Study: Buy HCLTECH when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HCLTECH when RSI is above 50 and there is Bullish Crossover in MACD and ADX is Trending" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HCLTECH at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
138779.59422121504368.5315551.74-2521.88-8848.051.731.730.044923.32
2-9025.89422121504831.7513716.81-5261.56-19777.50.920.92-0.0068-214.9
3-29884.9442222052.385998.9620787.29-8093.1-28511.220.740.82-0.016-711.55
4-48948.8542251759.525252.119448.64-10603.03-44711.280.50.73-0.022-1165.45
5-13862842192345.246485.8316887.91-11385.14-38707.40.570.47-0.059-3300.66
6-10824041202148.786663.417109.14-11500.35-38354.230.580.55-0.046-2639.99
7-53752.6441212051.227731.0521607.67-10805.24-30407.910.720.75-0.024-1311.04
8-44501.2441182343.99842.5921078.71-9637.73-30160.691.020.8-0.019-1085.4
913174.5741212051.2210868.1234190.97-10752.8-37612.571.011.060.005321.33
105337.141192246.3412677.3730074.33-10706.05-42415.681.181.020.0019130.17

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 1 trading days. Profit factor is 1.73. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 50%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.46%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.044, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-1138779.59422121504368.5315551.74-2521.88-8848.051.731.730.044923.32
atrtrail24.7432814.9646222447.838676.220275.48-6585.89-18924.861.321.210.017713.37
atrnil310.58-1885.243113225.5823330.8135685.13-8078.88-26035.742.890.99-0.00066-43.84
atrtrail35.33-5880.4146212545.657275.4428505.84-6346.59-18924.861.150.96-0.0032-127.83
atrnil26.59-27418.6846153132.6115003.0123790.09-8143.99-26035.741.840.89-0.011-596.06
atrtrail-15.72-19965.6246212545.656604.7232967.94-6346.59-18924.861.040.87-0.011-434.04

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 1.73. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 50%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 0.46%, which is not very high, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Sharpe Ratio is 0.044, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HCLTECH Performance, X=1, Profit Factor:1.73

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2020524 Jan 2020 (-0.55%), 11 Feb 2020 (0.56%), 07 Jul 2020 (-2.9%), 14 Sep 2020 (-0.28%), 09 Oct 2020 (1.17%)
2019124 Apr 2019 (-0.46%)
2018225 Sep 2018 (-2.35%), 31 Oct 2018 (-4.42%)
2017103 May 2017 (-2.05%)
2015113 Jan 2015 (-0.3%)
2014531 Jan 2014 (-0.64%), 14 Feb 2014 (0.34%), 22 Sep 2014 (1.48%), 13 Oct 2014 (-1.87%), 05 Nov 2014 (0.85%)
2013128 Aug 2013 (3.83%)
2012413 Mar 2012 (-0.06%), 07 Sep 2012 (-0.48%), 04 Oct 2012 (-2.63%), 23 Nov 2012 (0.55%)
2011130 Jun 2011 (0.29%)
2010215 Feb 2010 (-0.19%), 30 Nov 2010 (1.81%)
2009312 Aug 2009 (7.78%), 17 Sep 2009 (-1.05%), 23 Oct 2009 (0.49%)
2008204 Feb 2008 (-0.4%), 18 Dec 2008 (3.51%)
2007231 Oct 2007 (-1.62%), 26 Nov 2007 (-1.14%)
2006316 Jan 2006 (-0.86%), 31 Mar 2006 (1.22%), 08 Aug 2006 (2.16%)
2004201 Oct 2004 (-0.38%), 25 Nov 2004 (1.33%)
2003403 Feb 2003 (-1.85%), 04 Jun 2003 (5.53%), 24 Nov 2003 (1.87%), 31 Dec 2003 (1.87%)
2002103 Jan 2002 (3.88%)
2001220 Apr 2001 (2.4%), 03 Aug 2001 (2.95%)



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