Study: Buy GRANULES when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy GRANULES when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy GRANULES at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
118947.83862753567.275644.64-1227.89-1756.492.918.720.272368.48
230273.63862757119.5716359.45-6221.9-8691.311.143.430.143784.2
323226.27862756264.519907.83-7180.38-9490.510.872.620.132903.28
473638.368627513554.2523734.94-3843.56-5189.623.5310.580.269204.79
556356.758627511306.0122048.19-5739.67-9181.641.975.910.217044.59
657014.098627511066.5919879.52-4692.71-5189.622.367.070.257126.76
789854.668627516565.9620506.91-4770.56-9341.323.4710.420.3111231.83
81032968627519698.227258.15-7446.61-11896.212.657.940.2912912
990919.748627516640.3724337.35-4461.23-8622.753.7311.190.3111364.97
1099280.438627518825.5329156.63-6836.38-13572.852.758.260.2612410.05

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 9 trading days. Profit factor is 11.19. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 75%, which is good. Average return per trade is 5.68%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
GRANULES Performance, X=9, Profit Factor:11.2

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017105 May 2017 (6.31%)
2015126 Mar 2015 (12.17%)
2014117 Oct 2014 (5.19%)
2012115 May 2012 (9.04%)
2010308 Jan 2010 (7.75%), 31 Mar 2010 (9.46%), 27 Oct 2010 (-0.15%)
2007113 Jul 2007 (-4.31%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1990919.748627516640.3724337.35-4461.23-8622.753.7311.190.3111364.97
atrnil24.2589833.868627518161.2124801.49-9566.7-10394.681.95.70.2511229.23
atrtrail24.2589833.868627518161.2124801.49-9566.7-10394.681.95.70.2511229.23
atrtrail35.7578975.968627516351.5633690.29-9566.7-10394.681.715.130.189871.99
atrnil39.6294714.585362.525249.7333690.29-10511.38-12400.752.440.1811839.31
atrtrail-17.2555810.718627512490.6828940.55-9566.7-10394.681.313.920.156976.34
50trail-15.3826067.76844509705.4226467.13-3188.49-3471.813.043.040.0953258.47
50nil3225931.28844509671.311472.24-3188.49-3471.813.033.030.143241.41
50trail3225931.28844509671.311472.24-3188.49-3471.813.033.030.143241.41
50nil21.6213036.2844506447.547648.16-3188.49-3471.812.022.020.0921629.53
50trail21.6213036.2844506447.547648.16-3188.49-3471.812.022.020.0921629.53

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 11.19. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 75%, which is good. Average return per trade is 5.68%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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