Study: Buy HDIL when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HDIL when near 200 SMA and above 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HDIL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 4 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 2.1. Strategy is showing mildly bullish results but we advice not to take a call solely on the basis of this study. Percentage of profitable trades is 29.41%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is 3.54%, which is very good. Sharpe Ratio is 0.062, which is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HDIL Performance, Profit Factor:2.1

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016306 Apr 2016 (12.55%), 20 Sep 2016 (-2.78%), 05 Oct 2016 (-4.62%)
2015222 Jun 2015 (-6.43%), 06 Jul 2015 (-4.42%)
2014328 Jan 2014 (-5.94%), 16 Oct 2014 (16.39%), 03 Dec 2014 (-3.93%)
2012415 Feb 2012 (12.05%), 01 Mar 2012 (-7.47%), 25 Jun 2012 (6.69%), 20 Jul 2012 (-4.2%)
2010303 Mar 2010 (-0.34%), 23 Aug 2010 (-3.24%), 06 Oct 2010 (-3.28%)
2009205 May 2009 (-7.98%), 07 May 2009 (67.13%)

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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