Study: Sell HCLTECH when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell HCLTECH when RSI is below 50 and there is Bearish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell HCLTECH at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
156607.091881044.4410386.0831972.79-2648.15-7328.013.923.140.0763144.84
243715.0118995010643.4529036.88-5786.23-18367.771.841.840.0512428.61
3-1797.371810855.566750.2918208.17-8662.54-27551.660.780.97-0.0022-99.85
4-23635.181881044.449421.5117223.78-9900.73-36401.590.950.76-0.023-1313.07
5-63550.881899506727.1115726.06-13788.32-52237.740.490.49-0.047-3530.6
6-23543.471810855.569785.2924250.18-15174.55-73075.550.640.81-0.015-1307.97
7-34573.181871138.8914165.5728468.61-12157.47-79627.641.170.74-0.02-1920.73
8-33437.331871138.8915183.9833906.44-12702.29-74507.71.20.76-0.019-1857.63
9-1010151899507393.9823016.16-18617.83-80988.180.40.4-0.059-5611.92
10-92708.831881044.449145.1524380.61-16587-75689.220.550.44-0.057-5150.49

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 3.14. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.076, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
HCLTECH Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:3.14

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2019126 Jul 2019 (-1.4%)
2018102 May 2018 (7.48%)
2017213 Jun 2017 (-0.77%), 26 Oct 2017 (1.62%)
2015108 Jan 2015 (-0.73%)
2014116 Oct 2014 (9.08%)
2012208 Oct 2012 (-0.36%), 07 Dec 2012 (-1.19%)
2008207 Mar 2008 (0.48%), 02 Dec 2008 (3.88%)
2007102 Nov 2007 (-1.86%)
2006210 Apr 2006 (2.13%), 24 Jul 2006 (-3.66%)
2004209 Mar 2004 (0.9%), 25 Oct 2004 (-0.48%)
2003115 Sep 2003 (-0.37%)
2001211 Apr 2001 (15.99%), 30 Jul 2001 (-2.42%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1156607.091881044.4410386.0831972.79-2648.15-7328.013.923.140.0763144.84
atrtrail24.37-2792.851971236.8411897.6925657.65-7173.06-19830.721.660.97-0.003-146.99
atrtrail34.83-25202.951851327.7812891.5921354.32-6896.99-19830.721.870.72-0.031-1400.16
atrtrail-15.56-33269.711851327.7811278.2416257.52-6896.99-19830.721.640.63-0.044-1848.32
atrnil28.37-67835.071961331.5816111.2725657.65-12654.05-35370.391.270.59-0.052-3570.27
atrnil310.28-82434.671841422.2222877.9631769.49-12424.75-35370.391.840.53-0.062-4579.7

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 3.14. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 44.44%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 1.57%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.076, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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