Study: Buy HDIL when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy HDIL when there is Golden Cross (50 DMA > 200 DMA)" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy HDIL at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
Although, strategy looks good but profit factor on day 1 is less than minimum accepted value so avoid this, see below for further analysis.

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 0.87. Number of signals (total trades) generated is low, don't trade solely on the basis of this study. Profit factor is showing that this strategy doesn't give any edge over rendomness and it is only as good as tossing a coin and doing the trade. Percentage of profitable trades is 25%, which is not acceptable. Avoid this strategy. Average return per trade is -0.53%, we advise you not to use this strategy.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
HDIL Performance, Profit Factor:0.872

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2017128 Apr 2017 (-4.47%)
2016104 May 2016 (14.05%)
2015128 Feb 2015 (-5.6%)
2013113 Dec 2013 (14.64%)
2012317 Apr 2012 (-6.25%), 10 Aug 2012 (-4.73%), 09 Oct 2012 (-4.39%)
2009102 Jun 2009 (-7.47%)

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.

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