Study: Buy GRASIM when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy GRASIM when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy GRASIM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
170531.05482424505745.8713050.4-2807.07-8859.52.052.050.0591469.4
212090648282058.337206.6130097.26-4043.94-16878.681.782.490.0632518.88
312748248282058.337644.9948523.43-4328.88-14030.831.772.470.0542655.88
416064548272156.259998.161750.66-5204.95-18781.671.922.470.0513346.77
517800148272156.2511159.5655053.76-5871.78-28027.021.92.440.0553708.35
681002.3148252352.0811242.2346896.55-8697.97-36064.441.291.40.0241687.55
710745148282058.3311247.6546224.58-10374.14-33500.781.081.520.0312238.57
815046248282058.3312585.456559.14-10096.47-39776.611.251.750.043134.62
919249948272156.2514874.2162795.7-9957.36-36260.211.491.920.0484010.39
1021267748301862.513621.1466720.43-10886.51-42569.041.252.090.0524430.77

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 2 trading days. Profit factor is 2.49. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 58.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.26%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.063, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
GRASIM Performance, X=2, Profit Factor:2.49

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019301 Apr 2019 (-2.99%), 16 Apr 2019 (-2.22%), 24 May 2019 (0.1%)
2018117 Apr 2018 (0.86%)
2017220 Mar 2017 (1.66%), 20 Apr 2017 (2.85%)
2016412 May 2016 (0.2%), 02 Aug 2016 (0.08%), 06 Sep 2016 (1.58%), 30 Dec 2016 (0.74%)
2015104 Aug 2015 (-0.33%)
2014222 Jul 2014 (-2.13%), 22 Sep 2014 (-2.43%)
2012330 Jul 2012 (4.64%), 14 Sep 2012 (-0.03%), 30 Nov 2012 (-2.43%)
2011301 Jun 2011 (-2.18%), 12 Oct 2011 (-0.61%), 26 Oct 2011 (-0.48%)
2010303 Sep 2010 (5.14%), 04 Nov 2010 (0.52%), 02 Dec 2010 (0.59%)
2009416 Mar 2009 (-0.37%), 23 Apr 2009 (5.7%), 18 May 2009 (2.8%), 03 Jun 2009 (9.0%)
2007111 Oct 2007 (-0.2%)
2006628 Feb 2006 (3.88%), 03 Apr 2006 (1.07%), 02 May 2006 (-2.65%), 14 Sep 2006 (4.77%), 12 Oct 2006 (1.84%), 30 Oct 2006 (1.23%)
2005312 Jul 2005 (-1.34%), 14 Sep 2005 (3.71%), 07 Nov 2005 (2.75%)
2003520 May 2003 (2.98%), 18 Jun 2003 (-0.13%), 31 Jul 2003 (5.48%), 29 Oct 2003 (8.62%), 15 Dec 2003 (-2.14%)
2001203 Jan 2001 (-2.91%), 09 Apr 2001 (-4.59%)
2000126 May 2000 (-1.85%)
1999307 Jun 1999 (10.24%), 07 Jul 1999 (15.05%), 17 Sep 1999 (-8.44%)
1996114 Oct 1996 (2.82%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1212090648282058.337206.6130097.26-4043.94-16878.681.782.490.0632518.88
atrnil37.3122535151213041.1820326.7337528.39-6717.02-15432.673.032.120.0634418.64
atrtrail34.3913176151232845.112228.2837528.39-5338.89-14263.522.291.880.0442583.56
atrnil25.1215228151252649.0213228.7825018.93-6863-15432.671.931.850.0562985.91
atrtrail23.6311233551232845.111383.6625018.93-5338.89-14263.522.131.750.0452202.65
atrtrail-15.0886849.0551232845.110275.5649749.52-5338.89-14263.521.921.580.031702.92

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.49. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 58.33%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.26%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.063, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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