Study: Buy GRASIM when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy GRASIM when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy GRASIM at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
118799.091913668.422100.497022.93-1417.87-4442.971.483.210.08989.43
227138.291914573.683208.479535.08-3556.07-9466.10.92.530.0721428.33
329055.821914573.683678.7611462.38-4489.37-11169.340.822.290.0621529.25
434755.611913668.424678.2913254.44-4343.7-11426.311.082.330.0631829.24
530527.581910952.636642.8420287.4-3988.98-12520.461.671.850.0461606.71
610569.031911857.894868.4416703.3-5372.98-12111.290.911.250.017556.26
7-17683.711981142.117141.3827928.99-6801.34-17523.751.050.76-0.02-930.72
8-13869.251991047.376207.0121842.77-6973.23-18044.190.890.8-0.017-729.96
9-12469.71910952.636041.3713863.06-8098.16-20990.180.750.83-0.015-656.3
10-6351.791910952.637210.9320524.09-8717.9-18315.40.830.92-0.007-334.3

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 3.21. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 68.42%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.49%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.08, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
GRASIM Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:3.21

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019107 Jun 2019 (1.09%)
2017101 Mar 2017 (-1.05%)
2016118 Apr 2016 (0.06%)
2015226 Aug 2015 (2.7%), 30 Nov 2015 (-0.2%)
2014103 Apr 2014 (0.0%)
2012102 Aug 2012 (-0.25%)
2011103 Nov 2011 (0.68%)
2010130 Nov 2010 (1.78%)
2009128 Apr 2009 (-0.37%)
2007118 Jul 2007 (3.51%)
2005116 Sep 2005 (-0.16%)
2004124 Sep 2004 (0.57%)
2003117 Feb 2003 (0.09%)
2002111 Mar 2002 (-2.22%)
2001115 Jan 2001 (0.74%)
1999118 Jun 1999 (1.49%)
1998111 Jun 1998 (0.33%)
1996111 Jun 1996 (0.6%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1118799.091913668.422100.497022.93-1417.87-4442.971.483.210.08989.43
atrtrail25.2118202.861991047.377603.1317490.81-5022.53-10132.71.511.360.025958.05
atrtrail35.8413444.331991047.377074.426236.22-5022.53-10132.71.411.270.017707.6
atrnil28.1118880.341981142.1111663.0517490.81-6765.82-11954.481.721.250.021993.7
atrtrail-163882.331991047.376011.9618931.48-5022.53-10132.71.21.080.0059204.33
atrnil313.42-6496.231951426.3217187.0126236.22-6602.23-11954.482.60.93-0.0063-341.91

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.21. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 68.42%, which is good. Average return per trade is 0.49%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.08, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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