Study: Buy HCLTECH when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HCLTECH when above 200 SMA and near 50 SMA and above 50 SMA and RSI is above 50" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HCLTECH at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
111954.8346262056.522152.685742.98-2200.74-5903.750.981.270.022259.89
237806.74462323504512.5918806.36-2868.82-8367.321.571.570.038821.89
355834.2346262056.525419.2836313.71-4253.35-11340.611.271.660.0371213.79
449489.846291763.045451.6819352.23-6388.76-17544.840.851.460.0321075.87
530111.346281860.875895.6916819.77-7498.23-23188.170.791.220.018654.59
647427.3946262056.527024.3819560.32-6760.32-18335.211.041.350.0281031.03
736618.6446262056.526941.5718714.77-7193.11-15871.480.971.250.021796.06
837175.7246262056.527122.3729143.18-7400.3-19384.530.961.250.019808.17
921108.9646252154.357689.9928072.15-8149.56-19009.320.941.120.01458.89
1010655.5846242252.178418.7327806.98-8699.73-44287.320.971.060.0044231.64
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil310.5116656047182938.319710.1639717.49-6490.44-11364.683.041.880.0593543.83
50nil33.797911.8164244037.58996.3511517.29-2950.01-3958.883.051.830.0591529.87
atrtrail3610609157263145.619214.5239717.49-4306.03-11364.682.141.790.0441861.24
atrtrail25.0994085.2357263145.618752.7726478.33-4306.03-11364.682.031.70.0451650.62
50nil22.4771268.0672324044.445962.797721.21-2988.53-3958.8821.60.049989.83
atrtrail-16.675565.6357263145.618040.4832837.57-4306.03-11364.681.871.570.0361325.71
50trail-14.0959639.769244534.787295.9722520.64-2565.86-3901.982.841.520.032864.34
50trail32.9357549.1271264536.626689.611311.02-2586.23-3901.982.591.490.037810.55
50trail22.251381.8974304440.545687.487678.19-2710.05-3901.982.11.430.037694.35
atrnil27.663665.4147192840.4312987.6826478.33-6539.31-11364.681.991.350.031354.58

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.88. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 38.3%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.77%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.059, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Average holding period is on the higher side, note this before entering the trade that you you may need to hold the positions for a longer time.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HCLTECH Performance, Profit Factor:1.88

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019131 May 2019 (-2.45%)
2018423 Mar 2018 (8.9%), 03 Jul 2018 (6.44%), 28 Nov 2018 (-3.47%), 04 Dec 2018 (-3.25%)
2017510 Feb 2017 (-2.56%), 09 May 2017 (6.41%), 10 Jul 2017 (5.86%), 13 Sep 2017 (6.07%), 11 Dec 2017 (-1.83%)
2016304 Nov 2016 (-2.33%), 02 Dec 2016 (-2.81%), 08 Dec 2016 (8.05%)
2015115 Jan 2015 (9.01%)
2014622 Apr 2014 (-2.5%), 13 May 2014 (-2.94%), 29 May 2014 (-3.82%), 10 Jun 2014 (10.31%), 13 Nov 2014 (-2.74%), 30 Dec 2014 (-3.15%)
2013307 Jan 2013 (5.86%), 07 May 2013 (-3.31%), 10 Jun 2013 (7.21%)
2012204 Jun 2012 (-2.85%), 05 Jul 2012 (-2.69%)
2011330 Mar 2011 (-2.89%), 06 Jul 2011 (-2.48%), 20 Jul 2011 (-2.3%)
2010318 Feb 2010 (-3.86%), 22 Jun 2010 (-3.82%), 16 Jul 2010 (8.37%)
2007109 Jul 2007 (-3.71%)
2006328 Mar 2006 (9.33%), 21 Apr 2006 (-5.22%), 27 Dec 2006 (-4.7%)
2005608 Feb 2005 (-3.43%), 28 Feb 2005 (-3.29%), 03 Mar 2005 (9.52%), 10 May 2005 (-4.28%), 30 May 2005 (11.83%), 09 Nov 2005 (15.09%)
2004321 Jul 2004 (11.78%), 18 Nov 2004 (-2.88%), 24 Nov 2004 (-2.86%)
2003101 Oct 2003 (17.49%)
2001216 Jan 2001 (19.86%), 16 Feb 2001 (-5.68%)



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