11%), 03 Oct 2012 (-3.11%), 23 Oct 2012 (-3.41%), 27 Nov 2012 (6.54%), 29 Nov 2012 (-4.31%), 19 Dec 2012 (6.39%)
20111115 Feb 2011 (-5.56%), 21 Mar 2011 (-4.27%), 30 Mar 2011 (7.21%), 03 May 2011 (-3.74%), 30 May 2011 (6.01%), 04 Jul 2011 (5.97%), 22 Aug 2011 (-3.73%), 30 Aug 2011 (-3.77%), 14 Oct 2011 (7.17%), 01 Dec 2011 (-3.68%), 13 Dec 2011 (-3.45%)
20101204 Jan 2010 (-4.56%), 06 Feb 2010 (-4.29%), 03 Mar 2010 (8.86%), 06 Apr 2010 (7.23%), 07 Apr 2010 (8.0%), 13 May 2010 (-4.92%), 04 Jun 2010 (11.72%), 16 Jul 2010 (-3.63%), 09 Aug 2010 (-3.7%), 03 Sep 2010 (7.72%), 26 Oct 2010 (7.86%), 27 Dec 2010 (9.13%)
2009705 Mar 2009 (-3.63%), 24 Mar 2009 (8.73%), 16 Jul 2009 (11.66%), 28 Aug 2009 (10.16%), 17 Sep 2009 (-4.66%), 07 Oct 2009 (-4.6%), 27 Oct 2009 (11.56%)
20081102 Jan 2008 (-5.26%), 04 Feb 2008 (14.92%), 21 Apr 2008 (7.44%), 12 Jun 2008 (-4.1%), 24 Jul 2008 (-4.52%), 14 Oct 2008 (-5.25%), 21 Oct 2008 (-5.54%), 22 Oct 2008 (-5.86%), 05 Nov 2008 (11.44%), 22 Dec 2008 (-4.28%), 23 Dec 2008 (-4.52%)
20071205 Jan 2007 (-3.5%), 20 Feb 2007 (-3.07%), 15 Mar 2007 (-4.09%), 17 May 2007 (7.82%), 22 Jun 2007 (-3.22%), 25 Jun 2007 (8.29%), 09 Aug 2007 (-3.05%), 10 Aug 2007 (-3.14%), 05 Sep 2007 (-2.68%), 29 Oct 2007 (8.39%), 03 Dec 2007 (9.93%), 04 Dec 2007 (-5.28%)
2006919 Jan 2006 (8.49%), 13 Feb 2006 (7.42%), 27 Feb 2006 (7.63%), 31 Mar 2006 (-4.62%), 19 Jun 2006 (16.19%), 25 Sep 2006 (9.28%), 30 Oct 2006 (-3.61%), 30 Nov 2006 (-3.4%), 26 Dec 2006 (-3.48%)
2005701 Mar 2005 (6.98%), 05 May 2005 (7.94%), 04 Jul 2005 (-4.07%), 05 Oct 2005 (-3.94%), 06 Oct 2005 (-4.06%), 26 Oct 2005 (-3.9%), 27 Oct 2005 (8.04%)
2004804 Feb 2004 (11.8%), 01 Apr 2004 (-4.99%), 20 May 2004 (-4.59%), 19 Jul 2004 (4.8%), 30 Sep 2004 (-3.44%), 01 Oct 2004 (-3.69%), 27 Oct 2004 (6.56%), 17 Dec 2004 (6.05%)
20031307 Jan 2003 (6.15%), 08 Jan 2003 (-3.54%), 03 Feb 2003 (-2.86%), 19 Feb 2003 (-3.11%), 02 Apr 2003 (-2.37%), 07 May 2003 (-3.25%), 23 May 2003 (-2.98%), 24 Jun 2003 (-3.17%), 16 Jul 2003 (-3.77%), 22 Aug 2003 (5.16%), 07 Oct 2003 (-4.19%), 03 Nov 2003 (-3.76%), 24 Nov 2003 (7.9%)
20021502 Jan 2002 (10.24%), 08 Feb 2002 (-4.58%), 01 Mar 2002 (-4.83%), 04 Mar 2002 (-5.57%), 08 Apr 2002 (9.12%), 09 Apr 2002 (-4.93%), 30 Apr 2002 (9.08%), 11 Jun 2002 (8.48%), 09 Jul 2002 (-4.67%), 23 Jul 2002 (-6.12%), 13 Aug 2002 (11.91%), 23 Oct 2002 (-3.77%), 05 Nov 2002 (-3.07%), 20 Nov 2002 (-2.57%), 21 Nov 2002 (-2.81%)
2001227 Sep 2001 (11.96%), 06 Dec 2001 (-5.66%)



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