Study: Sell GRASIM when there is Bearish Centerline Crossover in MACD

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell GRASIM when there is Bearish Centerline Crossover in MACD" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell GRASIM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
16814.1796366.672906.167699.65-3540.94-4648.410.821.640.04757.13
2-6451.2994544.443865.418742.61-4382.59-9089.620.880.71-0.029-716.81
3-9396.7694544.445038.6311212.41-5910.26-18705.550.850.68-0.027-1044.08
4-14533.7693633.337533.398153.98-6188.99-20682.791.220.61-0.038-1614.86
5-19696.0193633.3310574.0612858.19-8569.7-22987.21.230.62-0.04-2188.45
6-18178.6995455.566047.1412416.91-12103.6-19551.720.50.62-0.038-2019.85
7-27997.8495455.565821.6915586.36-14276.57-20285.060.410.51-0.054-3110.87
8-55290.8394544.446112.8617470.82-15948.45-29357.150.380.31-0.093-6143.43
9-39073.6394544.448012.318686.43-14224.57-20199.150.560.45-0.071-4341.51
10-44884.3294544.448607.7514645.52-15863.07-22295.820.540.43-0.075-4987.15

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.64. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 66.67%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.38%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.04, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-116814.1796366.672906.167699.65-3540.94-4648.410.821.640.04757.13
atrnil39.5523679.3113827.2724617.5738821.95-6271.68-10184.683.931.470.0292152.66
atrnil27.0913761.01114736.3614758.6725881.3-6467.67-10184.682.281.30.0231251
atrtrail-15.91-7123.96112918.1818687.1331229.67-4944.25-8530.443.780.84-0.012-647.63
atrtrail35.36-9467.45112918.1817515.3822360.6-4944.25-8530.443.540.79-0.019-860.68
atrtrail24.45-21144.37112918.1811676.9214907.07-4944.25-8530.442.360.52-0.057-1922.22

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.64. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Strategy is showing mildly bearish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 66.67%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.38%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.04, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Win loss ratio is less than 1 which is bad, avoid this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
GRASIM Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.64

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019127 Oct 2019 (-1.67%)
2018117 May 2018 (1.88%)
2017117 Jan 2017 (-2.32%)
2008103 Jan 2008 (0.24%)
2004113 Jul 2004 (2.42%)
2002225 Jan 2002 (0.21%), 09 Sep 2002 (0.11%)
1999115 Mar 1999 (3.85%)
1996110 Apr 1996 (-1.32%)



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